Weight management: a comparison of existing dietary approaches in a work-site setting

<b>OBJECTIVES:</b> (1) To compare the effectiveness a 2512 kJ (600 kcal) daily energy deficit diet (ED) with a 6279 kJ (1500 kcal) generalized low-calorie diet (GLC) over a 24 week period (12 weeks weight loss plus 12 weeks weight maintenance). (2) To determine if the inclusion of lean red meat at least five times per week as part of a slimming diet is compatible with weight loss in comparison with a diet that excludes lean red meat. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. <b>SETTING:</b> Large petrochemical work-site. <b>PARTICIPANTS:</b> One-hundred and twenty-two men aged between 18 and 55 y. <b>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:</b> Weight loss and maintenance of weight loss. <b>INTERVENTION:</b> Eligible volunteers were randomized to one of the four diet=meat combinations (ED meat, ED no meat, GLC meat, GLC no meat). One-third of subjects in each diet/meat combination were randomized to an initial control period prior to receiving dietary advice. All subjects attended for review every 2 weeks during the weight loss period. For the 12 week structured weight maintenance phase, individualized energy prescriptions were re-calculated for the ED group as 1.4 (activity factor)x basal metabolic rate. Healthy eating advice was reviewed with subjects in the GLC group. All subjects were contacted by electronic mail at 2 week intervals and anthropometric and dietary information requested. <b>RESULTS:</b> No difference was evident between diet groups in mean weight loss at 12 weeks (4.3 (s.d. 3.4) kg ED group vs 5.0 (s.d. 3.5) kg GLC group, P=0.34). Mean weight loss was closer to the intended weight loss in the 2512 kJ (600 kcal) ED group. The dropout rate was also lower than the GLC group. The inclusion of lean red meat in the diet on at least five occasions per week did not impair weight loss. Mean weight gain following 12 weeks weight maintenance was þ1.1 (s.d. 1.8) kg, P<0.0001. No differences were found between groups. <b>CONCLUSIONS:</b> This study has shown that the individualized 2512 kJ (600 kcal) ED approach was no more effective in terms of weight loss than the 6279 kJ (1500 kcal) GLC approach. However the ED approach might be considered preferable as compliance was better with this less demanding prescription. In terms of weight loss the elimination of red meat from the diet is unnecessary. The weight maintenance intervention was designed as a low-input approach, however weight regain was significant and weight maintenance strategies require further development

Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave, China

The association between solar activity and Asian monsoon (AM) remains unclear. Here we evaluate the possible connection between them based on a precisely-dated, high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope record from Dongge Cave, southwest China during the past 4.2 thousand years (ka). Without being adjusted chronologically to the solar signal, our record shows a distinct peak-to-peak correlation with cosmogenic nuclide 14C, total solar irradiance (TSI) and sunspot number (SN) at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Further cross-wavelet analyses between our calcite δ18O and atmospheric 14C show statistically strong coherence at three typical periodicities of ~80, 200 and 340 years, suggesting important roles of solar activities in modulating AM changes at those timescales. Our result has further indicated a better correlation between our calcite δ18O record and atmospheric 14C than between our record and TSI. This better correlation may imply that the Sun–monsoon connection is dominated most likely by cosmic rays and oceanic circulation (both associated to atmospheric 14C), instead of the direct solar heating (TSI)

The convective storm initiation project

Copyright @ 2007 AMSThe Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) is an international project to understand precisely where, when, and how convective clouds form and develop into showers in the mainly maritime environment of southern England. A major aim of CSIP is to compare the results of the very high resolution Met Office weather forecasting model with detailed observations of the early stages of convective clouds and to use the newly gained understanding to improve the predictions of the model. A large array of ground-based instruments plus two instrumented aircraft, from the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and the German Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe, were deployed in southern England, over an area centered on the meteorological radars at Chilbolton, during the summers of 2004 and 2005. In addition to a variety of ground-based remote-sensing instruments, numerous rawin-sondes were released at one- to two-hourly intervals from six closely spaced sites. The Met Office weather radar network and Meteosat satellite imagery were used to provide context for the observations made by the instruments deployed during CSIP. This article presents an overview of the CSIP field campaign and examples from CSIP of the types of convective initiation phenomena that are typical in the United Kingdom. It shows the way in which certain kinds of observational data are able to reveal these phenomena and gives an explanation of how the analyses of data from the field campaign will be used in the development of an improved very high resolution NWP model for operational use.This work is funded by the National Environment Research Council following an initial award from the HEFCE Joint Infrastructure Fund

An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

Simulating the midlatitude atmospheric circulation: what might we gain from high-resolution modeling of air-sea interactions?

