Understanding the U.S. Export Boom

U.S. exports grew at a rate of 8.2% per year from 1987-1994, far faster than the economy as a whole or even the manufacturing sector. This paper examines the source of this export boom and argues that the boom itself has been less remarkable for the rate of growth of exports than for the striking increase in export intensity. This increase in export intensity has occurred both in the aggregate and for individual plants across a wide range of industries. Competing explanations for the rise in exports are tested with a comprehensive plant level data set. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income are the dominant sources for the export increase, while productivity increases in U.S. plants play a relatively small role. The results suggest that slower growth rates of U.S. trading partners and an appreciation of the dollar will have strong negative effects on the growth rate of U.S. manufacturing exports.

Who Dies? International Trade, Market Structure, and Industrial Restructuring

This paper examines the role of changing factor endowments in the growth and decline of industries and regions. The implications of an endowment-based Heckscher-Ohlin trade model for plant entry and exit are tested on 20 years of data for the entire US manufacturing sector. The trade model provides predictions for which industries will see growth through the positive net entry of plants. A multi-region version of the same model has predictions for which regions will see high turnover and net entry of plants. In a country such as the U.S. that is augmenting both its physical and human capital, the least capital-intensive, least skill-intensive industries are correctly predicted to have the lowest rate of net entry. In addition, increases in regional capital and skill intensity are associated with higher probabilities of shutdown, especially for plants in industries with low initial capital and skill intensities.

PAH Strength and the Interstellar Radiation Field around the Massive Young Cluster NGC3603

We present spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and ionized gas within the Galactic giant HII region NGC3603. Using the IRS instrument on board the Spitzer Space Telescope, we study in particular the PAH emission features at ~5.7, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, and 11.3um, and the [ArII] 6.99um, [NeII] 12.81um, [ArIII] 8.99um, and [SIV] 10.51um forbidden emission lines. The observations probe both ionized regions and photodissociation regions. Silicate emission is detected close to the central cluster while silicate absorption is seen further away. We find no significant variation of the PAH ionization fraction across the whole region. The emission of very small grains lies closer to the central stellar cluster than emission of PAHs. The PAH/VSG ratio anticorrelates with the hardness of the interstellar radiation field suggesting a destruction mechanism of the molecules within the ionized gas, as shown for low-metallicity galaxies by Madden et al. (2006).Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. Corrected typo

Heavy-Light Semileptonic Decays in Staggered Chiral Perturbation Theory

We calculate the form factors for the semileptonic decays of heavy-light pseudoscalar mesons in partially quenched staggered chiral perturbation theory (\schpt), working to leading order in $1/m_Q$, where $m_Q$ is the heavy quark mass. We take the light meson in the final state to be a pseudoscalar corresponding to the exact chiral symmetry of staggered quarks. The treatment assumes the validity of the standard prescription for representing the staggered ``fourth root trick'' within \schpt by insertions of factors of 1/4 for each sea quark loop. Our calculation is based on an existing partially quenched continuum chiral perturbation theory calculation with degenerate sea quarks by Becirevic, Prelovsek and Zupan, which we generalize to the staggered (and non-degenerate) case. As a by-product, we obtain the continuum partially quenched results with non-degenerate sea quarks. We analyze the effects of non-leading chiral terms, and find a relation among the coefficients governing the analytic valence mass dependence at this order. Our results are useful in analyzing lattice computations of form factors $B\to\pi$ and $D\to K$ when the light quarks are simulated with the staggered action.Comment: 53 pages, 8 figures, v2: Minor correction to the section on finite volume effects, and typos fixed. Version to be published in Phys. Rev.

Multi-Product Firms and Product Switching

This paper examines the frequency, pervasiveness and determinants of product switching among U.S. manufacturing firms. We find that two-thirds of firms alter their mix of five-digit SIC products every five years, that one-third of the increase in real U.S. manufacturing shipments between 1972 and 1997 is due to the net adding and dropping of products by survivors, and that firms are more likely to drop products which are younger and have smaller production volumes relative to other firms producing the same product. The product-switching behavior we observe is consistent with an extended model of industry dynamics emphasizing firm heterogeneity and self-selection into individual product markets. Our findings suggest that product switching contributes towards a reallocation of economic activity within firms towards more productive uses.

Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics

This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous-firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.

Transfer Pricing by U.S.-Based Multinational Firms

This paper examines how prices set by multinational firms vary across arm's-length and related-party customers. Comparing prices within firms, products, destination countries, modes of transport and month, we find that the prices U.S. exporters set for their arm's-length customers are substantially larger than the prices recorded for related-parties. This price wedge is smaller for commodities than for differentiated goods, is increasing in firm size and firm export share, and is greater for goods sent to countries with lower corporate tax rates and higher tariffs. We also find that changes in exchange rates have differential effects on arm's-length and related-party prices; an appreciation of the dollar reduces the difference between the prices.

Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms and Industry Dynamics

This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogeneous-firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods.Plant deaths, survival, exit, exports, employment, tariffs, freight costs, transport costs

Importers, Exporters, and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods

This paper provides an integrated view of globally engaged US firms by exploring a newly developed dataset that links US international trade transactions to longitudinal data on US enterprises. These data permit examination of a number of new dimensions of firm activity, including how many products firms trade, how many countries firms trade with, the characteristics of those countries, the concentration of trade across firms, whether firms transact at arm’s length or with related parties, and whether firms import as well as export. Firms that trade goods play an important role in the United States, employing more than a third of the US workforce. We find that the most globally engaged US firms, i.e. those that both export to and import from related parties, dominate US trade flows and employment at trading firms. We also find that firms that begin trading between 1993 and 2000 experience especially rapid employment growth and are a major force in overall job creation.exporters, importers, multinationals, related-party trade