A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Quantitative photoacoustic tomography using illuminations from a single direction.

Quantitative photoacoustic tomography is an emerging imaging technique aimed at estimating optical parameters inside tissues from photoacoustic images, which are formed by combining optical information and ultrasonic propagation. This optical parameter estimation problem is ill-posed and needs to be approached within the framework of inverse problems. It has been shown that, in general, estimating the spatial distribution of more than one optical parameter is a nonunique problem unless more than one illumination pattern is used. Generally, this is overcome by illuminating the target from various directions. However, in some cases, for example when thick samples are investigated, illuminating the target from different directions may not be possible. In this work, the use of spatially modulated illumination patterns at one side of the target is investigated with simulations. The results show that the spatially modulated illumination patterns from a single direction could be used to provide multiple illuminations for quantitative photoacoustic tomography. Furthermore, the results show that the approach can be used to distinguish absorption and scattering inclusions located near the surface of the target. However, when compared to a full multidirection illumination setup, the approach cannot be used to image as deep inside tissues

Direct Estimation of Optical Parameters From Photoacoustic Time Series in Quantitative Photoacoustic Tomography

Imaging methods applied to living organisms with emphasis on innovative approaches that use emerging technologies supported by rigorous physical and mathematical analysis and quantitative evaluation of performance. Membership in IEEE's technical societies provides access to top quality publications such as this one either as a member benefit or via discounted subscriptions. The lowest subscription prices for this title is available for members of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, IEEE Signal Processing, IEEE Nuclear and Plasma Sciences Society, or the IEEE Ultrasonics, Ferroelectrics, and Frequency Control Society

The Hubble Constant

Considerable progress has been made in determining the Hubble constant over the past two decades. We discuss the cosmological context and importance of an accurate measurement of the Hubble constant, and focus on six high-precision distance-determination methods: Cepheids, tip of the red giant branch, maser galaxies, surface brightness fluctuations, the Tully-Fisher relation and Type Ia supernovae. We discuss in detail known systematic errors in the measurement of galaxy distances and how to minimize them. Our best current estimate of the Hubble constant is 73 +/-2 (random) +/-4 (systematic) km/s/Mpc. The importance of improved accuracy in the Hubble constant will increase over the next decade with new missions and experiments designed to increase the precision in other cosmological parameters. We outline the steps that will be required to deliver a value of the Hubble constant to 2% systematic uncertainty and discuss the constraints on other cosmological parameters that will then be possible with such accuracy.Comment: To be published in Annual Reviews of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol. 48, 2010, consisting of 79 pages, 13 figures, 2 table

Estimation and uncertainty quantification of optical properties directly from the photoacoustic time series

Quantitative photoacoustic tomography seeks to estimate the optical parameters of a target given photoacoustic measurements as a data. Conventionally the problem is split into two steps: 1) the acoustical inverse problem of estimating the acoustic initial pressure distribution from the acoustical time series data; 2) the optical inverse problem of estimating the optical absorption and scattering from the initial pressure distributions. In this work, an approach for estimating the optical absorption and scattering directly from the acoustical time series is investigated with simulations. The work combines a homogeneous acoustical forward model, based on the Green's function solution of the wave equation, and a finite element method based diffusion approximation model of light propagation into a single forward model. This model maps the optical parameters of interest into a time domain signal. The model is used with a Bayesian approach to ill-posed inverse problems to form estimates of the posterior distributions for the parameters of interest. In addition to being able to provide point estimates of the parameters of interest, i.e. reconstruct the absorption and scattering distributions, the approach can be used to derive information on the uncertainty associated with the estimates

Anti-Allergic Cromones Inhibit Histamine and Eicosanoid Release from Activated Human and Murine Mast Cells by Releasing Annexin A1

PMCID: PMC3601088This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Simonsenia aveniformis sp nov (Bacillariophyceae), molecular phylogeny and systematics of the genus, and a new type of canal raphe system