Purpose of Review. To provide a snapshot of the current research on the oceanic forcing of the atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes and a concise update on previous review papers. Recent findings. Atmospheric models used for seasonal and longer timescales predictions are starting to resolve motions so far only studied in conjunction with weather forecasts. These phenomena have horizontal scales of ~ 10–100 km which coincide with energetic scales in the ocean circulation. Evidence has been presented that, as a result of this matching of scale, oceanic forcing of the atmosphere was enhanced in models with 10–100 km grid size, especially at upper tropospheric levels. The robustness of these results and their underlying mechanisms are however unclear. Summary. Despite indications that higher resolution atmospheric models respond more strongly to sea surface temperature anomalies, their responses are still generally weaker than those estimated empirically from observations. Coarse atmospheric models (grid size greater than 100 km) will miss important signals arising from future changes in ocean circulation unless new parameterizations are developed

Role of educational level in the relationship between Body Mass Index (BMI) and health-related quality of life (HRQL) among rural Spanish women

BACKGROUND: The impact of obesity on health-related quality of life (HRQL) has been little explored in rural areas. The goal of this study is to ascertain the association between obesity and HRQL among Spanish women living in a rural area, and the influence of their educational level. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with personal interview of 1298 women (aged 18 to 60) randomly selected from the electoral rolls of 14 towns in Galicia, a region in the north-west of Spain. HRQL was assessed using the SF-36 questionnaire. The association between body mass index (BMI) and suboptimal scores in the different HRQL dimensions was summarised using odds ratios (ORs), obtained from multivariate logistic regression models. Separate analyses were conducted for women who had finished their education younger than 16 years old and women with secondary education to assess differences in the relationship between BMI and HRQL according to educational level. RESULTS: Among women with primary or lower education, obesity was associated with a higher prevalence of suboptimal values in the following dimensions: Physical functioning (OR: 1.97; 95%CI: 1.22-3.18); Role-physical (OR: 1.81; 95%CI: 1.04-3.14); General health (OR: 1.76; 95%CI: 1.10-2.81); and Role-emotional (OR: 2.52; 95%CI: 1.27-5.03). In women with higher education, physical functioning was the only dimension associated with obesity (OR: 2.02: 95%CI 0.83-4.97). CONCLUSION: The impact of obesity on women's HRQL is greater among those with a lower educational level. This group registered higher prevalence of obesity and poorer self-perceived health.This study was funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grant 001/05).S

Stochastic Dominance Analysis of CTA Funds

In this paper, we employ the stochastic dominance approach to rank the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds. An advantage of this approach is that it alleviates the problems that can arise if CTA returns are not normally distributed by utilizing the entire returns distribution. We find both first-order and higher-order stochastic dominance relationships amongst the CTA funds and conclude that investors would be better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected utilities and expected wealth. However, for higher-order dominant CTA, riskaverse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their expected wealth. We conclude that the stochastic dominance approach is more appropriate compared with traditional approaches as a filter in the CTA selection process given that a meaningful economic interpretation of the results is possible as the entire return distribution is utilized when returns are non-normal

Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy

Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these larger estimates may be the different temperature metrics used to estimate the observed global mean warming for the historical period, as they affect the size of the remaining carbon budget. Here we explain the reasons behind these remaining carbon budget increases, and discuss how methodological choices of the global mean temperature metric and the reference period influence estimates of the remaining carbon budget. We argue that the choice of the temperature metric should depend on the domain of application. For scientific estimates of total or remaining carbon budgets, globally averaged surface air temperature estimates should be used consistently for the past and the future. However, when used to inform the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal, a temperature metric consistent with the science that was underlying and directly informed the Paris Agreement should be applied. The resulting remaining carbon budgets should be calculated using the appropriate metric or adjusted to reflect these differences among temperature metrics. Transparency and understanding of the implications of such choices are crucial to providing useful information that can bridge the science–policy gap

Study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial investigating the effectiveness of a tailored energy balance programme for recent retirees

BACKGROUND: People in transitional life stages, such as occupational retirement, are likely to gain weight and accumulate abdominal fat mass caused by changes in physical activity and diet. Hence, retirees are an important target group for weight gain prevention programmes, as described in the present paper. METHODS/DESIGN: A systematic and stepwise approach (Intervention Mapping) is used to develop a low-intensity energy balance intervention programme for recent retirees. This one-year, low-intensity multifaceted programme aims to prevent accumulation of abdominal fat mass and general weight gain by increasing awareness of energy balance and influencing related behaviours of participants' preference. These behaviours are physical activity, fibre intake, portion size and fat consumption. The effectiveness of the intervention programme is tested in a cluster randomised controlled trial. Measurements of anthropometry, physical activity, energy intake, and related psychosocial determinants are performed at baseline and repeated at 6 months for intermediate effect, at 12 months to evaluate short-term intervention effects and at 24 months to test the sustainability of the effects. DISCUSSION: This intervention programme is unique in its focus on retirees and energy balance. It aims at increasing awareness and takes into account personal preferences of the users by offering several options for behaviour change. Moreover, the intervention programme is evaluated at short-term and long-term and includes consecutive outcome measures (determinants, behaviour and body composition)