Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.monetary policy;low interest rates;financial stability;lending standards;credit risk;risk-taking;business cycle;bank organization;duration analysis

The Effect of Exercise Intensity on Postprandial Blood Lipids in Physically-Inactive Men

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A Census of Star-Forming Galaxies in the z~9-10 Universe based on HST+Spitzer Observations Over 19 CLASH clusters: Three Candidate z~9-10 Galaxies and Improved Constraints on the Star Formation Rate Density at z~9

We utilise a two-color Lyman-Break selection criterion to search for z~9-10 galaxies over the first 19 clusters in the CLASH program. A systematic search yields three z~9-10 candidates. While we have already reported the most robust of these candidates, MACS1149-JD, two additional z~9 candidates are also found and have H_{160}-band magnitudes of ~26.2-26.9. A careful assessment of various sources of contamination suggests <~1 contaminants for our z~9-10 selection. To determine the implications of these search results for the LF and SFR density at z~9, we introduce a new differential approach to deriving these quantities in lensing fields. Our procedure is to derive the evolution by comparing the number of z~9-10 galaxy candidates found in CLASH with the number of galaxies in a slightly lower redshift sample (after correcting for the differences in selection volumes), here taken to be z~8. This procedure takes advantage of the fact that the relative volumes available for the z~8 and z~9-10 selections behind lensing clusters are not greatly dependent on the details of the lensing models. We find that the normalization of the UV LF at z~9 is just 0.28_{-0.20}^{+0.39}\times that at z~8, ~1.4_{-0.8}^{+3.0}x lower than extrapolating z~4-8 LF results. While consistent with the evolution in the UV LF seen at z~4-8, these results marginally favor a more rapid evolution at z>8. Compared to similar evolutionary findings from the HUDF, our result is less insensitive to large-scale structure uncertainties, given our many independent sightlines on the high-redshift universe.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, updated to include the much deeper Spitzer/IRAC observations over our three z~9-10 candidate

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy:What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions operating in Spain during the last twenty-two years – generating almost twenty-three million bank loan records in total. Spanish monetary conditions were exogenously determined during the entire sample period. Using a variety of duration models we find that lower short-term interest rates prior to loan origination result in banks granting more risky new loans. Banks also soften their lending standards – they lend more to borrowers with a bad credit history and with high uncertainty. Lower interest rates, by contrast, reduce the credit risk of outstanding loans. Loan credit risk is maximized when both interest rates are very low prior to loan origination and interest rates are very high over the life of the loan. Our results suggest that low interest rates increase bank risk-taking, reduce credit risk in banks in the very short run but worsen it in the medium run. Risk-taking is not equal for all type of banks: Small banks, banks with fewer lending opportunities, banks with less sophisticated depositors, and savings or cooperative banks take on more extra risk than other banks when interest rates are lower. Higher GDP growth reduces credit risk on both new and outstanding loans, in stark contrast to the differential effects of monetary policy.

Towards an online-coupled chemistry-climate model: evaluation of trace gases and aerosols in COSMO-ART

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Appearance and Maturation of T-Cell Subsets During Rat Thymus Ontogeny

In previous papers, we have described the ontogenetical development of thymic stromal-cell components (epithelium, macrophages, dendritic cells) of Wistar rats. Here, we correlate those results with the maturation of rat T-cell precursors along the fetal and postnatal life. First T-cell precursors, which colonize the thymus anlage around days 13-14 of gestation, largely express CD45, CD43, CD53, and Thy 1 cell markers, and in a lesser proportion the OX22 antigen. Rat CD3-CD4-CD8- thymocytes present in the earliest stages of gestation could be subdivided in three major cell subpopulations according to the CD44 and CD25 expression: CD44-/+CD25- → CD44+CD25+ → CD44+CD25- On fetal days 17-18, a certain proportion of CD4-CD8-cells weakly,express the TcRβ chain, in correlation with the appearance of the first immature CD4-CD8+ thymocytes. This cell subpopulation, in progress to the CD4+CD8+ stage, upregulates CD8α before the CD8β chain, expresses the CD53 antigen, and exhibits a high proliferative rate. First mature thymocytes arising from the DP (CD4+CD8+) cells appear on fetal days 20-21. Then, the CD4+:CD8+ cell ratio is ≤1 changing to adult values (2-3) just after birth. Also, the percentage of VβTcR repertoire covered in adult thymus is reached during the postnatal period, being lower during the fetal life. Finally, in correlation with the beginning of thymocyte emigration to the periphery a new wave of T-cell maturation apparently occurs in the perinatal rat thymus

European Red List of Habitats Part 1. Marine habitats

The European Red List of Habitats provides an overview of the risk of collapse (degree of endangerment) of marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats in the European Union (EU28) and adjacent regions (EU28+), based on a consistent set of categories and criteria, and detailed data and expert knowledge from involved countries1. A total of 257 benthic marine habitat types were assessed. In total, 19% (EU28) and 18% (EU28+) of the evaluated habitats were assessed as threatened in categories Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable. An additional 12% were Near Threatened in the EU28 and 11% in the EU28+. These figures are approximately doubled if Data Deficient habitats are excluded. The percentage of threatened habitat types differs across the regional seas. The highest proportion of threatened habitats in the EU28 was found in the Mediterranean Sea (32%), followed by the North-East Atlantic (23%), the Black Sea (13%) and then the Baltic Sea (8%). There was a similar pattern in the EU28+. The most frequently cited pressures and threats were similar across the four regional seas: pollution (eutrophication), biological resource use other than agriculture or forestry (mainly fishing but also aquaculture), natural system modifications (e.g. dredging and sea defence works), urbanisation and climate change. Even for habitats where the assessment outcome was Data Deficient, the Red List assessment process has resulted in the compilation of a substantial body of useful information to support the conservation of marine habitats

Environmentally Tuning Asphalt Pavements Using Phase Change Materials

Environmental conditions are considered an important factor influencing asphalt pavement performance. The addition of modifiers, both to the asphalt binder and the asphalt mixture, has attracted considerable attention in potentially alleviating environmentally induced pavement performance issues. Although many solutions have been developed, and some deployed, many asphalt pavements continue to prematurely fail due to environmental loading. The research reported herein investigates the synthetization and characterization of biobased Phase Change Materials (PCMs) and inclusion of Microencapsulated PCM (μPCM) in asphalt binders and mixtures to help reduce environmental damage to asphalt pavements. In general, PCM substances are formulated to absorb and release thermal energy as the material liquify and solidify, depending on pavement temperature. As a result, PCMs can provide asphalt pavements with thermal energy storage capacities to reduce the impacts of drastic ambient temperature scenarios and minimize the appearance of critical temperatures within the pavement structure. By modifying asphalt pavement materials with PCMs, it may be possible to tune the pavement to the environment