The genus Simonsenia is reviewed and S. aveniformis described as new for science by light and electron microscopy. The new species originated from estuarine environments in southern Iberia (Atlantic coast) and was isolated into culture. In LM, Simonsenia resembles Nitzschia, with bridges (fibulae) beneath the raphe, which is marginal. It is only electron microscope (EM) examination that reveals the true structure of the raphe system, which consists of a raphe canal raised on a keel (wing), supported by rib like braces (fenestral bars) and tube-like portulae; between the portulae the keel is perforated by open windows (fenestrae). Based on the presence of portulae and a fenestrated keel, Simonsenia has been proposed to be intermediate between Bacillariaceae and Surirellaceae. However, an rbcL phylogeny revealed that Simonsenia belongs firmly in the Bacillariaceae, with which it shares a similar chloroplast arrangement, rather than in the Surirellaceae. Lack of homology between the surirelloid and simonsenioid keels is reflected in subtle differences in the morphology and ontogeny of the portulae and fenestrae. The diversity of Simonsenia has probably been underestimated, particularly in the marine environment.Polish National Science Centre in Cracow within the Maestro program [N 2012/04/A/ST10/00544]; Sciences and Technologies Foundation-FCT (Portugal) [SFRH/BD/62405/2009]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Disease progression in Plasmodium knowlesi malaria is linked to variation in invasion gene family members.

Emerging pathogens undermine initiatives to control the global health impact of infectious diseases. Zoonotic malaria is no exception. Plasmodium knowlesi, a malaria parasite of Southeast Asian macaques, has entered the human population. P. knowlesi, like Plasmodium falciparum, can reach high parasitaemia in human infections, and the World Health Organization guidelines for severe malaria list hyperparasitaemia among the measures of severe malaria in both infections. Not all patients with P. knowlesi infections develop hyperparasitaemia, and it is important to determine why. Between isolate variability in erythrocyte invasion, efficiency seems key. Here we investigate the idea that particular alleles of two P. knowlesi erythrocyte invasion genes, P. knowlesi normocyte binding protein Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb, influence parasitaemia and human disease progression. Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb reference DNA sequences were generated from five geographically and temporally distinct P. knowlesi patient isolates. Polymorphic regions of each gene (approximately 800 bp) were identified by haplotyping 147 patient isolates at each locus. Parasitaemia in the study cohort was associated with markers of disease severity including liver and renal dysfunction, haemoglobin, platelets and lactate, (r = ≥ 0.34, p =  <0.0001 for all). Seventy-five and 51 Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb haplotypes were resolved in 138 (94%) and 134 (92%) patient isolates respectively. The haplotypes formed twelve Pknbpxa and two Pknbpxb allelic groups. Patients infected with parasites with particular Pknbpxa and Pknbpxb alleles within the groups had significantly higher parasitaemia and other markers of disease severity. Our study strongly suggests that P. knowlesi invasion gene variants contribute to parasite virulence. We focused on two invasion genes, and we anticipate that additional virulent loci will be identified in pathogen genome-wide studies. The multiple sustained entries of this diverse pathogen into the human population must give cause for concern to malaria elimination strategists in the Southeast Asian region

F-Theory GUT Vacua on Compact Calabi-Yau Fourfolds

We present compact three-generation F-theory GUT models meeting in particular the constraints of D3-tadpole cancellation and D-term supersymmetry. To this end we explicitly construct elliptically fibered Calabi-Yau fourfolds as complete intersections in a toric ambient space. Toric methods enable us to control the singular geometry of the SU(5) GUT model. The GUT brane wraps a non-generic del Pezzo surface admitting GUT symmetry breaking via hypercharge flux. It is contractible to a curve and we demonstrate the existence of a consistent decoupling limit. We compute the Euler characteristic of the singular Calabi-Yau fourfold to show that our three-generation flux solutions obtained via the spectral cover construction are consistent with D3-tadpole cancellation.Comment: 22+12 pages; v2: minor clarifications on decoupling limi

Challenges of Profile Likelihood Evaluation in Multi-Dimensional SUSY Scans

Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MultiNest, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MultiNest configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MultiNest is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; minor changes following referee report. Matches version accepted by JHE