Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are nmarked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness

Basalts erupted along the Tongan fore-arc during subduction initiation: evidence from geochronology of dredged rocks from the Tonga fore-arc and trench

A wide variety of different rock types were dredged from the Tonga fore arc and trench between 8000 and 3000 m water depths by the 1996 Boomerang voyage. 40Ar-39Ar whole rock and U-Pb zircon dating suggest that these fore arc rocks were erupted episodically from the Cretaceous to the Pliocene (102 to 2 Ma). The geochemistry suggests that MOR-type basalts and dolerites were erupted in the Cretaceous, that island arc tholeiites were erupted in the Eocene and that back arc basin and island arc tholeiite and boninite were erupted episodically after this time. The ages generally become younger northward suggesting that fore arc crust was created in the south at around 48–52 Ma and was extended northward between 35 and 28 Ma, between 9 and 15 Ma and continuing to the present-day. The episodic formation of the fore arc crust suggested by this data is very different to existing models for fore arc formation based on the Bonin-Marianas arc. The Bonin-Marianas based models postulate that the basaltic fore arc rocks were created between 52 and 49 Ma at the beginning of subduction above a rapidly foundering west-dipping slab. Instead a model where the 52 Ma basalts that are presently in a fore arc position were created in the arc-back arc transition behind the 57–35 Ma Loyalty-Three Kings arc and placed into a fore arc setting after arc reversal following the start of collision with New Caledonia is proposed for the oldest rocks in Tonga. This is followed by growth of the fore arc northward with continued eruption of back arc and boninitic magmas after that time

Electron Transport through Disordered Domain Walls: Coherent and Incoherent Regimes

We study electron transport through a domain wall in a ferromagnetic nanowire subject to spin-dependent scattering. A scattering matrix formalism is developed to address both coherent and incoherent transport properties. The coherent case corresponds to elastic scattering by static defects, which is dominant at low temperatures, while the incoherent case provides a phenomenological description of the inelastic scattering present in real physical systems at room temperature. It is found that disorder scattering increases the amount of spin-mixing of transmitted electrons, reducing the adiabaticity. This leads, in the incoherent case, to a reduction of conductance through the domain wall as compared to a uniformly magnetized region which is similar to the giant magnetoresistance effect. In the coherent case, a reduction of weak localization, together with a suppression of spin-reversing scattering amplitudes, leads to an enhancement of conductance due to the domain wall in the regime of strong disorder. The total effect of a domain wall on the conductance of a nanowire is studied by incorporating the disordered regions on either side of the wall. It is found that spin-dependent scattering in these regions increases the domain wall magnetoconductance as compared to the effect found by considering only the scattering inside the wall. This increase is most dramatic in the narrow wall limit, but remains significant for wide walls.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figure

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness

Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could help meet these challenges, if adequately supported by appropriate information on the future climate. We highlight some of the major challenges for crop breeders and growers in the coming decades, and describe the main characteristics of crop breeding techniques and other adaptation options for agriculture. We review recent uses of climate information to support crop breeding decisions and make recommendations for how this might be improved. We conclude that there is significant potential for breeders to work more closely with climate scientists and crop modellers in order to address the challenges of climate change. It is not yet clear how climate information can best be used. Fruitful areas of investigation include: provision of climate information to identify key target breeding traits and develop improved success criteria (e.g. for heat/drought stress); identification of those conditions under which multiple stress factors (for example, heat stress, mid-season drought stress, flowering drought stress, terminal drought stress) are important in breeding programmes; use of climate information to inform selection of trial sites; identification of the range of environments and locations under which crop trials should be performed (likely to be a wider range of environments than done at present); identification of appropriate duration of trials (likely to be longer than current trials, due to the importance of capturing extreme events); and definition of appropriate methods for incorporating climate information into crop breeding programmes, depending on the specific needs of the breeding programme and the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches. Better knowledge is needed on climate-related thresholds important to crop breeders, for example on the frequency and severity of extreme climate events relevant to the product profile, or to help provide tailored climate analyses (particularly for extreme events). The uncertainties inherent in climate and impact projections provide a particular challenge for translating climate science into actionable outcomes for agriculture. Further work is needed to explore relevant social and economic assumptions such as the level and distribution of real incomes, changing consumption patterns, health impacts, impacts on markets and trade, and the impact of legislation relating to conservation, the environment and climate change

Frecuencia de factores asociados a ideación suicida en pacientes con fibromialgia en dos hospitales de Lambayeque 2015

Objetivo: determinar la frecuencia de los factores asociados a ideación suicida en pacientes con fibromialgia en dos hospitales de Lambayeque, 2015. Material y Métodos: estudio descriptivo transversal con análisis exploratorio. Se entrevistó a pacientes con fibromialgia de consultorios externos de los hospitales Regional Lambayeque (Hospital 1) y Almanzor Aguinaga Asenjo de Chiclayo (Hospital 2). Se aplicaron 5 cuestionarios: la escala del centro de estudios epidemiológicos para depresión, escala de Zung para ansiedad, índice de calidad de sueño de Pittsburgh, escala de valoración análoga del dolor y la escala de ideación suicida de Beck, adaptada a población Lambayecana. Se realizó análisis univariado y bivariado exploratorio. Resultados: Se entrevistaron 125 pacientes, 61 del hospital 1 y 64 del Hospital 2; 87%, fueron mujeres. Hubieron 73,6% malos dormidores, 68% tuvieron depresión, 22,4% ansiedad, 24,8% dolor corporal difuso moderado-severo y 30,4% ideación suicida, 27,9% y 32,8% en el primer y segundo hospital, respectivamente. En los pacientes con Ideación suicida la frecuencia fue: mala calidad del sueño 81,6% (p=0,1), depresión 71%(p=0,5), ansiedad 42% (0,001) y dolor corporal difuso (DCD) de moderado a severo 26,3% (p=0,005). En el multivariado, ansiedad, rp= 1,4 IC95%= 1,14-1,7, p= 0,006 y ser mal dormidor, rp= 1,2, IC95%= 1,0-1,4, p=0,01 se asociaron a Ideación suicida. Conclusiones: la frecuencia de ideación suicida es elevada en estos pacientes. El factor más frecuente fue mala calidad de sueño. Ansiedad y ser mal dormidor se asociaron a ideación suicida.Tesi

Impacts of Climate Change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture

Objective: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources: In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change ; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture ; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems ; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis: We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment ; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems ; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions: Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes

Near-field scattering by dielectric spheroidal particles with sizes on the order of the illuminating wavelength

We present a theoretical study of electric field scattering by wavelength-sized spheroids. The incident, internal, and scattered fields are computed analytically by a spheroidal coordinate separation-of-variables solution, assuming axially incident monochromatic illumination. The main sources of possible numerical errors are identified and an additional point-matching procedure is implemented to provide a built-in test of the validity of the results. Numerical results were obtained for prolate and oblate particles with particular aspect ratios and sizes, and a refractive index of 1.33 relative to the surrounding medium. Special attention is paid to the characteristics of the near-field in close proximity to the spheroids. It is shown that particles with sizes close to the incident wavelength can produce high field enhancements whose spatial location and extension can be controlled by the particle geometry

Study of a Class of Four Dimensional Nonsingular Cosmological Bounces

We study a novel class of nonsingular time-symmetric cosmological bounces. In this class of four dimensional models the bounce is induced by a perfect fluid with a negative energy density. Metric perturbations are solved in an analytic way all through the bounce. The conditions for generating a scale invariant spectrum of tensor and scalar metric perturbations are discussed.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure