Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Suppression, but not reappraisal, is associated with inflammation in trauma-exposed veterans

BackgroundEmotion dysregulation can elicit inflammatory activity. The current study examined whether specific maladaptive and adaptive emotion regulation strategies were associated with inflammatory markers in trauma-exposed veterans, above and beyond PTSD.MethodsIn a cohort study, 606 participants exposed to a Criterion A trauma and recruited from Veteran Health Administration facilities completed fasting blood draws, the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire, and the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale-IV. Inflammation was assessed with high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), white blood cell count (WBC), and fibrinogen levels. An inflammation index was created by summing standardized log-transformed levels of the three biomarkers. Our primary linear regression models were adjusted for sex, age, race, education, income, creatinine, and PTSD.ResultsSuppression, but not cognitive reappraisal, was significantly associated with higher levels of the inflammatory index (β = 0.14, p = 0.001). Parallel analyses for the individual inflammatory markers also showed suppression, but not reappraisal, was significantly associated with higher hsCRP (β = 0.11, p = 0.01), WBC (β = 0.11, p = 0.01), and fibrinogen (β = 0.10, p = 0.02).ConclusionsEmotional suppression is related to elevated systemic inflammation independent of PTSD. Cognitive reappraisal is unrelated to inflammation. Findings suggest over-utilization of maladaptive, rather than under-utilization of adaptive, emotion regulation strategies may be associated with systemic inflammation in trauma-exposed veterans

The Relationship between Body Mass Index and Mental Health Among Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a growing public health concern and is becoming an epidemic among veterans in the post-deployment period. OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in a large cohort of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, and to evaluate trajectories of change in BMI over 3 years. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal cohort analysis of veterans’ health records PARTICIPANTS: A total of 496,722 veterans (59,790 female and 436,932 male veterans) whose height and weight were recorded at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system at least once after the end of their last deployment and whose first post-deployment outpatient encounter at the VA was at least 1 year prior to the end of the study period (December 31, 2011). MAIN MEASURES: BMI, mental health diagnoses. KEY RESULTS: Seventy-five percent of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans were either overweight or obese at baseline. Four trajectories were observed: “stable overweight” represented the largest class; followed by “stable obese;” “overweight/obese gaining;” and “obese losing.” During the 3-year ascertainment period, those with PTSD and depression in particular were at the greatest risk of being either obese without weight loss or overweight or obese and continuing to gain weight. Adjustment for demographics and antipsychotic medication attenuated the relationship between BMI and certain mental health diagnoses. Although BMI trajectories were similar in men and women, some gender differences were observed. For example, the risk of being in the persistently obese class in men was highest for those with PTSD, whereas for women, the risk was highest among those with depression. CONCLUSIONS: The growing number of overweight or obese returning veterans is a concerning problem for clinicians who work with these patients. Successful intervention to reduce the prevalence of obesity will require integrated efforts from primary care and mental health to treat underlying mental health causes and assist with engagement in weight loss programs. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11606-013-2374-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users