Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Prostacyclin reverses platelet stress fibre formation causing platelet aggregate instability

Prostacyclin (PGI2) modulates platelet activation to regulate haemostasis. Evidence has emerged to suggest that thrombi are dynamic structures with distinct areas of differing platelet activation. It was hypothesised that PGI2 could reverse platelet spreading by actin cytoskeletal modulation, leading to reduced capability of platelet aggregates to withstand a high shear environment. Our data demonstrates that post-flow of PGI2 over activated and spread platelets on fibrinogen, identified a significant reduction in platelet surface area under high shear. Exploration of the molecular mechanisms underpinning this effect revealed that PGI2 reversed stress fibre formation in adherent platelets, reduced platelet spreading, whilst simultaneously promoting actin nodule formation. The effects of PGI2 on stress fibres were mimicked by the adenylyl cyclase activator forskolin and prevented by inhibitors of protein kinase A (PKA). Stress fibre formation is a RhoA dependent process and we found that treatment of adherent platelets with PGI2 caused inhibitory phosphorylation of RhoA, reduced RhoA GTP-loading and reversal of myosin light chain phosphorylation. Phospho-RhoA was localised in actin nodules with PKA type II and a number of other phosphorylated PKA substrates. This study demonstrates that PGI2 can reverse key platelet functions after their initial activation and identifies a novel mechanism for controlling thrombosis

Tumor markers in breast cancer - European Group on Tumor Markers recommendations

Recommendations are presented for the routine clinical use of serum and tissue-based markers in the diagnosis and management of patients with breast cancer. Their low sensitivity and specificity preclude the use of serum markers such as the MUC-1 mucin glycoproteins ( CA 15.3, BR 27.29) and carcinoembryonic antigen in the diagnosis of early breast cancer. However, serial measurement of these markers can result in the early detection of recurrent disease as well as indicate the efficacy of therapy. Of the tissue-based markers, measurement of estrogen and progesterone receptors is mandatory in the selection of patients for treatment with hormone therapy, while HER-2 is essential in selecting patients with advanced breast cancer for treatment with Herceptin ( trastuzumab). Urokinase plasminogen activator and plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 are recently validated prognostic markers for lymph node-negative breast cancer patients and thus may be of value in selecting node-negative patients that do not require adjuvant chemotherapy. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

The South, the suburbs, and the Vatican too: explaining partisan change among Catholics

This paper explains changes in partisanship among Catholics in the last quarter of the 20th Century using a theory of partisan change centered on the contexts in which Catholics lived. Catholics were part of the post-New Deal Democratic coalition, but they have become a swing demographic group. We argue that these changes in partisanship are best explained by changes in elite messages that are filtered through an individual’s social network. Those Catholics who lived or moved into the increasingly Republican suburbs and South were the Catholics who were most likely to adopt a non-Democratic partisan identity. Changes in context better explain Catholic partisanship than party abortion policy post Roe v. Wade or ideological sorting. We demonstrate evidence in support of our argument using the ANES cumulative file from 1972 through 2000

Effects of butter from mountain-pasture grazing cows on risk markers of the metabolic syndrome compared with conventional Danish butter: a randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interest in dairy products from low-input systems, such as mountain-pasture grazing cows, because these products are believed to be healthier than products from high-input conventional systems. This may be due to a higher content of bioactive components, such as phytanic acid, a PPAR-agonist derived from chlorophyll. However, the effects of such products on human health have been poorly investigated. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of milk-fat from mountain-pasture grazing cows (G) and conventionally fed cows (C) on risk markers of the metabolic syndrome. DESIGN: In a double-blind, randomized, 12-week, parallel intervention study, 38 healthy subjects replaced part of their habitual dietary fat intake with 39 g fat from test butter made from milk from mountain-pasture grazing cows or from cows fed conventional winter fodder. Glucose-tolerance and circulating risk markers were analysed before and after the intervention. RESULTS: No differences in blood lipids, lipoproteins, hsCRP, insulin, glucose or glucose-tolerance were observed. Interestingly, strong correlations between phytanic acid at baseline and total (P<0.0001) and LDL cholesterol (P=0.0001) were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of effects on blood lipids and inflammation indicates that dairy products from mountain-pasture grazing cows are not healthier than products from high-input conventional systems. Considering the strong correlation between LDL cholesterol and phytanic acid at baseline, it may be suggested that phytanic acid increases total and LDL cholesterol. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT0134358

Predictors of problem drinking in adolescence and young adulthood. A longitudinal twin-family study

We examined drinking behavior of parents, siblings, and friends of twins as predictors of adolescent and young adult problem drinking over a period of 2 and a period of 7 years. Data of 12 to 30-year-old twins and their family members from the Netherlands Twin Register were analyzed. Problem drinking in twins was assessed in 1995 and 2000 and was defined based on the CAGE and amount of drinking. Data on alcohol use of parents, siblings and friends were collected in 1993. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to examine the short-term (1993-1995; n = 2,994) and the long-term longitudinal predictors (1993-2000; n = 1,796) of problem drinking. Age, sex and own alcohol use in 1993 explained 25% of the variance in adolescent and young adult problem drinking. Moreover, adolescents and young adults with fathers who drank frequently and with a large numbers of drinking friends, were at the highest risk for problem drinking 2 years later. Over a period of 7 years the number of drinking friends was no longer a risk factor, but few times a week or daily alcohol use of fathers remained a risk factor for later problem drinking. Drinking behavior of mother and siblings did not substantially predict problem drinking. Sex and age did not moderate these effect

Do sexist mothers change more diapers? Ambivalent sexism, maternal gatekeeping and the division of childcare

This study examined the role of ambivalent sexist ideologies in the division of childcare responsibilities. It proposed maternal gatekeeping as a mediator through which hostile sexist attitudes toward men and women facilitate gendered division of childcare. A sample of 207 mothers with at least one child aged 6 years or younger completed extensive questionnaires. As hypothesized, the mother’s hostile sexist attitudes toward men and women were positively related to maternal gatekeeping tendencies. Gatekeeping, in turn, was related to the mother’s greater time investment in childcare and greater share of childcare tasks relative to the father. Finally, hostile sexist attitudes toward men and women had an indirect effect on the mother’s hours of care and relative share of childcare tasks, mediated though maternal gatekeeping. The findings underscore the importance of investigating the mechanisms through which sexist ideologies are translated into daily behaviors that help maintain a gendered social structure. They may be utilized to inform parenting interventions aimed at increasing collaborative family work and fathers’ participation

New Pharmacological Agents to Aid Smoking Cessation and Tobacco Harm Reduction: What has been Investigated and What is in the Pipeline?

A wide range of support is available to help smokers to quit and aid attempts at harm reduction, including three first-line smoking cessation medications: nicotine replacement therapy, varenicline and bupropion. Despite the efficacy of these, there is a continual need to diversify the range of medications so that the needs of tobacco users are met. This paper compares the first-line smoking cessation medications to: 1) two variants of these existing products: new galenic formulations of varenicline and novel nicotine delivery devices; and 2) twenty-four alternative products: cytisine (novel outside of central and eastern Europe), nortriptyline, other tricyclic antidepressants, electronic cigarettes, clonidine (an anxiolytic), other anxiolytics (e.g. buspirone), selective 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) reuptake inhibitors, supplements (e.g. St John’s wort), silver acetate, nicobrevin, modafinil, venlafaxine, monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOI), opioid antagonist, nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR) antagonists, glucose tablets, selective cannabinoid type 1 receptor antagonists, nicotine vaccines, drugs that affect gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transmission, drugs that affect N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDA), dopamine agonists (e.g. levodopa), pioglitazone (Actos; OMS405), noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors, and the weight management drug lorcaserin. Six criteria are used: relative efficacy, relative safety, relative cost, relative use (overall impact of effective medication use), relative scope (ability to serve new groups of patients), and relative ease of use (ESCUSE). Many of these products are in the early stages of clinical trials, however, cytisine looks most promising in having established efficacy and safety and being of low cost. Electronic cigarettes have become very popular, appear to be efficacious and are safer than smoking, but issues of continued dependence and possible harms need to be considered

Gene therapy for monogenic liver diseases: clinical successes, current challenges and future prospects

Over the last decade, pioneering liver-directed gene therapy trials for haemophilia B have achieved sustained clinical improvement after a single systemic injection of adeno-associated virus (AAV) derived vectors encoding the human factor IX cDNA. These trials demonstrate the potential of AAV technology to provide long-lasting clinical benefit in the treatment of monogenic liver disorders. Indeed, with more than ten ongoing or planned clinical trials for haemophilia A and B and dozens of trials planned for other inherited genetic/metabolic liver diseases, clinical translation is expanding rapidly. Gene therapy is likely to become an option for routine care of a subset of severe inherited genetic/metabolic liver diseases in the relatively near term. In this review, we aim to summarise the milestones in the development of gene therapy, present the different vector tools and their clinical applications for liver-directed gene therapy. AAV-derived vectors are emerging as the leading candidates for clinical translation of gene delivery to the liver. Therefore, we focus on clinical applications of AAV vectors in providing the most recent update on clinical outcomes of completed and ongoing gene therapy trials and comment on the current challenges that the field is facing for large-scale clinical translation. There is clearly an urgent need for more efficient therapies in many severe monogenic liver disorders, which will require careful risk-benefit analysis for each indication, especially in paediatrics