Modeling and forecasting electricity demand in Azerbaijan using cointegration techniques

Policymakers in developing and transitional economies require sound models to: (i) understand the drivers of rapidly growing energy consumption and (ii) produce forecasts of future energy demand. This paper attempts to model electricity demand in Azerbaijan and provide future forecast scenarios—as far as we are aware this is the first such attempt for Azerbaijan using a comprehensive modelling framework. Electricity consumption increased and decreased considerably in Azerbaijan from 1995 to 2013 (the period used for the empirical analysis)—it increased on average by about 4% per annum from 1995 to 2006 but decreased by about 4½% per annum from 2006 to 2010 and increased thereafter. It is therefore vital that Azerbaijani planners and policymakers understand what drives electricity demand and be able to forecast how it will grow in order to plan for future power production. However, modeling electricity demand for such a country has many challenges. Azerbaijan is rich in energy resources, consequently GDP is heavily influenced by oil prices; hence, real non-oil GDP is employed as the activity driver in this research (unlike almost all previous aggregate energy demand studies). Moreover, electricity prices are administered rather than market driven. Therefore, different cointegration and error correction techniques are employed to estimate a number of per capita electricity demand models for Azerbaijan, which are used to produce forecast scenarios for up to 2025. The resulting estimated models (in terms of coefficients, etc.) and forecasts of electricity demand for Azerbaijan in 2025 prove to be very similar; with the Business as Usual forecast ranging from about of 19½ to 21 TWh

Maximal, potential and singular operators in the local "complementary" variable exponent Morrey type spaces

We consider local "complementary" generalized Morrey spaces M-c({x0})p(.).omega (Omega) in which the p-means of function are controlled over Omega \ B(x(0), r) instead of B(x(0), r), where Omega subset of R-n is a bounded open set, p(x) is a variable exponent, and no monotonicity type condition is imposed onto the function omega(r) defining the "complementary" Morrey-type norm. In the case where omega is a power function, we reveal the relation of these spaces to weighted Lebesgue spaces. In the general case we prove the boundedness of the Hardy-Littlewood maximal operator and Calderon-Zygmund singular operators with standard kernel, in such spaces. We also prove a Sobolev type M-c({x0})p(.).omega (Omega) -> M-c({x0})p(.).omega (Omega)-theorem for the potential operators I-alpha(.), also of variable order. In all the cases the conditions for the boundedness are given it terms of Zygmund-type integral inequalities-on omega(r), which do not assume any assumption on monotonicity of omega(r).Science Development Foundation under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan [EIF-2010-1(1)-40/06-1]; Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) [110T695]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

dReDBox: Materializing a full-stack rack-scale system prototype of a next-generation disaggregated datacenter

Current datacenters are based on server machines, whose mainboard and hardware components form the baseline, monolithic building block that the rest of the system software, middleware and application stack are built upon. This leads to the following limitations: (a) resource proportionality of a multi-tray system is bounded by the basic building block (mainboard), (b) resource allocation to processes or virtual machines (VMs) is bounded by the available resources within the boundary of the mainboard, leading to spare resource fragmentation and inefficiencies, and (c) upgrades must be applied to each and every server even when only a specific component needs to be upgraded. The dRedBox project (Disaggregated Recursive Datacentre-in-a-Box) addresses the above limitations, and proposes the next generation, low-power, across form-factor datacenters, departing from the paradigm of the mainboard-as-a-unit and enabling the creation of function-block-as-a-unit. Hardware-level disaggregation and software-defined wiring of resources is supported by a full-fledged Type-1 hypervisor that can execute commodity virtual machines, which communicate over a low-latency and high-throughput software-defined optical network. To evaluate its novel approach, dRedBox will demonstrate application execution in the domains of network functions virtualization, infrastructure analytics, and real-time video surveillance.This work has been supported in part by EU H2020 ICTproject dRedBox, contract #687632.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Simultaneous enhancement of electron overflow reduction and hole injection promotion by tailoring the last quantum barrier in InGaN/GaN light-emitting diodes

Cataloged from PDF version of article.A three-step graded undoped-InGaN layers embedded between the GaN last quantum barrier layer and the p-AlGaN electron blocking layer was proposed and its effect on the performance of InGaN/GaN light-emitting diodes was investigated both experimentally and theoretically. In the proposed structure, the electron leakage is found to be effectively reduced, while the hole injection efficiency is simultaneously increased significantly, hence enabling a greatly enhanced radiative recombination rate within the active region. As a result, improvements of 12.25% in the optical output power and 11.98% in the external quantum efficiency are obtained from the proposed device with the respect to the reference device. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC

