When Bad News Arrives: Project HOPE in a Post-Factual World

On the basis of limited empirical evidence, advocates of Project HOPE (Hawaii’s Opportunity Probation with Enforcement) have succeeded in spreading the model to a reported 31 states and 160 locations. A recent randomized control experiment across four sites has revealed negative results: no overall effect on recidivism. In this context, we examine how prominent advocates of Project HOPE have coped with the arrival of this “bad news.” Despite null findings from a “gold standard” evaluation study, advocates continue to express confidence in the HOPE model and to support its further implementation. The risk thus exists that Project HOPE is entering a post-factual world in which diminishing its appeal—let alone its falsification—is not possible. It is the collective responsibility of corrections researchers to warn policy makers that the HOPE model is not a proven intervention and may not be effective in many agencies. It is also our responsibility to create a science of community supervision that can establish more definitively best practices in this area

A New Wave of Mass Shootings? Exploring the Potential Impact of COVID-19

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has brought much of U.S. society to a grinding halt, its impact on the occurrence of mass shootings is largely unknown. Using data from the Gun Violence Archive and an interrupted time-series design, we analyzed weekly counts of mass shootings in the U.S. from 2019 through 2021. Results show that total, private, and public mass shootings increased following the declaration of COVID-19 as a national emergency in March of 2020. We consider these findings in the context of their broader implications for prevention efforts as well as how they pave the way for future research. </jats:p

Impact of Incarceration on Families and Communities

This essay describes the implications of confinement for offenders’ families (both children and spouses) and for their communities, including coercive mobility, weakened social controls, family disruption, and stigmatization. The pros and cons of removing criminal fathers are discussed, focusing on possible differences in the implications of removing criminal fathers versus criminal mothers. The dramatically higher incarceration rates of black men from the most disadvantaged urban neighborhoods relative to any other demographic subgroup is discussed in the context of possible implications for the social and economic environments of poor neighborhoods. An overview of the debate on whether these higher incarceration rates actually reduce crime is also offered, including possible implications for a deterrent effect on crime (or a lack thereof). The need for research on the collateral consequences of incarceration for Latino families and communities is highlighted, given that Latinos represent the fastest growing segment of the US correctional population.</p