Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Plant–soil feedback of native and range-expanding plant species is insensitive to temperature

Temperature change affects many aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes. Here we investigate the effect of a 5°C temperature increase on plant–soil feedback. We compare plant species from a temperate climate region with immigrant plants that originate from warmer regions and have recently shifted their range polewards. We tested whether the magnitude of plant–soil feedback is affected by ambient temperature and whether the effect of temperature differs between these groups of plant species. Six European/Eurasian plant species that recently colonized the Netherlands (non-natives), and six related species (natives) from the Netherlands were selected. Plant–soil feedback of these species was determined by comparing performance in conspecific and heterospecific soils. In order to test the effect of temperature on these plant–soil feedback interactions, the experiments were performed at two greenhouse temperatures of 20/15°C and 25/20°C, respectively. Inoculation with unconditioned soil had the same effect on natives and non-natives. However, the effect of conspecific conditioned soil was negative compared to heterospecific soil for natives, but was positive for non-natives. In both cases, plant–soil interactions were not affected by temperature. Therefore, we conclude that the temperature component of climate change does not affect the direction, or strength of plant–soil feedback, neither for native nor for non-native plant species. However, as the non-natives have a more positive soil feedback than natives, climate warming may introduce new plant species in temperate regions that have less soil-borne control of abundance

Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for anxiety and depression in adults with mild intellectual disabilities (ID): a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background: Several studies have showed that people with intellectual disabilities (ID) have suitable skills to undergo cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT). Case studies have reported successful use of cognitive behavioural therapy techniques (with adaptations) in people with ID. Modified cognitive behavioural therapy may be a feasible and effective approach for the treatment of depression, anxiety, and other mood disorders in ID. To date, two studies have reported group-based manaulised cognitive behavioural treatment programs for depression in people with mild ID. However, there is no individual manualised programme for anxiety or depression in people with intellectual disabilities. The aims of the study are to determine the feasibility of conducting a randomised controlled trial for CBT in people with ID. The data will inform the power calculation and other aspects of carrying out a definitive randomised controlled trial.Methods: Thirty participants with mild ID will be allocated randomly to either CBT or treatment as usual (TAU). The CBT group will receive up to 20 hourly individual CBT over a period of 4 months. TAU is the standard treatment which is available to any adult with an intellectual disability who is referred to the intellectual disability service (including care management, community support, medical, nursing or social support). Beck Youth Inventories (Beck Anxiety Inventory & Beck Depression Inventory) will be administered at baseline; end of treatment (4 months) and at six months to evaluate the changes in depression and anxiety. Client satisfaction, quality of life and the health economics will be secondary outcomes.Discussion: The broad outcome of the study will be to produce clear guidance for therapists to apply an established psychological intervention and identify how and whether it works with people with intellectual disabilities

In vitro modulation of inflammatory cytokine and IgG levels by extracts of Perna canaliculus