A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

This Open Access Brief presents the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). KGEMM is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The model has eight blocks (real sector, fiscal, monetary, external sector, price, labor and wages, energy, population, and age cohorts) that interact with each other to represent the Kingdom’s macroeconomy and energy linkages. It captures New Keynesian demand-side features anchored to medium-run equilibrium and long-run aggregate supply. It applies a cointegration and equilibrium correction modeling (ECM) methodology to time series data to estimate the model’s behavioral equations in the framework of Autometrics, a general-to-specific econometric modeling strategy. Hence, the model combines ‘theory-driven’ approach with ‘data-driven’ approach. The Brief begins with an introduction to the theoretical framework of the model and the KGEMM methodology and then walks the reader through the structure of the model and its behavioral equations. The book closes with simulations showing the application of the model. Providing a detailed introduction to a cutting-edge, robust predictive model, this Brief will be of great use to researchers and policymakers interested in macroeconomics, energy economics, econometrics, and more specifically, the economy of Saudi Arabia

Possibilities of the cellular immunity correction using intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and cytokinotherapy with roncoleukin in perioperative period while indirect revascularization done in patients with critical ischemia of the lower extremiti

Objective. To study up the possibilities of the cellular immunity correction using intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and cytokinotherapy with roncoleukin in perioperative period while indirect revascularization done in patients with critical ischemia of the lower extremities. Materials and methods. Prospective controlled clinic-laboratory investigation was performed in 162 patients, suffering critical ischemia of the lower extremities on background of distal arterial stenosis (occlusion) and to whom indirect revascularization operations were done. Etiology of the lower extremities critical ischemia were the obliterating atherosclerosis - in 108 (66.7%) patients and obliterating thrombangiitis - in 54 (33.3%) patients. In 56 patients a Degree III was diagnosed, and in 106 patients - IV Degree of chronic ischemia. In perioperative period in 34 patients a standard treatment was performed (Group I), in 32 patients - standard treatment and intravenous laser irradiation of the blood (Group II), in 32 patients - standard treatment and cytokinotherapy with roncolekin (Group III), in 33 patients - standard treatment, intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and cytokinotherapy (Group IV), in 31 patients in a revascularized osteotrepanation with intramedullary laser irradiation - standard treatment, intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and cytokinotherapy (Group V). Parameters of cellular immunity (CD3+, CD4+, CD8+lymphocytes; ratio CD4+/CD8+) and of phagocytosis were studied in dynamics. The cellular immunity indices were compared with identical indices in 48 practically healthy persons (a reference group). Results. While admittance to hospital in patients with critical ischemia of the lower extremities in a distal stenosis (occlusion) the abrupt change of cellular immunity was revealed towards the immune insufficiency. Inclusion of intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and of cytokinotherapy, separately or in combination, into the treatment measures complex of perioperative period in indirect revascularization have leaded towards trustworthy (p < 0.05) elimination of the cellular immunity indices. Correction of cellular immunity trustworthily depended on (p < 0.01-0.001) the treatment factor with moderate (r =0.5- 0.6) correlation. Best results were obtained while joint application of intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and cytokinotherapy in perioperative period in indirect revascularizaation, peculiarly while operation of revascularized osteotrepanation with intramedullary laser irradiation. Conclusion. Application of intravenous laser irradiation of the blood and cytokinotherapy together with standard treatment in perioperative period while doing indirect revascularization corrects the cellular immunity trustworthily in patients, suffering critical arterial ischemia of the lower extremities, and the dynamics of these indices may be used as an objective criterion of the efficacy estimation for the therapy conducted

A phase II study of glembatumumab vedotin for metastatic uveal melanoma

Glembatumumab vedotin (CDX-011, GV) is a fully human Immunoglobulin G2 monoclonal antibody directed against glycoprotein NMB coupled via a peptide linker to monomethyl auristatin E (MMAE), a potent cytotoxic microtubule inhibitor. This phase II study evaluated the overall response rate and safety of GV, glycoprotein NMB (GPNMB) expression, and survival in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. Eligible patients with metastatic uveal melanoma who had not previously been treated with chemotherapy received GV 1.9 mg/kg every three weeks. The primary endpoint was the objective response rate (ORR). Secondary endpoints included GPNMB expression, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and toxicity analysis. GPNMB expression was assessed pre- and post-treatment via immunohistochemistry for patients with available tumor tissue. Out of 35 patients who received treatment, two patients had confirmed partial responses (PRs; 6%), and 18 patients had a stable disease (SD; 51%) as the best objective response. 38% of the patients had stable disease \u3e100 days. The grade 3 or 4 toxicities that occurred in two or more patients were neutropenia, rash, hyponatremia, and vomiting. The median progression-free survival was 3.1 months (95% CI: 1.5-5.6), and the median overall survival was 11.9 months (95% CI 9.0-16.9) in the evaluable study population. GV is well-tolerated in metastatic uveal melanoma. The disease control rate was 57% despite a low objective response rate. Exploratory immune correlation studies are underway to provide insight into target saturation, combination strategies, and antigen release