Chapter 1 - Introductory chapter

Working Group III (WGIII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with assessing scientific research related to the mitigation of climate change. 'Mitigation' is the effort to control the human sources of climate change and their cumulative impacts, notably the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other pollutants, such as black carbon particles, that also affect the planet's energy balance. Mitigation also includes efforts to enhance the processes that remove GHGs from the atmosphere, known as sinks. Because mitigation lowers the anticipated effects of climate change as well as the risks of extreme impacts, it is part of a broader policy strategy that includes adaptation to climate impacts - a topic addressed in more detail in WGII. There is a special role for international cooperation on mitigation policies because most GHGs have long atmospheric lifetimes and mix throughout the global atmosphere. The effects of mitigation policies on economic growth, innovation, and spread of technologies and other important social goals also implicate international concern because nations are increasingly inter-linked through global trade and economic competition. The economic effects of action by one nation depend, in part, on the action of others as well. Yet, while climate change is fundamentally a global issue, the institutions needed for mitigation exist at many different domains of government, including the local and national level. This chapter introduces the major issues that arise in mitigation policy and also frames the rest of the WGIII Contribution to the AR5. First we focus on the main messages since the publication of AR4 in 2007. Then we look at the historical and future trends in emissions and driving forces, noting that the scale of the mitigation challenge has grown enormously since 2007 due to rapid growth of the world economy and the continued lack of much overt effort to control emissions. This trend raises questions about the viability of widely discussed goals such as limiting climate warming to 2 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial period. Then we look at the conceptual issues - such as sustainable development, green growth, and risk management - that frame the mitigation challenge and how those concepts are used in practice. Finally, we offer a roadmap for the rest of the volume

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies

Technologies, Policies, and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change

This Technical Paper provides an overview and analysis of technologies and measures to limit and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to enhance GHG sinks under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The paper focuses on technologies and measures for the countries listed in Annex I of the FCCC, while noting information as appropriate for use by non- Annex I countries. Technologies and measures are examined over three time periods -- with a focus on the short term (present to 2010) and the medium term (2010-2020), but also including discussion of longer-term (e.g., 2050) possibilities and opportunities. For this analysis, the authors draw on materials used to prepare the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) and previous IPCC assessments and reports. The Technical Paper includes discussions of technologies and measures that can be adopted in three energy end-use sectors (commercial/residential/institutional buildings, transportation, and industry), as well as in the energy supply sector and the agriculture, forestry, and waste management sectors. Broader measures affecting national economies are discussed in a final section on economic instruments. A range of potential measures are analyzed, including market-based programs; voluntary agreements; regulatory measures; research, development, and demonstration (RD&D); taxes on GHG emissions; and emissions permits/quotas. It should be noted that the choice of instruments could have economic impacts on other countries. The paper identifies and evaluates different options on the basis of three criteria. Because of the difficulty of estimating the economic and market potential (see Box 1) of different technologies and the effectiveness of different measures in achieving emission reduction objectives, and because of the danger of double-counting the results achieved by measures that tap the same technical potentials, the paper does not estimate total global emissions reductions. Nor does the paper recommend adoption of any particular approaches

Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure

Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use post-processing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO2-limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical – at a continental level – to unlock economic, low-carbon investment

Multiprocessor raster plotting

A scalable multiprocessor raster image processor that generates printed circuit plots in alternating band buffers is described. Synchronous raster plotting systems and the development of mask creation for producing printed circuits are reviewed. The general architecture of the multiprocessing system that rasterizes printed circuit plot descriptions, and its graphics, load prediction, and facet size computation operations are discussed. Performance analysis results of two versions of the multiprocessor architecture, one with four rasterization transputers and the other with eight, are presente

Zinc supplementation for preventing mortality, morbidity, and growth failure in children aged 6 months to 12 years

Background: Zinc deficiency is prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, and is considered a significant risk factor for morbidity, mortality, and linear growth failure. The effectiveness of preventive zinc supplementation in reducing prevalence of zinc deficiency needs to be assessed. Objectives: To assess the effects of zinc supplementation for preventing mortality and morbidity, and for promoting growth, in children aged 6 months to 12 years. Search methods: A previous version of this review was published in 2014. In this update, we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, five other databases, and one trials register up to February 2022, together with reference checking and contact with study authors to identify additional studies. Selection criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of preventive zinc supplementation in children aged 6 months to 12 years compared with no intervention, a placebo, or a waiting list control. We excluded hospitalized children and children with chronic diseases or conditions. We excluded food fortification or intake, sprinkles, and therapeutic interventions. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. We contacted study authors for missing information and used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence. The primary outcomes of this review were all-cause mortality; and cause-specific mortality, due to all-cause diarrhea, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI, including pneumonia), and malaria. We also collected information on a number of secondary outcomes, such as those related to diarrhea and LRTI morbidity, growth outcomes and serum levels of micronutrients, and adverse events. Main results: We included 16 new studies in this review, resulting in a total of 96 RCTs with 219,584 eligible participants. The included studies were conducted in 34 countries; 87 of them in low- or middle-income countries. Most of the children included in this review were under five years of age. The intervention was delivered most commonly in the form of syrup as zinc sulfate, and the most common dose was between 10 mg and 15 mg daily. The median duration of follow-up was 26 weeks. We did not consider that the evidence for the key analyses of morbidity and mortality outcomes was affected by risk of bias. High-certainty evidence showed little to no difference in all-cause mortality with preventive zinc supplementation compared to no zinc (risk ratio (RR) 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84 to 1.03; 16 studies, 17 comparisons, 143,474 participants). Moderate-certainty evidence showed that preventive zinc supplementation compared to no zinc likely results in little to no difference in mortality due to all-cause diarrhea (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.31; 4 studies, 132,321 participants); but probably reduces mortality due to LRTI (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.15; 3 studies, 132,063 participants) and mortality due to malaria (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.06; 2 studies, 42,818 participants); however, the confidence intervals around the summary estimates for these outcomes were wide, and we could not rule out a possibility of increased risk of mortality. Preventive zinc supplementation likely reduces the incidence of all-cause diarrhea (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.93; 39 studies, 19,468 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) but results in little to no difference in morbidity due to LRTI (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.08; 19 studies, 10,555 participants; high-certainty evidence) compared to no zinc. There was moderate-certainty evidence that preventive zinc supplementation likely leads to a slight increase in height (standardized mean difference (SMD) 0.12, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.14; 74 studies, 20,720 participants). Zinc supplementation was associated with an increase in the number of participants with at least one vomiting episode (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.46; 5 studies, 35,192 participants; high-certainty evidence). We report a number of other outcomes, including the effect of zinc supplementation on weight and serum markers such as zinc, hemoglobin, iron, copper, etc. We also performed a number of subgroup analyses and there was a consistent finding for a number of outcomes that co-supplementation of zinc with iron decreased the beneficial effect of zinc. Authors' conclusions: Even though we included 16 new studies in this update, the overall conclusions of the review remain unchanged. Zinc supplementation might help prevent episodes of diarrhea and improve growth slightly, particularly in children aged 6 months to 12 years of age. The benefits of preventive zinc supplementation may outweigh the harms in regions where the risk of zinc deficiency is relatively high