Introduction: Forecasting in peace research

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection

Networked international politics

Network theory and methods are becoming increasingly used to study the causes and consequences of conflict. Network analysis allows researchers to develop a better understanding of the causal dynamics and structural geometry of the complex web of interdependencies at work in the onset, incidence, and diffusion of conflict and peace. This issue features new theoretical and empirical research demonstrating how properly accounting for networked interdependencies has profound implications for our understanding of the processes thought to be responsible for the conflict behavior of state and non-state actors. The contributors examine the variation in networks of states and transnational actors to explain outcomes related to international conflict and peace. They highlight how networked interdependencies affect conflict and cooperation in a broad range of areas at the center of international relations scholarship. It is helpful to distinguish between three uses of networks, namely: (1) as theoretical tools, (2) as measurement tools, and (3) as inferential tools. The introduction discusses each of these uses and shows how the contributions rely on one or several of them. Next, Monte Carlo simulations are used to illustrate one of the strengths of network analysis, namely that it helps researchers avoid biased inferences when the data generating process underlying the observed data contains extradyadic interdependencies. </jats:p

Ethnic coalitions and the logic of political survival in authoritarian regimes

Why do authoritarian governments exclude ethnic groups if this jeopardizes their regime survival? We generalize existing arguments that attribute exclusion dynamics to ethnic coalition formation. We argue that a mutual commitment problem, between the ethnic ruling group and potential coalition members, leads to power-balanced ethnic coalitions. However, authoritarian regimes with institutions that mitigate credible commitment problems facilitate the formation of coalitions that are less balanced in power. We test our arguments with a k-adic conditional logit approach, using data on ethnic groups and their power status. We demonstrate that in autocracies, the ruling ethnic group is more likely to form and maintain coalitions that balance population sizes among all coalition members. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the extent to which balancing occurs is conditional on authoritarian regime type

Endogenous networks and international cooperation

The rise of social network analyses in the social sciences has allowed empirical work to better account for interdependencies among actors and among their actions. However, this work has been, to a large extent, descriptive: it has treated these actions as exogenous and immutable. In many cases these networks describe actions like alliance formation or trade phenomena that are the outcome variables for programs of social scientific research. In this paper, I attempt to account for both interdependencies and the endogenous nature of networks by incorporating formal theory; helping answer the question of how these networks arise by looking at the incentives of actors to form links with each other. I discuss the appropriate solution concept for a network formation game, and present an algorithm for finding the equilibrium of these networks computationally as well as ways to compare the theoretical networks to observed ones in order to evaluate the fit of the theory. I apply these methods to the study of international cooperation a subject where both the interdependencies and purposive nature of actors must be accounted for. The theoretical network is able to reproduce a number of important observed characteristics. Still, there are more factors that must be accounted for if we want to understand how the network of international cooperation is formed

Recent advances in organic synthesis using light-mediated n-heterocyclic carbene catalysis

The combination of photocatalysis with other ground state catalytic systems have attracted much attention recently due to the enormous synthetic potential offered by a dual activation mode. The use of N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC) as organocatalysts emerged as an important synthetic tool. Its ability to harness umpolung reactivity by the formation of the Breslow intermediate has been employed in the synthesis of thousands of biologically important compounds. However, the available coupling partners are relatively restricted, and its combination with other catalytic systems might improve its synthetic versatility. Thus, merging photoredox and N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC) catalysis has emerged recently as a powerful strategy to develop new transformations and give access to a whole new branch of synthetic possibilities. This review compiles the NHC catalyzed methods mediated by light, either in the presence or absence of an external photocatalyst, that have been described so far, and aims to give an accurate overview of the potential of this activation modeL.M. acknowledges the Autonomous Community of Madrid (CAM) for the financial support (PEJD-2019-PRE/AMB-16640 and SI1/PJI/ 2019-00237) and for an “Atracción de Talento Investigador” contract (2017-T2/AMB-5037

