How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?

The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strong the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behavior, i.e., how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by the network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behavior in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behavior of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions

The role of asymmetric interactions on the effect of habitat destruction in mutualistic networks

Plant-pollinator mutualistic networks are asymmetric in their interactions: specialist plants are pollinated by generalist animals, while generalist plants are pollinated by a broad involving specialists and generalists. It has been suggested that this asymmetric ---or disassortative--- assemblage could play an important role in determining the equal susceptibility of specialist and generalist plants under habitat destruction. At the core of the argument lies the observation that specialist plants, otherwise candidates to extinction, could cope with the disruption thanks to their interaction with generalist pollinators. We present a theoretical framework that supports this thesis. We analyze a dynamical model of a system of mutualistic plants and pollinators, subject to the destruction of their habitat. We analyze and compare two families of interaction topologies, ranging from highly assortative to highly disassortative ones, as well as real pollination networks. We found that several features observed in natural systems are predicted by the mathematical model. First, there is a tendency to increase the asymmetry of the network as a result of the extinctions. Second, an entropy measure of the differential susceptibility to extinction of specialist and generalist species show that they tend to balance when the network is disassortative. Finally, the disappearance of links in the network, as a result of extinctions, shows that specialist plants preserve more connections than the corresponding plants in an assortative system, enabling them to resist the disruption.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches

How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?

The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centred on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strongly the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behaviour, i.e. how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by a network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behaviour in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behaviour of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe that this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions

Stock fluctuations are correlated and amplified across networks of interlocking directorates

Traded corporations are required by law to have a majority of outside directors on their board. This requirement allows the existence of directors who sit on the board of two or more corporations at the same time, generating what is commonly known as interlocking directorates. While research has shown that networks of interlocking directorates facilitate the transmission of information between corporations, little is known about the extent to which such interlocking networks can explain the fluctuations of stock price returns. Yet, this is a special concern since the risk of amplifying stock fluctuations is latent. To answer this question, here we analyze the board composition, traders’ perception, and stock performance of more than 1,500 US traded corporations from 2007-2011. First, we find that the fewer degrees of separation between two corporations in the interlocking network, the stronger the temporal correlation between their stock price returns. Second, we find that the centrality of traded corporations in the interlocking network correlates with the frequency at which financial traders talk about such corporations, and this frequency is in turn proportional to the corresponding traded volume. Third, we show that the centrality of corporations was negatively associated with their stock performance in 2008, the year of the big financial crash. These results suggest that the strategic decisions made by interlocking directorates are strongly followed by stock analysts and have the potential to correlate and amplify the movement of stock prices during financial crashes. These results may have relevant implications for scholars, investors, and regulators

Statistical mechanics of ecosystem assembly

We introduce a toy model of ecosystem assembly for which we are able to map out all assembly pathways generated by external invasions. The model allows to display the whole phase space in the form of an assembly graph whose nodes are communities of species and whose directed links are transitions between them induced by invasions. We characterize the process as a finite Markov chain and prove that it exhibits a unique set of recurrent states (the endstate of the process), which is therefore resistant to invasions. This also shows that the endstate is independent on the assembly history. The model shares all features with standard assembly models reported in the literature, with the advantage that all observables can be computed in an exact manner.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Food-web structure in relation to environmental gradients and predator-prey ratios in tank-bromeliad ecosystems

Little is known of how linkage patterns between species change along environmental gradients. The small, spatially discrete food webs inhabiting tank-bromeliads provide an excellent opportunity to analyse patterns of community diversity and food-web topology (connectance, linkage density, nestedness) in relation to key environmental variables (habitat size, detrital resource, incident radiation) and predators: prey ratios. We sampled 365 bromeliads in a wide range of understorey environments in French Guiana and used gut contents of invertebrates to draw the corresponding 365 connectance webs. At the bromeliad scale, habitat size (water volume) determined the number of species that constitute food-web nodes, the proportion of predators, and food-web topology. The number of species as well as the proportion of predators within bromeliads declined from open to forested habitats, where the volume of water collected by bromeliads was generally lower because of rainfall interception by the canopy. A core group of microorganisms and generalist detritivores remained relatively constant across environments. This suggests that (i) a highly-connected core ensures food-web stability and key ecosystem functions across environments, and (ii) larger deviations in food-web structures can be expected following disturbance if detritivores share traits that determine responses to environmental changes. While linkage density and nestedness were lower in bromeliads in the forest than in open areas, experiments are needed to confirm a trend for lower food-web stability in the understorey of primary forests

Emergence of structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks

Mutualistic networks are formed when the interactions between two classes of species are mutually beneficial. They are important examples of cooperation shaped by evolution. Mutualism between animals and plants plays a key role in the organization of ecological communities. Such networks in ecology have generically evolved a nested architecture independent of species composition and latitude - specialists interact with proper subsets of the nodes with whom generalists interact. Despite sustained efforts to explain observed network structure on the basis of community-level stability or persistence, such correlative studies have reached minimal consensus. Here we demonstrate that nested interaction networks could emerge as a consequence of an optimization principle aimed at maximizing the species abundance in mutualistic communities. Using analytical and numerical approaches, we show that because of the mutualistic interactions, an increase in abundance of a given species results in a corresponding increase in the total number of individuals in the community, as also the nestedness of the interaction matrix. Indeed, the species abundances and the nestedness of the interaction matrix are correlated by an amount that depends on the strength of the mutualistic interactions. Nestedness and the observed spontaneous emergence of generalist and specialist species occur for several dynamical implementations of the variational principle under stationary conditions. Optimized networks, while remaining stable, tend to be less resilient than their counterparts with randomly assigned interactions. In particular, we analytically show that the abundance of the rarest species is directly linked to the resilience of the community. Our work provides a unifying framework for studying the emergent structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems

In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries at the global and national levels and show that these networks are significantly nested. This means that the less filled rows and columns of these networks' adjacency matrices tend to be subsets of the fuller rows and columns. Moreover, we show that nestedness remains relatively stable as the matrices become more filled over time and that this occurs because of a bias for industries that deviate from the networks' nestedness to disappear, and a bias for the missing industries that reduce nestedness to appear. This makes the appearance and disappearance of individual industries in each location predictable. We interpret the high level of nestedness observed in these networks in the context of the neutral model of development introduced by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009). We show that, for the observed fills, the model can reproduce the high level of nestedness observed in these networks only when we assume a high level of heterogeneity in the distribution of capabilities available in countries and required by products. In the context of the neutral model, this implies that the high level of nestedness observed in these economic networks emerges as a combination of both, the complementarity of inputs and heterogeneity in the number of capabilities available in countries and required by products. The stability of nestedness in industrial ecosystems, and the predictability implied by it, demonstrates the importance of the study of network properties in the evolution of economic networks.Comment: 26 page