Partisan impacts on the economy: evidence from prediction markets and close elections

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on election day 2004, and then during the vote count we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices, and a stronger dollar under a George W. Bush presidency than under John Kerry. A similar Republican–Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush–Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican president raises equity valuations by 2–3 percent, and that since Ronald Reagan, Republican presidents have tended to raise bond yields

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry

MASSART-PIÉRARD, Françoise. La langue : Vecteur d'organisation internationale. Louvain-la-Neuve, Éditions d'Acadie, 1995, 194 v.

Gait and balance training is an essential ingredient for locomotor rehabilitation of patients with neurological impairments. Robotic overhead support systems may help these patients train, for example by relieving them of part of their body weight. However, there are only very few systems that provide support during overground gait, and these suffer from limited degrees of freedom and/or undesired interaction forces due to uncompensated robot dynamics, namely inertia. Here, we suggest a novel mechanical concept that is based on cable robot technology and that allows three-dimensional gait training while reducing apparent robot dynamics to a minimum. The solution does not suffer from the conventional drawback of cable robots, which is a limited workspace. Instead, displaceable deflection units follow the human subject above a large walking area. These deflection units are not actuated, instead they are implicitly displaced by means of the forces in the cables they deflect. This leads to an underactuated design, because the deflection units cannot be moved arbitrarily. However, the design still allows accurate control of a three-dimensional force vector acting on a human subject during gait. We describe the mechanical concept, the control concept, and we show first experimental results obtained with the device, including the force control performance during robot-supported overground gait of five human subjects without motor impairments

Corruption in Developing Countries

Recent years have seen a remarkable expansion in economists' ability to measure corruption. This in turn has led to a new generation of well-identified, microeconomic studies. We review the evidence on corruption in developing countries in light of these recent advances, focusing on three questions: how much corruption is there, what are the efficiency consequences of corruption, and what determines the level of corruption? We find robust evidence that corruption responds to standard economic incentive theory but also that the effects of anticorruption policies often attenuate as officials find alternate strategies to pursue rents.Hewlett-Packard CompanyGreat Britain. Dept. for International DevelopmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (Governance Initiative

The decay rate of orthopositronium

We review recent measurements of the orthopositronium decay rate, λT, and present results of a new 230‐ppm measurement using the vacuum technique. It corroborates, at the 6.2 sigma level, the discrepancy between theory and a recent 200‐ppm measurement of λT in gases.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87568/2/481_1.pd

A viable superluminal hypothesis: Tachyon emission from orthopositronium

Tachyons are hypothetical particles that travel faster than the vacuum speed of light. Previous experiments have searched for, but have not found evidence of tachyons. Long-standing, anomalous measurements of the orthopositronium (o-Ps) decay rate are interpreted as evidence for two tachyons being occasionally emitted when o-Ps decays. Restricting the coupling of tachyon pairs to a single photon (no tachyon coupling to matter) yields a new theory where tachyons are only observed in o-Ps decay and not in the previous tachyon experiments. Combining the single photon coupling theory with all previous experiments predicts that these tachyons must deposit energy while traversing scintillator detectors. A new tachyon search experiment will use this energy loss prediction to attempt to find tachyons passing through the apparatus or set limits disproving the original o-Ps to tachyon hypothesis. Viewing an intense o-Ps source, a time-of-flight spectrometer uses the superluminal property of tachyons for identification. Several months of continuous data acquisition will be necessary to completely eliminate the o-Ps to tachyon hypothesis. © 2000 American Institute of Physics.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87640/2/1119_1.pd

Beta decay and the origin of biological chirality: New experimental results

The proposed connection between the parity-violating handedness of beta particles in radioactive decay and the sign (L) of biological chirality (the Vester-Ulbricht [V-U] hypothesis) is being investigated by measuring the theoretically predicted asymmetry in the formation of triplet positronium in amino acid enantiomers by low energy positrons under reversal of the helicity of the positrons. We find the asymmetry in leucine to be (0.8±1.0)×10 −4 , i.e. consistent with the theoretical, prediction of 10 −6 to 10 −7 . The apparatus is now sensitive enough to test the predicted asymmetry in optically active molecules which have heavy atoms at their chiral centers. The connection between these results and asymmetry in radiolysis by beta-decay electrons is made, and the implications of our limits for the V-U hypothesis discussed. Although the above limits are 10 6 times lower than direct measurements of radiolysis, they are still not small enough to allow us to rule out the V-U hypothesis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43347/1/11084_2004_Article_BF00933685.pd

