Ocean-atmospheric state dependence of the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.The Arctic is warming faster than the global average. This disproportionate warming – known as Arctic amplification – has caused significant local changes to the Arctic system and more uncertain remote changes across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Here, we use an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to test the sensitivity of the atmospheric and surface response to Arctic sea ice loss to the phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which varies on (multi-)decadal timescales. Four experiments are performed, combining low and high sea ice states with global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with opposite phases of the AMO. A trough-ridge-trough response to wintertime sea ice loss is seen in the PacificNorth America sector in the negative phase of the AMO. We propose that this is a consequence of an increased meridional temperature gradient in response to sea ice loss, just south of the climatological maximum, in the central midlatitude North Pacific. This causes a southward shift in the North Pacific storm track, which strengthens the Aleutian Low with circulation anomalies propagating into North America. While the climate response to sea ice loss is sensitive to AMO-related SST anomalies in the North Pacific, there is little sensitivity to larger magnitude SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. With background ocean-atmospheric states persisting for a number of years, there is the potential to improve predictions of the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on decadal timescalesThis work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/M006123/1 and NE/J019585/1. The HadGAM2 simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. For the provision of observed and reanalysis data the Met Office Hadley Centre and NOAA ESRL are thanked. Model data are available from the authors upon request

Long-term spatiotemporal stability and dynamic changes in helminth infracommunities of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in NE Poland

Parasites are considered to be an important selective force in host evolution but ecological studies of host-parasite systems are usually short-term providing only snap-shots of what may be dynamic systems. We have conducted four surveys of helminths of bank voles at three ecologically similar woodland sites in NE Poland, spaced over a period of 11 years, to assess the relative importance of temporal and spatial effects on helminth infracommunities. Some measures of infracom- munity structure maintained relative stability: the rank order of prevalence and abundance of Heligmosomum mixtum, Heligmosomoides glareoli and Mastophorus muris changed little between the four surveys. Other measures changed markedly: dynamic changes were evident in Syphacia petrusewiczi which declined to local extinction, while the capillariid Aonchotheca annulosa first appeared in 2002 and then increased in prevalence and abundance over the remaining three surveys. Some species are therefore dynamic and both introductions and extinctions can be expected in ecological time. At higher taxonomic levels and for derived measures, year and host-age effects and their interactions with site are import- ant. Our surveys emphasize that the site of capture is the major determinant of the species contributing to helminth community structure, providing some predictability in these systems

Very Cold Gas and Dark Matter

We have recently proposed a new candidate for baryonic dark matter: very cold molecular gas, in near-isothermal equilibrium with the cosmic background radiation at 2.73 K. The cold gas, of quasi-primordial abundances, is condensed in a fractal structure, resembling the hierarchical structure of the detected interstellar medium. We present some perspectives of detecting this very cold gas, either directly or indirectly. The H$_2$ molecule has an "ultrafine" structure, due to the interaction between the rotation-induced magnetic moment and the nuclear spins. But the lines fall in the km domain, and are very weak. The best opportunity might be the UV absorption of H$_2$ in front of quasars. The unexpected cold dust component, revealed by the COBE/FIRAS submillimetric results, could also be due to this very cold H$_2$ gas, through collision-induced radiation, or solid H$_2$ grains or snowflakes. The $\gamma$-ray distribution, much more radially extended than the supernovae at the origin of cosmic rays acceleration, also points towards and extended gas distribution.Comment: 16 pages, Latex pages, crckapb macro, 3 postscript figures, uuencoded compressed tar file. To be published in the proceeedings of the "Dust-Morphology" conference, Johannesburg, 22-26 January, 1996, D. Block (ed.), (Kluwer Dordrecht

A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections, applied to Chinese catchments

This is the final version. Available from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.The discussion paper version of this article was published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions and is available in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34612There is a growing desire for reliable 21st-century projections of water availability at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) are typically used together with global hydrological models (GHMs) to generate such projections. GCMs alone are unsuitable, especially if they have biased representations of aridity. The Budyko framework represents how water availability varies as a non-linear function of aridity and is used here to constrain projections of runoff from GCMs, without the need for computationally expensive GHMs. Considering a Chinese case study, we first apply the framework to observations to show that the contribution of direct human impacts (water consumption) to the significant decline in Yellow River runoff was greater than the contribution of aridity change by a factor of approximately 2, although we are unable to rule out a significant contribution from the net effect of all other factors. We then show that the Budyko framework can be used to narrow the range of Yellow River runoff projections by 34%, using a multi-model ensemble and the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. This increases confidence that the Yellow River will see an increase in runoff due to aridity change by the end of the 21st century. Yangtze River runoff projections change little, since aridity biases in GCMs are less substantial. Our approach serves as a quick and inexpensive tool to rapidly update and correct projections from GCMs alone. This could serve as a valuable resource when determining the water management policies required to alleviate water stress for future generations.Natural Environment Research CouncilUK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fun

