Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well

Are Pluvial and Fluvial Floods on the Rise?

The aim of this paper is accurately framed in its title: Are pluvial and fluvial (river) floods on the rise? First, physical mechanisms that drive changes in hazard of pluvial and fluvial floods were examined. Then, a review of literature was undertaken on detection and an attribution of changes in hazard of pluvial and fluvial floods in observation records for past to present, as well as in model-based projections for the future. Various aspects, factors, processes and mechanisms, as well as various indices of interest were considered. There is quite a common, even if not scientifically justified, belief that, generally, floods are on the rise. However, in this paper, a balanced, knowledge-based assessment was undertaken, with discussion and interpretation, including caveats and indicating considerable departures from such a flat-rate statement. Observation records show that precipitation extremes have been intensifying on a global scale and for many regions. A formal detection and attribution analysis shows that intensification of rainfall events may have been influenced by greenhouse gas forcing of anthropogenic origin. Frequency and magnitude of pluvial floods is on the rise with increasing intense precipitation, while changes of river floods are more complex. High river discharges were found to increase in some regions, but to decrease in other regions, so that no general corollaries can be drawn at the global scale. Heavy rainfall events and pluvial floods are projected to become, almost ubiquitously, more frequent and more intense with progressing climate change, while frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods are likely to increase in many but not all regions

Severe Drought in the Spring of 2020 in Poland—More of the Same?

Two consecutive dry years, 2018 and 2019, a warm winter in 2019/20, and a very dry spring in 2020 led to the development of severe drought in Poland. In this paper, changes in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the interval from 1971 to the end of May 2020 are examined. The values of SPEI (based on 12, 24 and 30 month windows, i.e., SPEI 12, SPEI 24 and SPEI 30) were calculated with the help of the Penman–Monteith equation. Changes in soil moisture contents were also examined from January 2000 to May 2020, based on data from the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center, presenting increasing water shortages in a central belt of Poland. The study showed that the 2020 spring drought was among the most severe events in the analyzed period and presented decreasing trends of SPEI at most stations located in central Poland. This study also determined changes in soil moisture contents from January 2000 to May 2020 that indicate a decreasing tendency. Cumulative water shortages from year to year led to the development of severe drought in the spring of 2020, as reflected in very low SPEI values and low soil moisture

Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves

The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: Małopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in Małopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of Małopolska-Kraków, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of Małopolska

Interventions of the State Fire Services in the Wielkopolska region (Poland) triggered by extreme precipitation 

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Precipitation extremes have been intensifying with the warming of climate on a global scale and in most regions of the world (Sun &amp;lt;em&amp;gt;et al.&amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;, J. Clim. 2021), because in warmer air more water vapor can be stored. According to the Clausius&amp;amp;#8211;Clapeyron law, this sensitivity is 6&amp;amp;#8211;7% K&amp;amp;#8722;1. Analysis of the 99&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;th&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; percentile of precipitation for Poland for the two periods of 1989&amp;amp;#8211;2018 and 1959&amp;amp;#8211;1988 (Pi&amp;amp;#324;skwar, Int. J. of Climatology 2022), &amp;amp;#160;indicate an increase in sensitivity (6.06%/&amp;amp;#176;C and 5.26%/&amp;amp;#176;C, respectively), and therefore the potential for more extreme precipitation is growing.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;In this research we analyze the number of interventions of the State Fire Services in Wielkopolska Region triggered by extreme precipitation. Data (23887 interventions with longitude and latitude) were collected for the period 2010-2021 by 71 units of the Wielkopolska State Fire Service located in the region. Every intervention was linked to the nearest precipitation station (103 gauge stations data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management IMGW-PIB). A value of up to 20 km was considered as a representative distance (17810 interventions). Analyses revealed that the highest number of interventions occurred in 2010 (daily maximum of 530 during 24&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;th&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; of July 2010 with the highest 24h precipitation of 59.5mm; nearly 3% of all interventions). The three highest daily number of interventions in relation to one station occurred in 2021: 9&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;th&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; of July (99 interventions, with 24h precipitation of 18.6mm and 48h of 69.5 mm, on this day: 326 interventions in Wielkopolska region) and two during 22&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;nd&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; of June: 85 interventions by 24h precipitation of 136.9mm (Gruszczyn, near Poznan) and 82 interventions by 24h precipitation of 79.4mm (Poznan; both densely populated and impermeable areas). The distance between stations of Poznan and Gruszczyn is only 15.7km. It illustrates, how local and sometimes not recorded is extreme precipitation. For interventions, when precipitation (24h and 5-day) has been not recorded, we use the radar data from IMGW-PIB. The aim of this study is to examine, how extreme precipitation induced interventions of the units of State Fire Service and also to identify the most vulnerable regions in Wielkopolska.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;strong&amp;gt;Acknowledgements: &amp;lt;/strong&amp;gt;Research has been supported by the National Science Centre of Poland [project number 2018/31/B/HS4/03223].&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;</jats:p

Heat-Related Mortality in Two Regions of Poland: Focus on Urban and Rural Areas during the Most Severe and Long-Lasting Heatwaves

The vast majority of studies on heat-related mortality are focused on large cities. The aim of this study is to fill this research gap and to estimate the impact of high temperatures on the risk of death in smaller towns and villages. The results show that increased mortality is not only a problem in large cities. The risk of death, although usually slightly lower than in highly populated areas, may be higher for the age-related risk group. At temperatures above 35 °C, it may exceed 1.3 in smaller towns and even 1.6 in villages. The increase in mortality during five selected heat waves of high intensity and long duration was also studied for two regions of Poland: Małopolska and Wielkopolska. Towns with a population of less than 10,000 in Małopolska region, during the 2006 heatwave, experienced an increase in the number of deaths by as much as 18%. At the same time in the largest city of Małopolska-Kraków, the death toll rose by 4%. This paper also presents some differences between regions in terms of the impact of heat waves: in the lowland region of Wielkopolska, the mortality rate is generally higher than in the upland region of Małopolska.</jats:p