Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

The theory of international business: the role of economic models

This paper reviews the scope for economic modelling in international business studies. It argues for multi-level theory based on classic internalisation theory. It present a systems approach that encompasses both firm-level and industry-level analysis

Metabolomics demonstrates divergent responses of two Eucalyptus species to water stress

Past studies of water stress in Eucalyptus spp. generally highlighted the role of fewer than five “important” metabolites, whereas recent metabolomic studies on other genera have shown tens of compounds are affected. There are currently no metabolite profiling data for responses of stress-tolerant species to water stress. We used GC–MS metabolite profiling to examine the response of leaf metabolites to a long (2 month) and severe (Ψpredawn < −2 MPa) water stress in two species of the perennial tree genus Eucalyptus (the mesic Eucalyptus pauciflora and the semi-arid Eucalyptus dumosa). Polar metabolites in leaves were analysed by GC–MS and inorganic ions by capillary electrophoresis. Pressure–volume curves and metabolite measurements showed that water stress led to more negative osmotic potential and increased total osmotically active solutes in leaves of both species. Water stress affected around 30–40% of measured metabolites in E. dumosa and 10–15% in E. pauciflora. There were many metabolites that were affected in E. dumosa but not E. pauciflora, and some that had opposite responses in the two species. For example, in E. dumosa there were increases in five acyclic sugar alcohols and four low-abundance carbohydrates that were unaffected by water stress in E. pauciflora. Re-watering increased osmotic potential and decreased total osmotically active solutes in E. pauciflora, whereas in E. dumosa re-watering led to further decreases in osmotic potential and increases in total osmotically active solutes. This experiment has added several extra dimensions to previous targeted analyses of water stress responses in Eucalyptus, and highlights that even species that are closely related (e.g. congeners) may respond differently to water stress and re-waterin

Reducing bias in auditory duration reproduction by integrating the reproduced signal

Duration estimation is known to be far from veridical and to differ for sensory estimates and motor reproduction. To investigate how these differential estimates are integrated for estimating or reproducing a duration and to examine sensorimotor biases in duration comparison and reproduction tasks, we compared estimation biases and variances among three different duration estimation tasks: perceptual comparison, motor reproduction, and auditory reproduction (i.e. a combined perceptual-motor task). We found consistent overestimation in both motor and perceptual-motor auditory reproduction tasks, and the least overestimation in the comparison task. More interestingly, compared to pure motor reproduction, the overestimation bias was reduced in the auditory reproduction task, due to the additional reproduced auditory signal. We further manipulated the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the feedback/comparison tones to examine the changes in estimation biases and variances. Considering perceptual and motor biases as two independent components, we applied the reliability-based model, which successfully predicted the biases in auditory reproduction. Our findings thus provide behavioral evidence of how the brain combines motor and perceptual information together to reduce duration estimation biases and improve estimation reliability

Mindfulness based interventions in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a stressful condition; depression, anxiety, pain and fatigue are all common problems. Mindfulness based interventions (MBIs) mitigate stress and prevent relapse in depression and are increasingly being used in healthcare. However, there are currently no systematic reviews of MBIs in people with MS. This review aims to evaluate the effectiveness of MBIs in people with MS.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; Systematic searches were carried out in seven major databases, using both subject headings and key words. Papers were screened, data extracted, quality appraised, and analysed by two reviewers independently, using predefined criteria. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. Perceived stress was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes include mental health, physical health, quality of life, and health service utilisation. Statistical meta-analysis was not possible. Disagreements were adjudicated by a third party reviewer.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; Three studies (n = 183 participants) were included in the final analysis. The studies were undertaken in Wales (n = 16, randomised controlled trial - (RCT)), Switzerland (n = 150, RCT), and the United States (n = 17, controlled trial). 146 (80%) participants were female; mean age (SD) was 48.6 (9.4) years. Relapsing remitting MS was the main diagnostic category (n = 123, 67%); 43 (26%) had secondary progressive disease; and the remainder were unspecified. MBIs lasted 6–8 weeks; attrition rates were variable (5-43%); all employed pre- post- measures; two had longer follow up; one at 3, and one at 6 months. Socio-economic status of participants was not made explicit; health service utilisation and costs were not reported. No study reported on perceived stress. All studies reported quality of life (QOL), mental health (anxiety and depression), physical (fatigue, standing balance, pain), and psychosocial measures. Statistically significant beneficial effects relating to QOL, mental health, and selected physical health measures were sustained at 3- and 6- month follow up.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; From the limited data available, MBIs may benefit some MS patients in terms of QOL, mental health, and some physical health measures. Further studies are needed to clarify how MBIs might best serve the MS population.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt

Physical and mental health comorbidity is common in people with multiple sclerosis: nationally representative cross-sectional population database analysis

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; Comorbidity in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is associated with worse health and higher mortality. This study aims to describe clinician recorded comorbidities in people with MS. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt; 39 comorbidities in 3826 people with MS aged ≥25 years were compared against 1,268,859 controls. Results were analysed by age, gender, and socioeconomic status, with unadjusted and adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs) calculated using logistic regression. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt; People with MS were more likely to have one (OR 2.44; 95% CI 2.26-2.64), two (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.38-1.62), three (OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.69-2.04), four or more (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.47-1.77) non-MS chronic conditions than controls, and greater mental health comorbidity (OR 2.94; 95% CI 2.75-3.14), which increased as the number of physical comorbidities rose. Cardiovascular conditions, including atrial fibrillation (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.36-0.67), chronic kidney disease (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.40-0.65), heart failure (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.45-0.85), coronary heart disease (OR 0.64; 95% CI 0.52-0.71), and hypertension (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.59-0.72) were significantly less common in people with MS. &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusion&lt;/b&gt; People with MS have excess multiple chronic conditions, with associated increased mental health comorbidity. The low recorded cardiovascular comorbidity warrants further investigation

A Schwarz lemma for K\"ahler affine metrics and the canonical potential of a proper convex cone

This is an account of some aspects of the geometry of K\"ahler affine metrics based on considering them as smooth metric measure spaces and applying the comparison geometry of Bakry-Emery Ricci tensors. Such techniques yield a version for K\"ahler affine metrics of Yau's Schwarz lemma for volume forms. By a theorem of Cheng and Yau there is a canonical K\"ahler affine Einstein metric on a proper convex domain, and the Schwarz lemma gives a direct proof of its uniqueness up to homothety. The potential for this metric is a function canonically associated to the cone, characterized by the property that its level sets are hyperbolic affine spheres foliating the cone. It is shown that for an $n$-dimensional cone a rescaling of the canonical potential is an $n$-normal barrier function in the sense of interior point methods for conic programming. It is explained also how to construct from the canonical potential Monge-Amp\`ere metrics of both Riemannian and Lorentzian signatures, and a mean curvature zero conical Lagrangian submanifold of the flat para-K\"ahler space.Comment: Minor corrections. References adde

CD98hc facilitates B cell proliferation and adaptive humoral immunity.

The proliferation of antigen-specific lymphocytes and resulting clonal expansion are essential for adaptive immunity. We report here that B cell-specific deletion of the heavy chain of CD98 (CD98hc) resulted in lower antibody responses due to total suppression of B cell proliferation and subsequent plasma cell formation. Deletion of CD98hc did not impair early B cell activation but did inhibit later activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase Erk1/2 and downregulation of the cell cycle inhibitor p27. Reconstitution of CD98hc-deficient B cells with CD98hc mutants showed that the integrin-binding domain of CD98hc was required for B cell proliferation but that the amino acid-transport function of CD98hc was dispensable for this. Thus, CD98hc supports integrin-dependent rapid proliferation of B cells. We propose that the advantage of adaptive immunity favored the appearance of CD98hc in vertebrates

Trees and shrubs as sources of fodder in Australia

Experience with browse plants in Australia is briefly reviewed in terms of their forage value to animals, their economic value to the landholder and their ecological contribution to landscape stability. Of the cultivated species only two have achieved any degree of commercial acceptance (Leucaena leucocephala and Chamaecytisus palmensis). Both of these are of sufficiently high forage value to be used as the sole source of feed during seasonal periods of nutritional shortage. Both are also leguminous shrubs that establish readily from seed. It is suggested that a limitation in their present use is the reliance on stands of single species which leaves these grazing systems vulnerable to disease and insects. Grazing systems so far developed for high production and persistence of cultivated species involve short periods of intense grazing followed by long periods of recovery. Similar management may be necessary in the arid and semi-arid rangelands where palatable browse species are in decline