Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low-carbon energy system in the United Kingdom: challenges, insights and opportunities

The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy ‘trilemma,’ i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility,social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system ‘actors’ (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and technoeconomic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders

Hair Cortisol in Twins: Heritability and Genetic Overlap with Psychological Variables and Stress-System Genes

Hair cortisol concentration (HCC) is a promising measure of long-Term hypothalamus-pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) axis activity. Previous research has suggested an association between HCC and psychological variables, and initial studies of inter-individual variance in HCC have implicated genetic factors. However, whether HCC and psychological variables share genetic risk factors remains unclear. The aims of the present twin study were to: (i) assess the heritability of HCC; (ii) estimate the phenotypic and genetic correlation between HPA axis activity and the psychological variables perceived stress, depressive symptoms, and neuroticism; using formal genetic twin models and molecular genetic methods, i.e. polygenic risk scores (PRS). HCC was measured in 671 adolescents and young adults. These included 115 monozygotic and 183 dizygotic twin-pairs. For 432 subjects PRS scores for plasma cortisol, major depression, and neuroticism were calculated using data from large genome wide association studies. The twin model revealed a heritability for HCC of 72%. No significant phenotypic or genetic correlation was found between HCC and the three psychological variables of interest. PRS did not explain variance in HCC. The present data suggest that HCC is highly heritable. However, the data do not support a strong biological link between HCC and any of the investigated psychological variables

Parallel molecular routes to cold adaptation in eight genera of New Zealand stick insects.

The acquisition of physiological strategies to tolerate novel thermal conditions allows organisms to exploit new environments. As a result, thermal tolerance is a key determinant of the global distribution of biodiversity, yet the constraints on its evolution are not well understood. Here we investigate parallel evolution of cold tolerance in New Zealand stick insects, an endemic radiation containing three montane-occurring species. Using a phylogeny constructed from 274 orthologous genes, we show that stick insects have independently colonized montane environments at least twice. We compare supercooling point and survival of internal ice formation among ten species from eight genera, and identify both freeze tolerance and freeze avoidance in separate montane lineages. Freeze tolerance is also verified in both lowland and montane populations of a single, geographically widespread, species. Transcriptome sequencing following cold shock identifies a set of structural cuticular genes that are both differentially regulated and under positive sequence selection in each species. However, while cuticular proteins in general are associated with cold shock across the phylogeny, the specific genes at play differ among species. Thus, while processes related to cuticular structure are consistently associated with adaptation for cold, this may not be the consequence of shared ancestral genetic constraints

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts

A principal component meta-analysis on multiple anthropometric traits identifies novel loci for body shape

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Large consortia have revealed hundreds of genetic loci associated with anthropometric traits, one trait at a time. We examined whether genetic variants affect body shape as a composite phenotype that is represented by a combination of anthropometric traits. We developed an approach that calculates averaged PCs (AvPCs) representing body shape derived from six anthropometric traits (body mass index, height, weight, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio). The first four AvPCs explain >99% of the variability, are heritable, and associate with cardiometabolic outcomes. We performed genome-wide association analyses for each body shape composite phenotype across 65 studies and meta-analysed summary statistics. We identify six novel loci: LEMD2 and CD47 for AvPC1, RPS6KA5/C14orf159 and GANAB for AvPC3, and ARL15 and ANP32 for AvPC4. Our findings highlight the value of using multiple traits to define complex phenotypes for discovery, which are not captured by single-trait analyses, and may shed light onto new pathways

Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of recurrent wheezing during the first years of life (BAMSE)

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cigarette smoking during foetal and early postnatal life may have implications for lung health. The aim of this study was to assess the possible effects of such exposure in utero on lower respiratory disease in children up to two years of age. METHODS: A birth cohort of 4089 newborn infants was followed for two years using parental questionnaires. When the infant was two months old the parents completed a questionnaire on various lifestyle factors, including maternal smoking during pregnancy and after birth. At one and two years of age information was obtained by questionnaire on symptoms of allergic and respiratory diseases as well as on environmental exposures, particularly exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Adjustments were made for potential confounders. RESULTS: When the mother had smoked during pregnancy but not after that, there was an increased risk of recurrent wheezing up to two years' age, OR(adj )= 2.2, (95% CI 1.3 – 3.6). The corresponding OR was 1.6, (95% CI 1.2 – 2.3) for reported exposure to ETS with or without maternal smoking in utero. Maternal smoking during pregnancy but no exposure to ETS also increased the risk of doctor's diagnosed asthma up to two years of age, OR(adj )= 2.1, (95% CI 1.2 – 3.7). CONCLUSION: Exposure to maternal cigarette smoking in utero is a risk factor for recurrent wheezing, as well as doctor's diagnosed asthma in children up to two yearsof age

