Predicting power ramps from joint distributions of future wind speeds

Power ramps are sudden changes in turbine power and must be accurately predicted to minimize costly imbalances in the electrical grid. Doing so requires reliable wind speed forecasts, which can be obtained from ensembles of physical numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through statistical postprocessing. Since the probability of a ramp event depends jointly on the wind speed distributions forecasted at multiple future times, these postprocessing methods must not only correct each individual forecast but also estimate the temporal dependencies among them. Typically though, crucial dependencies are adopted directly from the raw ensemble, and the postprocessed forecast is limited to the tens of members computationally feasible for an NWP model. We extend statistical postprocessing to include temporal dependencies using novel multivariate Gaussian regression models that forecast 24-dimensional distributions of next-day hourly wind speeds at three offshore wind farms. The continuous joint distribution forecast is postprocessed from an NWP ensemble using flexible generalized additive models for the components of its mean vector μ and for parameters defining the forecast error covariance matrix Σ. Modeling these parameters on predictors which characterize the empirical joint distribution of the NWP ensemble allows forecasts for each hour and their temporal dependencies to be adjusted in one step. Wind speed ensembles of any size can be simulated from the postprocessed joint distribution and transformed into power for computing high-resolution ramp predictions that outperform state-of-the-art reference methods.</p

Preference for facial averageness: evidence for a common mechanism in human and macaque infants

Human adults and infants show a preference for average faces, which could stem from a general processing mechanism and may be shared among primates. However, little is known about preference for facial averageness in monkeys. We used a comparative developmental approach and eye-tracking methodology to assess visual attention in human and macaque infants to faces naturally varying in their distance from a prototypical face. In Experiment 1, we examined the preference for faces relatively close to or far from the prototype in 12-month-old human infants with human adult female faces. Infants preferred faces closer to the average than faces farther from it. In Experiment 2, we measured the looking time of 3-month-old rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) viewing macaque faces varying in their distance from the prototype. Like human infants, macaque infants looked longer to faces closer to the average. In Experiments 3 and 4, both species were presented with unfamiliar categories of faces (i.e., macaque infants tested with adult macaque faces; human infants and adults tested with infant macaque faces) and showed no prototype preferences, suggesting that the prototypicality effect is experience-dependent. Overall, the findings suggest a common processing mechanism across species, leading to averageness preferences in primates

Flow resistance in natural, turbulent channel flows: The need for a fluvial fluid mechanics

In fluvial environments, feedbacks among flow, bed forms, sediment, and macrophytes result in a complex fluid dynamics. The assumptions underpinning standard tools in hydraulics are commonly violated and alternative approaches must be formulated. I argue that we should question the assumption that classical notions in fluid mechanics provide the foundations for the techniques of the future. Recent work on turbulent dissipation, interscale modulation of the dynamics, intermittency, and the role of complex forcings is discussed. An agenda for future work is proposed that involves improving our characterization of complex forcings and developing better understanding of the behavior of the velocity gradient tensor in complex, fluvial environments. This leads to the formulation of modeling tools relevant to fluvial fluid mechanics, rather than a reliance on methods developed elsewhere. One avenue by which such methods might be developed is suggested based on the stretched spiral vortex as a baseline topology. This would result in a nonequilibrium model for turbulence that has greater potential to capture the dynamics in which we are interested. Although these ideas are raised in the context of a future fluvial fluid mechanics, they are applicable to any situation where turbulent flows are forced in complicated ways