The USDA Barley Core Collection:Genetic Diversity, Population Structure, and Potential for Genome-Wide Association Studies

New sources of genetic diversity must be incorporated into plant breeding programs if they are to continue increasing grain yield and quality, and tolerance to abiotic and biotic stresses. Germplasm collections provide a source of genetic and phenotypic diversity, but characterization of these resources is required to increase their utility for breeding programs. We used a barley SNP iSelect platform with 7,842 SNPs to genotype 2,417 barley accessions sampled from the USDA National Small Grains Collection of 33,176 accessions. Most of the accessions in this core collection are categorized as landraces or cultivars/breeding lines and were obtained from more than 100 countries. Both STRUCTURE and principal component analysis identified five major subpopulations within the core collection, mainly differentiated by geographical origin and spike row number (an inflorescence architecture trait). Different patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) were found across the barley genome and many regions of high LD contained traits involved in domestication and breeding selection. The genotype data were used to define 'mini-core' sets of accessions capturing the majority of the allelic diversity present in the core collection. These 'mini-core' sets can be used for evaluating traits that are difficult or expensive to score. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 'hull cover', 'spike row number', and 'heading date' demonstrate the utility of the core collection for locating genetic factors determining important phenotypes. The GWAS results were referenced to a new barley consensus map containing 5,665 SNPs. Our results demonstrate that GWAS and high-density SNP genotyping are effective tools for plant breeders interested in accessing genetic diversity in large germplasm collections

Contrasting genetic regulation of plant development in wild barley grown in two European environments revealed by nested association mapping

Barley is cultivated more widely than the other major world crops because it adapts well to environmental constraints, such as drought, heat, and day length. To better understand the genetic control of local adaptation in barley, we studied development in the nested association mapping population HEB-25, derived from crossing 25 wild barley accessions with the cultivar 'Barke'. HEB-25 was cultivated in replicated field trials in Dundee (Scotland) and Halle (Germany), differing in regard to day length, precipitation, and temperature. Applying a genome-wide association study, we located 60 and 66 quantitative trait locus (QTL) regions regulating eight plant development traits in Dundee and Halle, respectively. A number of QTLs could be explained by known major genes such as PHOTOPERIOD 1 (Ppd-H1) and FLOWERING LOCUS T (HvFT-1) that regulate plant development. In addition, we observed that developmental traits in HEB-25 were partly controlled via genotype × environment and genotype × donor interactions, defined as location-specific and family-specific QTL effects. Our findings indicate that QTL alleles are available in the wild barley gene pool that show contrasting effects on plant development, which may be deployed to improve adaptation of cultivated barley to future environmental changes.</p

A tunable zinc finger-based framework for Boolean logic computation in mammalian cells

The ability to perform molecular-level computation in mammalian cells has the potential to enable a new wave of sophisticated cell-based therapies and diagnostics. To this end, we developed a Boolean logic framework utilizing artificial Cys2–His2 zinc finger transcription factors (ZF-TFs) as computing elements. Artificial ZFs can be designed to specifically bind different DNA sequences and thus comprise a diverse set of components ideal for the construction of scalable networks. We generate ZF-TF activators and repressors and demonstrate a novel, general method to tune ZF-TF response by fusing ZF-TFs to leucine zipper homodimerization domains. We describe 15 transcriptional activators that display 2- to 463-fold induction and 15 transcriptional repressors that show 1.3- to 16-fold repression. Using these ZF-TFs, we compute OR, NOR, AND and NAND logic, employing hybrid promoters and split intein-mediated protein splicing to integrate signals. The split intein strategy is able to fully reconstitute the ZF-TFs, maintaining them as a uniform set of computing elements. Together, these components comprise a robust platform for building mammalian synthetic gene circuits capable of precisely modulating cellular behavior