PolyChord: nested sampling for cosmology

PolyChord is a novel nested sampling algorithm tailored for high dimensional parameter spaces. In addition, it can fully exploit a hierarchy of parameter speeds such as is found in CosmoMC and CAMB. It utilises slice sampling at each iteration to sample within the hard likelihood constraint of nested sampling. It can identify and evolve separate modes of a posterior semi-independently and is parallelised using openMPI. PolyChord is available for download at: http://ccpforge.cse.rl.ac.uk/gf/project/polychord/Comment: Accepted by MNRAS 2015 March 20. Received 2015 March 20; in original form 2015 February 6, 5 pages, 5 figure

Using non-participant observation to uncover mechanisms: insights from a realist evaluation

This article outlines how a realist evaluation of dementia care in hospitals used non-participant observation to support the refinement and testing of mechanisms likely to lead to the use of person-centred care. We found that comments and explanations of their actions from hospital staff during observation periods provided insights into the reasoning that generated their actions for care in real time. This informed subsequent data collection and analysis. Two worked examples of mechanisms first identified during non-participant observation demonstrate (1) how they were uncovered, and (2) how this informed research activities for theory refinement. Early, iterative engagement with the analytic process, primarily involving reflection and debate with the research team, maximised the potential of observation data to support surfacing underlying mechanisms, linking them to specific contexts and outcomes.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Geometry and Topology of Escape I: Epistrophes

We consider a dynamical system given by an area-preserving map on a two-dimensional phase plane and consider a one-dimensional line of initial conditions within this plane. We record the number of iterates it takes a trajectory to escape from a bounded region of the plane as a function along the line of initial conditions, forming an ``escape-time plot''. For a chaotic system, this plot is in general not a smooth function, but rather has many singularities at which the escape time is infinite; these singularities form a complicated fractal set. In this article we prove the existence of regular repeated sequences, called ``epistrophes'', which occur at all levels of resolution within the escape-time plot. (The word ``epistrophe'' comes from rhetoric and means ``a repeated ending following a variable beginning''.) The epistrophes give the escape-time plot a certain self-similarity, called ``epistrophic'' self-similarity, which need not imply either strict or asymptotic self-similarity.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, to appear in Chaos, first of two paper

Enhancing the practical utility of risk assessments in climate change adaptation

In 2012, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moved from a vulnerability to a risk-based conception of climate change adaptation. However, there are few examples of work that translates this approach into climate change adaptation practice, in order to demonstrate the practical utility of following a risk-based approach to adapting to climate change. The paper explores critically the differing conceptions of vulnerability and risk across the literature relating to disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. The paper also examines a selection of spatially focused climate change vulnerability and risk assessment methodologies in this context. In doing so, we identify issues with the availability of spatial data to enable spatial risk-based climate change assessments. We argue that the concept of risk is potentially favorable in helping cities to understand the challenges posed by climate change, identify adaptation options, and build resilience to the changing climate. However, we suggest that change is needed in the way that practitioners and policymakers engage with risk-based concepts if they are to be embed into climate change adaptation activities

Constraining recent lead pollution sources in the North Pacific using ice core stable lead isotopes

Trends and sources of lead (Pb) aerosol pollution in the North Pacific rim of North America from 1850 to 2001 are investigated using a high-resolution (subannual to annual) ice core record recovered from Eclipse Icefield (3017 masl; St. Elias Mountains, Canada). Beginning in the early 1940s, increasing Pb concentration at Eclipse Icefield occurs coevally with anthropogenic Pb deposition in central Greenland, suggesting that North American Pb pollution may have been in part or wholly responsible in both regions. Isotopic ratios (208Pb/207Pb and 206Pb/207Pb) from 1970 to 2001 confirm that a portion of the Pb deposited at Eclipse Icefield is anthropogenic, and that it represents a variable mixture of East Asian (Chinese and Japanese) emissions transported eastward across the Pacific Ocean and a North American component resulting from transient meridional atmospheric flow. Based on comparison with source material Pb isotope ratios, Chinese and North American coal combustion have likely been the primary sources of Eclipse Icefield Pb over the 1970–2001 time period. The Eclipse Icefield Pb isotope composition also implies that the North Pacific mid-troposphere is not directly impacted by transpolar atmospheric flow from Europe. Annually averaged Pb concentrations in the Eclipse Icefield ice core record show no long-term trend during 1970–2001; however, increasing 208Pb/207Pb and decreasing 206Pb/207Pb ratios reflect the progressive East Asian industrialization and increase in Asian pollutant outflow. The post-1970 decrease in North American Pb emissions is likely necessary to explain the Eclipse Icefield Pb concentration time series. When compared with low (lichen) and high (Mt. Logan ice core) elevation Pb data, the Eclipse ice core record suggests a gradual increase in pollutant deposition and stronger trans-Pacific Asian contribution with rising elevation in the mountains of the North Pacific rim