Respective impacts of Arctic sea ice decline and increasing greenhouse gases concentration on Sahel precipitation

The impact of climate change on Sahel precipitation is uncertain and has to be widely documented. Recently, it has been shown that Arctic sea ice loss leverages the global warming effects worldwide, suggesting a potential impact of Arctic sea ice decline on tropical regions. However, defining the specific roles of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration and declining Arctic sea ice extent on Sahel climate is not straightforward since the former impacts the latter. We avoid this dependency by analysing idealized experiments performed with the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. Results show that the increase in GHG concentration explains most of the Sahel precipitation change. We found that the impact due to Arctic sea ice loss depends on the level of atmospheric GHG concentration. When the GHG concentration is relatively low (values representative of 1980s), then the impact is moderate over the Sahel. However, when the concentration in GHG is levelled up, then Arctic sea ice loss leads to increased Sahel precipitation. In this particular case the ocean-land meridional gradient of temperature strengthens, allowing a more intense monsoon circulation. We linked the non-linearity of Arctic sea ice decline impact with differences in temperature and sea level pressure changes over the North Atlantic Ocean. We argue that the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss will become more relevant with time, in the context of climate change

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)

The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study ELVIC (climate Extremes in the Lake VICtoria basin) was recently established to investigate how extreme weather events will evolve in this region of the world and to provide improved information for the climate impact community. Here we assess the added value of the convection-permitting scale simulations on the representation of moist convective systems over and around Lake Victoria. With this aim, 10 year present-day model simulations were carried out with five regional climate models at both PARameterized (PAR) scales (12–25 km) and Convection-Permitting (CP) scales (2.5–4.5 km), with COSMO-CLM, RegCM, AROME, WRF and UKMO. Most substantial systematic improvements were found in metrics related to deep convection. For example, the timing of the daily maximum in precipitation is systematically delayed in CP compared to PAR models, thereby improving the agreement with observations. The large overestimation in the total number of rainy events is alleviated in the CP models. Systematic improvements were found in the diurnal cycle in Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiation and in some metrics for precipitation intensity. No unanimous improvement nor deterioration was found in the representation of the spatial distribution of total rainfall and the seasonal cycle when going to the CP scale. Furthermore, some substantial biases in TOA upward radiative fluxes remain. Generally our analysis indicates that the representation of the convective systems is strongly improved in CP compared to PAR models, giving confidence that the models are valuable tools for studying how extreme precipitation events may evolve in the future in the Lake Victoria basin and its surroundings

Evaluation of dipstick analysis among elderly residents to detect bacteriuria: a cross-sectional study in 32 nursing homes

Background: Up to half the residents of nursing homes for the elderly have asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU), which should not be treated with antibiotics. Thus, it is difficult to know if new symptoms in residents with bacteriuria are caused by urinary tract infection (UTI), or if bacteriuria only represents an ABU. This is especially difficult in the presence of non-urinary tract specific symptoms. The diagnostic uncertainty is likely to generate significant overtreatment with UTI antibiotics. Aim: The general aim was to clarify the association between symptoms, bacteriuria, dipstick urinalysis and urine Interleukin-6 (IL-6) among nursing home residents to improve the diagnostic procedure of a suspected lower UTI. Methods: In 2003 a study protocol including newly onset symptoms was completed, and single voided urine specimens collected for dipstick urinalysis and cultures from 651 residents of 32 participating Swedish nursing homes for the elderly. This data was used for a study of dipstick urinalysis (Paper I) and for a study of nonspecific symptoms and bacteriuria (Paper II). In 2012, similar data was collected for 421 elderly residents of 22 nursing homes, which also included an analysis of IL-6 in urine and urine specimens from another 59 residents with urinary catheters. The association between bacteriuria, IL-6 in urine, dipstick urinalysis and newly onset symptoms was analysed (Paper III). Antimicrobial resistance rates were described among residents of nursing homes in 2012 and compared with those from 2003 (Paper IV). Results: Paper I: The negative predictive value for predicting absence of bacteriuria was 88 (84-92)% when dipstick urinalysis for nitrite and leukocyte esterase were simultaneously negative. A positive dipstick or any combination thereof could not sufficiently predict bacteriuria. Papers II-III: New or increased nonspecific symptoms were common among elderly residents of nursing homes. Residents without nonspecific symptoms had positive urine cultures as often as those with nonspecific symptoms with a duration of up to one month. Paper III: Residents with positive urine cultures had higher concentrations of IL-6 in the urine. However, among residents with positive urine cultures there were no differences in IL-6 concentrations or dipstick findings between those with or without nonspecific symptoms. Paper IV: The average rates of antimicrobial resistance were low and did not increase between 2003 and 2012 in Escherichia coli (E. coli) urinary isolates among Swedish nursing home residents. Any antibiotic treatment during the last month and hospitalization during the last six months predicted higher resistance rates among E. coli. Conclusions: Nonspecific symptoms among elderly residents of nursing homes are unlikely to be caused by bacteria in the urine. Therefore, dipstick urinalysis, IL-6 in the urine and urine cultures are of little or no value in clarifying the aetiology of nonspecific symptoms. If there is a reason for testing for bacteriuria, dipstick urinalysis for nitrite and leukocyte esterase can rule out but cannot reliably rule in bacteriuria. Antimicrobial resistance in urinary pathogens among Swedish nursing home residents remained low. It is important to use antibiotics rationally to preserve the effectiveness of antibiotics

You Mate, I Mate: Macaque Females Synchronize Sex not Cycles

Extended female sexuality in species living in multimale-multifemale groups appears to enhance benefits from multiple males. Mating with many males, however, requires a low female monopolizability, which is affected by the spatiotemporal distribution of receptive females. Ovarian cycle synchrony potentially promotes overlapping receptivity if fertile and receptive periods are tightly linked. In primates, however, mating is often decoupled from hormonal control, hence reducing the need for synchronizing ovarian events. Here, we test the alternative hypothesis that females behaviorally coordinate their receptivity while simultaneously investigating ovarian cycle synchrony in wild, seasonal Assamese macaques (Macaca assamensis), a promiscuous species with extremely extended female sexuality. Using fecal hormone analysis to assess ovarian activity we show that fertile phases are randomly distributed, and that dyadic spatial proximity does not affect their distribution. We present evidence for mating synchrony, i.e., the occurrence of the females' receptivity was significantly associated with the proportion of other females mating on a given day. Our results suggest social facilitation of mating synchrony, which explains (i) the high number of simultaneously receptive females, and (ii) the low male mating skew in this species. Active mating synchronization may serve to enhance the benefits of extended female sexuality, and may proximately explain its patterning and maintenance