Evaluating State Programmes - “Natural Experiments” and Propensity Scores

Evaluations of programmes — for example, labour market interventions such as employment schemes and training courses — usually involve comparison of the performance of a treatment group (recipients of the programme) with a control group (non-recipients) as regards some response (gaining employment, for example). But the ideal of randomisation of individuals to groups is rarely possible in the social sciences and there may be substantial differences between groups in the distributions of individual characteristics that can affect response. Past practice in economics has been to try to use multiple regression models to adjust away the differences in observed characteristics, while also testing for sample selection bias. The Propensity Score approach, which is widely applied in epidemiology and related fields, focuses on the idea that “matching” individuals in the groups should be compared. The appropriate matching measure is usually taken to be the prior probability of programme participation. This paper describes the key ideas of the Propensity Score method and illustrates its application by reanalysis of some Irish data on training courses.

Cómo realizar una osteotomía tridimensional de la rodilla. Estudio preliminar del cálculo matemático

Introducción: La osteotomía tridimensional de la rodilla es una osteotomía planoblicua que consigue, en un solo gesto quirúrgico, corregir la deformidad en los tres planos del espacio. Objetivo: Se plantea el estudio matemático ya que en la práctica clínica es habitual su realización de manera intuitiva. Material y Método: Se ha tomado, como variables del estudio, la angulación de la osteotomía en los diferentes planos del espacio así como la derrotación realizada. Resultados: Se presenta la fórmula matemática desarrollada a partir del cálculo matricial. Mediante ésta, se puede plantear un sistema de ecuaciones con tres incógnitas y con una solución única, múltiple o sin solución. Discusión: Si se realiza un corte con una ligera inclinación posterior se puede corregir, a la vez, el genu varo y la torsión (situación muy frecuente en la práctica clínica). El hecho de estandarizar y cuantificar este proceso nos permite adaptar el uso de navegadores a esta cirugía.Introduction: Fitted tridimensional osteotomy of the knee allows in one surgical step to correct all three deformities. The aim of the study is to find the mathematical procedure in order to correct the torsional and angular deformity. Material and method: We have used some values like the osteotomy angulation in diferent situations and the derrotation performed. Results: We have used the matritial calculation to find the mathematical formula. We can get an equation system with trhee variables. It can have a simple solution, multiple or no solution. Discusion: If we make the cut with a slight posterior inclination we can correct in one step genu varo and torsion (common clinical situation). It´s important to standarize and quantify this process because of the adaptation the use of navegators in this surgery.Peer Reviewe

Viral load and antibody boosting following herpes zoster diagnosis

BACKGROUND: Acute varicella zoster virus (VZV) replication in shingles is accompanied by VZV antibody boosting. It is unclear whether persisting virus shedding affects antibody levels. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between VZV viral load and antibody titres in shingles patients during six months following diagnosis and assess whether VZV antibody titre could discriminate patients with recent shingles from healthy population controls. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective study of 63 patients with active zoster. Blood samples were collected at baseline, one, three and six months to measure VZV DNA and IgG antibody titre. We compared VZV antibody titres of zoster patients and 441 controls. RESULTS: In acute zoster, viral load was highest at baseline and declined gradually over the following six months. Mean antibody titres rose fourfold, peaking at one month and remaining above baseline levels throughout the study. Antibody levels at one, three and six months after zoster were moderately correlated with baseline but not subsequent viral load. Regarding use of antibody titres to identify recent shingles, to achieve 80% sensitivity, specificity would be 23.4%, 67.7%, 64.8% and 52.6%, at baseline, visit 2, 3 and 4 respectively, whilst to achieve 80% specificity, sensitivity would be 28.3%, 66.1%, 52.6%, 38.6%, at baseline, visit 2, 3 and 4 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical VZV reactivation boosted VZV antibody levels and the level of boosting was dependent upon baseline viral replication. While antibody titres could discriminate patients with shingles 1-6 months earlier from blood donor controls, there was a large trade-off between sensitivity and specificity

Sacrificing their Careers for their Families? An Analysis of the Family Pay Penalty in Europe

This paper examines the extent of and the mechanisms behind the penalty to motherhood in six European countries. Each country provides different levels of support for maternal employment allowing us to determine institutional effects on labour market outcome. While mothers tend to earn less than non-mothers, the penalty to motherhood is considerably lower in countries with policy support for working mothers. The paper establishes the United Kingdom and West Germany to have the least policy support for working mothers as well as the largest penalties to motherhood

Three-dimensionally Ordered Macroporous Structure Enabled Nanothermite Membrane of Mn2O3/Al