Geographic determinants of reported human Campylobacter infections in Scotland

<p><b>Background:</b> Campylobacteriosis is the leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in most developed countries. People are exposed to infection from contaminated food and environmental sources. However, the translation of these exposures into infection in the human population remains incompletely understood. This relationship is further complicated by differences in the presentation of cases, their investigation, identification, and reporting; thus, the actual differences in risk must be considered alongside the artefactual differences.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Data on 33,967 confirmed Campylobacter infections in mainland Scotland between 2000 and 2006 (inclusive) that were spatially referenced to the postcode sector level were analysed. Risk factors including the Carstairs index of social deprivation, the easting and northing of the centroid of the postcode sector, measures of livestock density by species and population density were tested in univariate screening using a non-spatial generalised linear model. The NHS Health Board of the case was included as a random effect in this final model. Subsequently, a spatial generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) was constructed and age-stratified sensitivity analysis was conducted on this model.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> The spatial GLMM included the protective effects of the Carstairs index (relative risk (RR) = 0.965, 95% Confidence intervals (CIs) = 0.959, 0.971) and population density (RR = 0.945, 95% CIs = 0.916, 0.974. Following stratification by age group, population density had a significant protective effect (RR = 0.745, 95% CIs = 0.700, 0.792) for those under 15 but not for those aged 15 and older (RR = 0.982, 95% CIs = 0.951, 1.014). Once these predictors have been taken into account three NHS Health Boards remain at significantly greater risk (Grampian, Highland and Tayside) and two at significantly lower risk (Argyll and Ayrshire and Arran).</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> The less deprived and children living in rural areas are at the greatest risk of being reported as a case of Campylobacter infection. However, this analysis cannot differentiate between actual risk and heterogeneities in individual reporting behaviour; nevertheless this paper has demonstrated that it is possible to explain the pattern of reported Campylobacter infections using both social and environmental predictors.</p&gt

Establishment of a murine epidermal cell line suitable for in vitro and in vivo skin modelling

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Skin diseases are a major health problem. Some of the most severe conditions involve genetic disorders, including cancer. Several of these human diseases have been modelled in genetically modified mice, thus becoming a highly valuable preclinical tool for the treatment of these pathologies. However, development of three-dimensional models of skin using keratinocytes from normal and/or genetically modified mice has been hindered by the difficulty to subculture murine epidermal keratinocytes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We have generated a murine epidermal cell line by serially passaging keratinocytes isolated from the back skin of adult mice. We have termed this cell line COCA. Cell culture is done in fully defined media and does not require feeder cells or any other coating methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>COCA retained its capacity to differentiate and stratify in response to increased calcium concentration in the cell culture medium for more than 75 passages. These cells, including late passage, can form epidermis-like structures in three-dimensional <it>in vitro </it>models with a well-preserved pattern of proliferation and differentiation. Furthermore, these cells form epidermis in grafting assays <it>in vivo</it>, and do not develop tumorigenic ability.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We propose that COCA constitutes a good experimental system for <it>in vitro </it>and <it>in vivo </it>skin modelling. Also, cell lines from genetically modified mice of interest in skin biology could be established using the method we have developed. COCA keratinocytes would be a suitable control, within a similar background, when studying the biological implications of these alterations.</p

The ‘microflora hypothesis’ of allergic diseases

Increasingly, epidemiologic and clinical data support the hypothesis that perturbations in the gastrointestinal (GI) microbiota because of antibiotic use and dietary differences in ‘industrialized’ countries have disrupted the normal microbiota-mediated mechanisms of immunological tolerance in the mucosa, leading to an increase in the incidence of allergic airway disease. The data supporting this ‘microflora hypothesis’ includes correlations between allergic airway disease and (1) antibiotic use early in life, (2) altered fecal microbiota and (3) dietary changes over the past two decades. Our laboratory has recently demonstrated that mice can develop allergic airway responses to allergens if their endogenous microbiota is altered at the time of first allergen exposure. These experimental and clinical observations are consistent with other studies demonstrating that the endogenous microbiota plays a significant role in shaping the development of the immune system. Data are beginning to accumulate that a ‘balanced’ microbiota plays a positive role in maintaining mucosal immunologic tolerance long after post-natal development. Other studies have demonstrated that even small volumes delivered to the nasopharynx largely end up in the GI tract, suggesting that airway tolerance and oral tolerance may operate simultaneously. The mechanism of microbiota modulation of host immunity is not known; however, host and microbial oxylipins are one potential set of immunomodulatory molecules that may control mucosal tolerance. The cumulative data are beginning to support the notion that probiotic and prebiotic strategies be considered for patients coming off of antibiotic therapy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73451/1/j.1365-2222.2005.02379.x.pd

Long-Term Cold Acclimation Extends Survival Time at 0°C and Modifies the Metabolomic Profiles of the Larvae of the Fruit Fly Drosophila melanogaster

Drosophila melanogaster is a chill-susceptible insect. Previous studies on this fly focused on acute direct chilling injury during cold shock and showed that lower lethal temperature (LLT, approximately -5°C) exhibits relatively low plasticity and that acclimations, both rapid cold hardening (RCH) and long-term cold acclimation, shift the LLT by only a few degrees at the maximum.We found that long-term cold acclimation considerably improved cold tolerance in fully grown third-instar larvae of D. melanogaster. A comparison of the larvae acclimated at constant 25°C with those acclimated at constant 15°C followed by constant 6°C for 2 d (15°C→6°C) showed that long-term cold acclimation extended the lethal time for 50% of the population (Lt(50)) during exposure to constant 0°C as much as 630-fold (from 0.137 h to 86.658 h). Such marked physiological plasticity in Lt(50) (in contrast to LLT) suggested that chronic indirect chilling injury at 0°C differs from that caused by cold shock. Long-term cold acclimation modified the metabolomic profiles of the larvae. Accumulations of proline (up to 17.7 mM) and trehalose (up to 36.5 mM) were the two most prominent responses. In addition, restructuring of the glycerophospholipid composition of biological membranes was observed. The relative proportion of glycerophosphoethanolamines (especially those with linoleic acid at the sn-2 position) increased at the expense of glycerophosphocholines.Third-instar larvae of D. melanogaster improved their cold tolerance in response to long-term cold acclimation and showed metabolic potential for the accumulation of proline and trehalose and for membrane restructuring