Coherent x ray magnetic imaging with 5 nm resolution

Soft x ray microscopy plays an important role in modern spintronics. However, the achievable resolution of most x ray magnetic imaging experiments limits access to fundamental and technologically relevant length scales in the sub 10 amp; x00A0;nm regime. Here, we demonstrate x ray magnetic microscopy with 5 amp; x00A0;nm resolution by combining holography assisted coherent diffractive imaging with heterodyne amplification of the weak magnetic signal. The gain in resolution and contrast makes magnetic pinning sites visible and allows to measure the local width of domain walls. The ability to detect and map such properties with photons opens new horizons for element specific, time resolved, and operando research on magnetic materials and beyon

Application concepts for ultrafast laser induced skyrmion creation and annihilation

Magnetic skyrmions can be created and annihilated in ferromagnetic multilayers using single femtosecond infrared laser pulses above a material dependent fluence threshold. From the perspective of applications, optical control of skyrmions offers a route to a faster and, potentially, more energy efficient new class of information technology devices. Here, we investigate laser induced skyrmion generation in two different materials, mapping out the dependence of the process on the applied field and the laser fluence. We observe that sample properties like strength of the Dzyaloshinskii Moriya interaction and pinning do not considerably influence the initial step of optical creation. In contrast, the number of skyrmions created can be directly and robustly controlled via the applied field and the laser fluence. Based on our findings, we propose concepts for applications, such as all optical writing and deletion, an ultrafast skyrmion reshuffling device for probabilistic computing, and a combined optical and spin orbit torque controlled racetrac

Numerical simulations of laser-driven experiments of ion acceleration in stochastic magnetic fields

We present numerical simulations used to interpret laser-driven plasma experiments at the GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research. The mechanisms by which non-thermal particles are accelerated in astrophysical environments, e.g., the solar wind, supernova remnants, and gamma ray bursts, is a topic of intense study. When shocks are present, the primary acceleration mechanism is believed to be first-order Fermi, which accelerates particles as they cross a shock. Second-order Fermi acceleration can also contribute, utilizing magnetic mirrors for particle energization. Despite this mechanism being less efficient, the ubiquity of magnetized turbulence in the universe necessitates its consideration. Another acceleration mechanism is the lower-hybrid drift instability, arising from gradients of both density and magnetic field, which produce lower-hybrid waves with an electric field that energizes particles as they cross these waves. With the combination of high-powered laser systems and particle accelerators, it is possible to study the mechanisms behind cosmic-ray acceleration in the laboratory. In this work, we combine experimental results and high-fidelity three-dimensional simulations to estimate the efficiency of ion acceleration in a weakly magnetized interaction region. We validate the FLASH magneto-hydrodynamic code with experimental results and use OSIRIS particle-in-cell code to verify the initial formation of the interaction region, showing good agreement between codes and experimental results. We find that the plasma conditions in the experiment are conducive to the lower-hybrid drift instability, yielding an increase in energy ΔE of ∼ 264 keV for 242 MeV calcium ions

Advanced flavin catalysts elaborated with polymers

A variety of biological redox reactions are mediated by flavoenzymes due to the unique redox activity of isoalloxazine ring systems, which are found in flavin cofactors. In the field of synthetic organic chemistry, the term “flavin” is generally used for not only isoalloxazines but also related molecules including their isomers and some analogues, and those having catalytic activity are called flavin catalyst. Flavin catalysts are typically metal-free, and their catalytic activity can be readily accessed using mild terminal oxidants such as H2O2 and O2; therefore, redox reactions with these compounds have great promise as alternatives to reactions with conventional metal catalysts for the sustainable production of important chemicals. We recently became interested in using polymers for the development of flavin catalysts, especially to improve their practicality and advance the field of catalysis. Here, we summarize our recent research on such flavin-polymer collaborations including the development of facile preparation methods for flavin catalysts using polymers, readily reusable polymer-supported flavin catalysts, and flavin-peptide-polymer hybrids that can catalyze the first flavoenzyme-mimetic aerobic oxygenation reactions