Mn2O3 has been selected to realize nanothermite membrane for the first time in the literature. Mn2O3/Al nanothermite has been synthesized by magnetron sputtering a layer of Al film onto three-dimensionally ordered macroporous (3DOM) Mn2O3 skeleton. The energy release is significantly enhanced owing to the unusual 3DOM structure, which ensures Al and Mn2O3 to integrate compactly in nanoscale and greatly increase effective contact area. The morphology and DSC curve of the nanothermite membrane have been investigated at various aluminizing times. At the optimized aluminizing time of 30 min, energy release reaches a maximum of 2.09 kJ∙g−1, where the Al layer thickness plays a decisive role in the total energy release. This method possesses advantages of high compatibility with MEMS and can be applied to other nanothermite systems easily, which will make great contribution to little-known nanothermite research

HAPEX-Sahel : a large-scale study of land-atmosphere interactions in the semi-arid tropics

The Hydrologic Atmospheric Pilot EXperiment in the Sahel (HAPEX-Sahel) was carried out in Niger, West Africa, during 1991 - 1992, with an intensive observation period (IOP) in August - October 1992. It aims at improving the parameterization of land surface atmosphere interactions at the Global Circulation Model (GCM) gridbox scale. The experiment combines remote sensing and ground based measurements with hydrological and meteorological modelling to develop aggregation techniques for use in large scale estimates of the hydrological and meteorological behaviour of large areas in the Sahel. The experimental strategy consisted of a period of intensive measurements during the transition period of the rainy to the dry season, backed up by a series of long term measurements in a 1° by 1° square in Niger. Three "supersites" were instrumented with a variety of hydrological and (micro) meteorological equipment to provide detailed information on the surface energy exchange at the local scale. Boundary layer measurements and aircraft measurements were used to provide information at scales of 100 - 500 km2. All relevant remote sensing images were obtained for this period. This programme of measurements is now being analyzed and an extensive modelling programme is under way to aggregate the information at all scales up to the GCM grid box scale. The experimental strategy and some preliminary results of the IOP are described

Reductions in cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory mortality following the national Irish smoking ban: Interrupted time-series analysis

Copyright @ 2013 Stallings-Smith et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality. Methods: A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence. Results: Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35-64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32-0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305-4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking. Conclusions: The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes

Public service markets: their economics, institutional oversight and regulation

Public services in the UK have been transformed over the past 25 years with the introduction of market oriented solutions into their provision. This has been characterised by a shift away from state provision to independent providers, and by the introduction of competition and choice. This shift was partly ideologically motivated and partly driven by budget cutting considerations following the financial crisis. As such it has been lacking a comprehensive economic justification or method of analysis. It is now commonly accepted that the language of economic markets is essential to frame arguments about how effectively public services are achieving their intended outcomes. Using market language and concepts may not always be comfortable for those from a traditional policy-making background. It can nevertheless be very useful when designing investigations into the effectiveness and value for money in the mechanisms of delivery of such services, whenever these services entail a degree of user choice as is currently the case in large parts of health, social care and education (referred to as competition in the market). Our paper wants to provide a conceptual basis on the way of thinking in these terms. We provide a description of the current state and then comment on the desirability of this quasi market approach. Uniquely in the literature, we analyse the expected and desired developments by distinguishing between choice and compulsory merit goods. In choice merit goods markets many users are unable to choose effectively because of the existence of a number of demand side or supply side market failures. Moreover, conflicts may exist between how service users actually make choices, and policy objectives such as universality or equity which may not be achieved simply by ‘leaving it to the market’. The users of compulsory merit goods are typically a minority and unable to internalise the full social benefits of their actions; hence it may be welfare-enhancing for society to coerce them ‘consume’ these services. As choice cannot be an objective, the commissioning (competition for the market) or direct provision by the state of such goods may meet public policy objectives more effectively than the market mechanism alone. Building on these foundations the paper discusses when public service markets are likely to be an effective method of achieving public policy objectives, and when they may not be. Our paper analyses the implications for the institutional and legal framework, funding oversight and regulation of public service markets as a result of their transformation into quasi-markets. The paper concludes with some suggestions for those charged with overseeing public service markets in practice based on this analysis

Evaporation from Pinus caribaea plantations on former grassland soils under maritime tropical conditions.

Wet canopy and dry canopy evaporation from young and mature plantations of Pinus caribaea on former grassland soils under maritime tropical conditions in southwestern Viti Levu, Fiji, were determined using micrometeorological and hydrological techniques. Modeled annual evaporation totals (ET) of 1926 and 1717 mm were derived for the 6- and the 15-year-old stands, respectively. Transpiration made up 72 and 70 of annual ET, and modeled rainfall interception by the trees and litter layer was 20-22 and 8-9 in the young and the mature stands respectively. Monthly ET was related to forest leaf area index and was much higher than that for the kind of tall fire-climax Pennisetum polystachyon grassland replaced by the forests. Grassland reforestation resulted in a maximum decrease in annual water yield of 1180 mm on a plot basis, although it is argued that a reduction of (at least) 500-700 mm would be more realistic at the catchment scale. The impact of reforesting grassland on the water resources in southwest Viti Levu is enhanced by its location in a maritime, seasonal climate in the outer tropics, which favors a larger difference between annual forest and grassland evaporation totals than do equatorial regions