Deterministic processes structure bacterial genetic communities across an urban landscape

Land-use change is predicted to act as a driver of zoonotic disease emergence through human exposure to novel microbial diversity, but evidence for the effects of environmental change on microbial communities in vertebrates is lacking. We sample wild birds at 99 wildlife-livestock-human interfaces across Nairobi, Kenya, and use whole genome sequencing to characterise bacterial genes known to be carried on mobile genetic elements (MGEs) within avian-borne Escherichia coli (n=241). By modelling the diversity of bacterial genes encoding virulence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) against ecological and anthropogenic forms of urban environmental change, we demonstrate that communities of avian-borne bacterial genes are shaped by the assemblage of co-existing avian, livestock and human communities, and the habitat within which they exist. In showing that non-random processes structure bacterial genetic communities in urban wildlife, these findings suggest that it should be possible to forecast the effects of urban land-use change on microbial diversity

Patient-centred measurement in ophthalmology – a paradigm shift

Ophthalmologists and researchers in ophthalmology understand what a rapidly evolving field ophthalmology is, and that to conduct good research it is essential to use the latest and best methods. In outcomes research, one modern initiative has been to conduct holistic measurement of outcomes inclusive of the patient's point of view; patient-centred outcome. This, of course, means including a questionnaire. However, the irony of trying to improve outcomes research by being inclusive of many measures is that the researcher may not be expert in all measures used. Certainly, few people conducting outcomes research in ophthalmology would claim to be questionnaire experts. Most tend to be experts in their ophthalmic subspecialty and probably simply choose a popular questionnaire that appears to fit their needs and think little more about it. Perhaps, unlike our own field, we assume that the field of questionnaire research is relatively stable. This is far from the case. The measurement of patient-centred outcomes with questionnaires is a rapidly evolving field. Indeed, over the last few years a paradigm shift has occurred in patient-centred measurement

Determinants of social participation of visually impaired older adults

PURPOSE: To assess determinants of social participation among visually impaired older adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included visually impaired persons (>/=55 years; n = 173) who were referred to a low-vision rehabilitation center. Determinants (i.e., sociodemographic, physical, social and psychological factors, and personal values) of participation were identified in four domains of participation: (1) domestic life; (2) interpersonal interactions and relationships; (3) major life areas; and (4) community, social, and civic life. Study participants completed telephone interviews. RESULTS: Age, physical fitness, and helplessness were determinants of participation in domestic life. Social network size was associated with participation in major life areas. The personal value attached to participation (i.e., perceived importance) was a determinant of participation in interpersonal interactions and relationships, major life areas, and community, social and civic life. Vision-related characteristics (i.e., self-perceived vision and degree of visual impairment) were not associated with participation. CONCLUSIONS: Across the participation domains, perceived importance is a major determinant of social participation among visually impaired older adults. Physical health along with social and psychological status, also affect participation. Knowing how participation is determined can be used to develop rehabilitation interventions to enhance participation of visually impaired older adults

Cross-cultural validation of the functional vision questionnaire for children and young people (FVQ_CYP) with visual impairment in the Dutch population: challenges and opportunities

BACKGROUND:To assess cross-cultural validity between Dutch and English versions of the FVQ_CYP, a patient-reported outcome measure developed in the United Kingdom (UK) for children and adolescents with (severe) visual impairment or blindness (VI for brevity) to measure functional vision. METHODS:The 36-item FVQ_CYP was translated and adapted into Dutch using standard guidelines. The questionnaire was administered to Dutch children and adolescents aged 7-17 years (N = 253) with impaired vision (no restrictions regarding acuity). Data were compared to existing UK data of children and adolescents aged 10-15 years (N = 91) with VI (acuity LogMar worse than 0.48). As with the original UK FVQ_CYP validation, a rating scale model (RSM) was applied to the Dutch data. RESULTS:Minor adaptations were needed in translation-rounds. Significant differences in item responses were found between the Dutch and UK data. Item response theory assumptions were met, but fit to the RSM was unsatisfactory. Therefore, psychometric properties of the Dutch FVQ_CYP were analysed irrespective of the original model and criteria used. A graded response model led to the removal of 12 items due to missing data, low information, overlapping content and limited relevance to Dutch children. Fit indices for the remaining 24 items were adequate. CONCLUSIONS:Differences in population characteristics, distribution of responses, non-invariance at the model level and small sample sizes challenged the cross-cultural validation process. However, the Dutch adapted FVQ_CYP showed high measurement precision and broad coverage of items measuring children's functional vision. The underlying reasons for differences between countries in instrument performance are discussed with implications for future studies

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030