Topologically Protected Quantum State Transfer in a Chiral Spin Liquid

Topology plays a central role in ensuring the robustness of a wide variety of physical phenomena. Notable examples range from the robust current carrying edge states associated with the quantum Hall and the quantum spin Hall effects to proposals involving topologically protected quantum memory and quantum logic operations. Here, we propose and analyze a topologically protected channel for the transfer of quantum states between remote quantum nodes. In our approach, state transfer is mediated by the edge mode of a chiral spin liquid. We demonstrate that the proposed method is intrinsically robust to realistic imperfections associated with disorder and decoherence. Possible experimental implementations and applications to the detection and characterization of spin liquid phases are discussed.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Genetic contributions to visuospatial cognition in Williams syndrome: insights from two contrasting partial deletion patients

Background Williams syndrome (WS) is a rare neurodevelopmental disorder arising from a hemizygotic deletion of approximately 27 genes on chromosome 7, at locus 7q11.23. WS is characterised by an uneven cognitive profile, with serious deficits in visuospatial tasks in comparison to relatively proficient performance in some other cognitive domains such as language and face processing. Individuals with partial genetic deletions within the WS critical region (WSCR) have provided insights into the contribution of specific genes to this complex phenotype. However, the combinatorial effects of different genes remain elusive. Methods We report on visuospatial cognition in two individuals with contrasting partial deletions in the WSCR: one female (HR), aged 11 years 9 months, with haploinsufficiency for 24 of the WS genes (up to GTF2IRD1), and one male (JB), aged 14 years 2 months, with the three most telomeric genes within the WSCR deleted, or partially deleted. Results Our in-depth phenotyping of the visuospatial domain from table-top psychometric, and small- and large-scale experimental tasks reveal a profile in HR in line with typically developing controls, albeit with some atypical features. These data are contrasted with patient JB’s atypical profile of strengths and weaknesses across the visuospatial domain, as well as with more substantial visuospatial deficits in individuals with the full WS deletion. Conclusions Our findings point to the contribution of specific genes to spatial processing difficulties associated with WS, highlighting the multifaceted nature of spatial cognition and the divergent effects of genetic deletions within the WSCR on different components of visuospatial ability. The importance of general transcription factors at the telomeric end of the WSCR, and their combinatorial effects on the WS visuospatial phenotype are also discussed

Spatial and topological organization of DNA chains induced by gene co-localization

Transcriptional activity has been shown to relate to the organization of chromosomes in the eukaryotic nucleus and in the bacterial nucleoid. In particular, highly transcribed genes, RNA polymerases and transcription factors gather into discrete spatial foci called transcription factories. However, the mechanisms underlying the formation of these foci and the resulting topological order of the chromosome remain to be elucidated. Here we consider a thermodynamic framework based on a worm-like chain model of chromosomes where sparse designated sites along the DNA are able to interact whenever they are spatially close-by. This is motivated by recurrent evidence that there exists physical interactions between genes that operate together. Three important results come out of this simple framework. First, the resulting formation of transcription foci can be viewed as a micro-phase separation of the interacting sites from the rest of the DNA. In this respect, a thermodynamic analysis suggests transcription factors to be appropriate candidates for mediating the physical interactions between genes. Next, numerical simulations of the polymer reveal a rich variety of phases that are associated with different topological orderings, each providing a way to increase the local concentrations of the interacting sites. Finally, the numerical results show that both one-dimensional clustering and periodic location of the binding sites along the DNA, which have been observed in several organisms, make the spatial co-localization of multiple families of genes particularly efficient.Comment: Figures and Supplementary Material freely available on http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.100067

Chaste: an open source C++ library for computational physiology and biology

Chaste - Cancer, Heart And Soft Tissue Environment - is an open source C++ library for the computational simulation of mathematical models developed for physiology and biology. Code development has been driven by two initial applications: cardiac electrophysiology and cancer development. A large number of cardiac electrophysiology studies have been enabled and performed, including high performance computational investigations of defibrillation on realistic human cardiac geometries. New models for the initiation and growth of tumours have been developed. In particular, cell-based simulations have provided novel insight into the role of stem cells in the colorectal crypt. Chaste is constantly evolving and is now being applied to a far wider range of problems. The code provides modules for handling common scientific computing components, such as meshes and solvers for ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs). Re-use of these components avoids the need for researchers to "re-invent the wheel" with each new project, accelerating the rate of progress in new applications. Chaste is developed using industrially-derived techniques, in particular test-driven development, to ensure code quality, re-use and reliability. In this article we provide examples that illustrate the types of problems Chaste can be used to solve, which can be run on a desktop computer. We highlight some scientific studies that have used or are using Chaste, and the insights they have provided. The source code, both for specific releases and the development version, is available to download under an open source Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) licence at http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste, together with details of a mailing list and links to documentation and tutorials

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens