Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play

Biocatalytic Synthesis of Polymers of Precisely Defined Structures

The fabrication of functional nanoscale devices requires the construction of complex architectures at length scales characteristic of atoms and molecules. Currently microlithography and micro-machining of macroscopic objects are the preferred methods for construction of small devices, but these methods are limited to the micron scale. An intriguing approach to nanoscale fabrication involves the association of individual molecular components into the desired architectures by supramolecular assembly. This process requires the precise specification of intermolecular interactions, which in turn requires precise control of molecular structure

Evidence of a Clear Atmosphere for WASP-62b: The Only Known Transiting Gas Giant in the JWST Continuous Viewing Zone

Exoplanets with cloud-free, haze-free atmospheres at the pressures probed by transmission spectroscopy represent a valuable opportunity for detailed atmospheric characterization and precise chemical abundance constraints. We present the first optical to infrared (0.3−5 μm) transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-62b, measured with Hubble/STIS and Spitzer/IRAC. The spectrum is characterized by a 5.1σ detection of Na I absorption at 0.59 μm, in which the pressurebroadened wings of the Na D-lines are observed from space for the first time. A spectral feature at 0.4 μm is tentatively attributed to SiH at 2.1σ confidence. Our retrieval analyses are consistent with a cloud-free atmosphere without significant contamination from stellar heterogeneities. We simulate James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations, for a combination of instrument modes, to assess the atmospheric characterization potential of WASP-62b. We demonstrate that JWST can conclusively detect Na, H2O, FeH, NH3, CO, CO2, CH4, and SiH within the scope of its Early Release Science (ERS) program. As the only transiting giant planet currently known in the JWST Continuous Viewing Zone, WASP-62b could prove a benchmark giant exoplanet for detailed atmospheric characterization in the James Webb era

Abundance measurements of H₂O and carbon-bearing species in the atmosphere of WASP-127b confirm its super-solar metallicity

The chemical abundances of exoplanet atmospheres may provide valuable information about the bulk compositions, formation pathways, and evolutionary histories of planets. Exoplanets with large, relatively cloud-free atmospheres, and which orbit bright stars provide the best opportunities for accurate abundance measurements. For this reason, we measured the transmission spectrum of the bright (V∼10.2), large (1.37 RJ), sub-Saturn mass (0.19 MJ) exoplanet WASP-127b across the near-UV to near-infrared wavelength range (0.3–5 μm), using the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes. Our results show a feature-rich transmission spectrum, with absorption from Na, H2O, and CO2, and wavelength-dependent scattering from small-particle condensates. We ran two types of atmospheric retrieval models: one enforcing chemical equilibrium, and the other which fit the abundances freely. Our retrieved abundances at chemical equilibrium for Na, O and C are all super-solar, with abundances relative to solar values of 9+15−6⁠, 16+7−5⁠, and 26+12−9 respectively. Despite giving conflicting C/O ratios, both retrievals gave super-solar CO2 volume mixing ratios, which adds to the likelihood that WASP-127b’s bulk metallicity is super-solar, since CO2 abundance is highly sensitive to atmospheric metallicity. We detect water at a significance of 13.7 σ. Our detection of Na is in agreement with previous ground-based detections, though we find a much lower abundance, and we also do not find evidence for Li or K despite increased sensitivity. In the future, spectroscopy with JWST will be able to constrain WASP-127b’s C/O ratio, and may reveal the formation history of this metal-enriched, highly observable exoplanet

The energy–diversity relationship of complex bacterial communities in Arctic deep-sea sediments

The availability of nutrients and energy is a main driver of biodiversity for plant and animal communities in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but we are only beginning to understand whether and how energy–diversity relationships may be extended to complex natural bacterial communities. Here, we analyzed the link between phytodetritus input, diversity and activity of bacterial communities of the Siberian continental margin (37–3427 m water depth). Community structure and functions, such as enzymatic activity, oxygen consumption and carbon remineralization rates, were highly related to each other, and with energy availability. Bacterial richness substantially increased with increasing sediment pigment content, suggesting a positive energy–diversity relationship in oligotrophic regions. Richness leveled off, forming a plateau, when mesotrophic sites were included, suggesting that bacterial communities and other benthic fauna may be structured by similar mechanisms. Dominant bacterial taxa showed strong positive or negative relationships with phytodetritus input and allowed us to identify candidate bioindicator taxa. Contrasting responses of individual taxa to changes in phytodetritus input also suggest varying ecological strategies among bacterial groups along the energy gradient. Our results imply that environmental changes affecting primary productivity and particle export from the surface ocean will not only affect bacterial community structure but also bacterial functions in Arctic deep-sea sediment, and that sediment bacterial communities can record shifts in the whole ocean ecosystem functioning

Mouse models of cancers: opportunities to address heterogeneity of human cancer and evaluate therapeutic strategies

The heterogeneity of human breast cancer has been well described at the morphological, molecular, and genomic levels. This heterogeneity presents one of the greatest obstacles in the effective treatment of breast cancer since the distinct forms of breast cancer that reflect distinct mechanisms of disease will require distinct therapies. Although mouse models of cancer have traditionally been used to simplify the study of human disease, we suggest that there are opportunities to also model the complexity and heterogeneity of human cancer. Here, we illustrate the similarities of mouse models to the human condition in the heterogeneity of both pathologies and gene expression. We then provide an illustration of the potential of gene expression analysis methods when used in conjunction with current treatment options to model individualized therapeutic regimes

MyD88 Is Required for Protection from Lethal Infection with a Mouse-Adapted SARS-CoV

A novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV, emerged suddenly in 2003, causing approximately 8000 human cases and more than 700 deaths worldwide. Since most animal models fail to faithfully recapitulate the clinical course of SARS-CoV in humans, the virus and host factors that mediate disease pathogenesis remain unclear. Recently, our laboratory and others developed a recombinant mouse-adapted SARS-CoV (rMA15) that was lethal in BALB/c mice. In contrast, intranasal infection of young 10-week-old C57BL/6 mice with rMA15 results in a nonlethal infection characterized by high titer replication within the lungs, lung inflammation, destruction of lung tissue, and loss of body weight, thus providing a useful model to identify host mediators of protection. Here, we report that mice deficient in MyD88 (MyD88−/−), an adapter protein that mediates Toll-like receptor (TLR), IL-1R, and IL-18R signaling, are far more susceptible to rMA15 infection. The genetic absence of MyD88 resulted in enhanced pulmonary pathology and greater than 90% mortality by day 6 post-infection. MyD88−/− mice had significantly higher viral loads in lung tissue throughout the course of infection. Despite increased viral loads, the expression of multiple proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines within lung tissue and recruitment of inflammatory monocytes/macrophages to the lung was severely impaired in MyD88−/− mice compared to wild-type mice. Furthermore, mice deficient in chemokine receptors that contribute to monocyte recruitment to the lung were more susceptible to rMA15-induced disease and exhibited severe lung pathology similar to that seen in MyD88−/−mice. These data suggest that MyD88-mediated innate immune signaling and inflammatory cell recruitment to the lung are required for protection from lethal rMA15 infection