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is a predominant characteristic of autoimmune diseases which is characterized by the increased expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Soon to be published work from our laboratory has shown that ingestion of Perna canaliculus prevents the development of autoimmune diseases such as Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis in laboratory animals. The current paper attempts to illustrate how Perna can alleviate inflammation by modulating inflammatory cytokines, cyclooxygenase enzymes and Immunoglobulin-G (IgG) levels. METHODS: In the present study, hydrochloric acid [HCl] and Tween-20 were used to develop extracts of Perna. These extracts were assayed for protein content. Increasing concentrations of these extracts were then tested in cell culture for modulation of inflammatory cytokine, cyclooxygenase enzymes and IgG levels. Parallel tests were run using an available glycogen extract of Perna as a comparison to our in-house laboratory preparations. RESULTS: Tween-20 Perna extracts were found to be more stable and less toxic in cell culture than HCl digest of Perna. They also assayed higher in protein content that HCl extracts. Although both extracts inhibited IgG production in V2E9 hybridomas, Tween-20 extracts were more consistent in IgG suppression than HCl extracts. Overall Tween-20 extracts effectively decreased levels of TNF-α, IL-1, IL-2 and IL-6 as observed using cytokine bioassays. Twenty micrograms of Tween-20 Perna extracts induced such significant decreases in inflammatory cytokine production that when tested on sensitive cell lines, they very nearly abolished the decrease in viability induced by these cytokines. Tween-20 extracts effectively inhibited both COX-1 and COX-2 cyclooxygenase activity. As a comparison, the glycogen extract also demonstrated a similar though weaker effect on COX-1 and COX-2 enzymes. The active components of both extracts (Tween-20 and glycogen) were observed to possess molecular weights above 100 kDa. Although the anti-cytokine activity of the Tween-20 extract was destroyed by Proteinase-K treatment, the anti-COX-1 and anti-COX-2 activity of both the extracts were not sensitive to protease treatment. CONCLUSION: We have successfully demonstrated modulation in the levels of inflammatory cytokines, cyclooxygenase enzymes and immunoglobulins by our in-house laboratory preparations of Perna canaliculus, whereby suggesting an immunomodulatory role of Perna canaliculus in regulating inflammation

Alternative Ii-independent antigen-processing pathway in leukemic blasts involves TAP-dependent peptide loading of HLA class II complexes

During HLA class II synthesis in antigen-presenting cells, the invariant chain (Ii) not only stabilizes HLA class II complexes in the endoplasmic reticulum, but also mediates their transport to specialized lysosomal antigen-loading compartments termed MIICs. This study explores an alternative HLA class II presentation pathway in leukemic blasts that involves proteasome and transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP)-dependent peptide loading. Although HLA-DR did associate with Ii, Ii silencing in the human class II-associated invariant chain peptide (CLIP)-negative KG-1 myeloid leukemic cell line did not affect total and plasma membrane expression levels of HLA-DR, as determined by western blotting and flow cytometry. Since HLA-DR expression does require peptide binding, we examined the role of endogenous antigen-processing machinery in HLA-DR presentation by CLIP− leukemic blasts. The suppression of proteasome and TAP function using various inhibitors resulted in decreased HLA-DR levels in both CLIP− KG-1 and ME-1 blasts. Simultaneous inhibition of TAP and Ii completely down-modulated the expression of HLA-DR, demonstrating that together these molecules form the key mediators of HLA class II antigen presentation in leukemic blasts. By the use of a proteasome- and TAP-dependent pathway for HLA class II antigen presentation, CLIP− leukemic blasts might be able to present a broad range of endogenous leukemia-associated peptides via HLA class II to activate leukemia-specific CD4+ T cells

The oxysterol 27-hydroxycholesterol increases β-amyloid and oxidative stress in retinal pigment epithelial cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alzheimer's disease (AD) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) share several pathological features including β-amyloid (Aβ) peptide accumulation, oxidative damage, and cell death. The causes of AD and AMD are not known but several studies suggest disturbances in cholesterol metabolism as a culprit of these diseases. We have recently shown that the cholesterol oxidation metabolite 27-hydroxycholesterol (27-OHC) causes AD-like pathology in human neuroblastoma SH-SY5Y cells and in organotypic hippocampal slices. However, the extent to which and the mechanisms by which 27-OHC may also cause pathological hallmarks related to AMD are ill-defined. In this study, the effects of 27-OHC on AMD-related pathology were determined in ARPE-19 cells. These cells have structural and functional properties relevant to retinal pigmented epithelial cells, a target in the course of AMD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ARPE-19 cells were treated with 0, 10 or 25 μM 27-OHC for 24 hours. Levels of Aβ peptide, mitochondrial and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress markers, Ca²⁺homeostasis, glutathione depletion, reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, inflammation and cell death were assessed using ELISA, Western blot, immunocytochemistry, and specific assays.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>27-OHC dose-dependently increased Aβ peptide production, increased levels of ER stress specific markers caspase 12 and gadd153 (also called CHOP), reduced mitochondrial membrane potential, triggered Ca²⁺dyshomeostasis, increased levels of the nuclear factor κB (NFκB) and heme-oxygenase 1 (HO-1), two proteins activated by oxidative stress. Additionally, 27-OHC caused glutathione depletion, ROS generation, inflammation and apoptotic-mediated cell death.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The cholesterol metabolite 27-OHC is toxic to RPE cells. The deleterious effects of this oxysterol ranged from Aβ accumulation to oxidative cell damage. Our results suggest that high levels of 27-OHC may represent a common pathogenic factor for both AMD and AD.</p

Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Apoptosis in Cumulus Cells of Type I Diabetic Mice

Impaired oocyte quality has been demonstrated in diabetic mice; however, the potential pathways by which maternal diabetes exerts its effects on the oocyte are poorly understood. Cumulus cells are in direct contact with the oocyte via gap junctions and provide essential nutrients to support oocyte development. In this study, we investigated the effects of maternal diabetes on the mitochondrial status in cumulus cells. We found an increased frequency of fragmented mitochondria, a decreased transmembrane potential and an aggregated distribution of mitochondria in cumulus cells from diabetic mice. Furthermore, while mitochondrial biogenesis in cumulus cells was induced by maternal diabetes, their metabolic function was disrupted as evidenced by lower ATP and citrate levels. Moreover, we present evidence suggesting that the mitochondrial impairments induced by maternal diabetes, at least in part, lead to cumulus cell apoptosis through the release of cytochrome c. Together the deleterious effects on cumulus cells may disrupt trophic and signaling interactions with the oocyte, contributing to oocyte incompetence and thus poor pregnancy outcomes in diabetic females

Synaptic Dysbindin-1 Reductions in Schizophrenia Occur in an Isoform-Specific Manner Indicating Their Subsynaptic Location

Background: An increasing number of studies report associations between variation in DTNBP1, a top candidate gene in schizophrenia, and both the clinical symptoms of the disorder and its cognitive deficits. DTNBP1 encodes dysbindin-1, reduced levels of which have been found in synaptic fields of schizophrenia cases. This study determined whether such synaptic reductions are isoform-specific. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using Western blotting of tissue fractions, we first determined the synaptic localization of the three major dysbindin-1 isoforms (A, B, and C). All three were concentrated in synaptosomes of multiple brain areas, including auditory association cortices in the posterior half of the superior temporal gyrus (pSTG) and the hippocampal formation (HF). Tests on the subsynaptic tissue fractions revealed that each isoform is predominantly, if not exclusively, associated with synaptic vesicles (dysbindin-1B) or with postsynaptic densities (dysbindin-1A and -1C). Using Western blotting on pSTG (n = 15) and HF (n = 15) synaptosomal fractions from schizophrenia cases and their matched controls, we discovered that synaptic dysbindin-1 is reduced in an isoform-specific manner in schizophrenia without changes in levels of synaptophysin or PSD-95. In pSTG, about 92% of the schizophrenia cases displayed synaptic dysbindin-1A reductions averaging 48% (p = 0.0007) without alterations in other dysbindin-1 isoforms. In the HF, by contrast, schizophrenia cases displayed normal levels of synaptic dysbindin-1A, but 67% showed synaptic reductions in dysbindin-1B averaging 33% (p = 0.0256), while 80% showed synaptic reductions in dysbindin-1C averaging 35% (p = 0.0171). Conclusions/Significance: Given the distinctive subsynaptic localization of dysbindin-1A, -1B, and -1C across brain regions, the observed pSTG reductions in dysbindin-1A are postsynaptic and may promote dendritic spine loss with consequent disruption of auditory information processing, while the noted HF reductions in dysbindin-1B and -1C are both presynaptic and postsynaptic and could promote deficits in spatial working memory