Embedded model discrepancy: A case study of Zika modeling

Mathematical models of epidemiological systems enable investigation of and predictions about potential disease outbreaks. However, commonly used models are often highly simplified representations of incredibly complex systems. Because of these simplifications, the model output, of say new cases of a disease over time, or when an epidemic will occur, may be inconsistent with available data. In this case, we must improve the model, especially if we plan to make decisions based on it that could affect human health and safety, but direct improvements are often beyond our reach. In this work, we explore this problem through a case study of the Zika outbreak in Brazil in 2016. We propose an embedded discrepancy operator---a modification to the model equations that requires modest information about the system and is calibrated by all relevant data. We show that the new enriched model demonstrates greatly increased consistency with real data. Moreover, the method is general enough to easily apply to many other mathematical models in epidemiology.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

Inexpensive anti-fog coating for windows

Coating applications include anti-fog protection for deep-sea diving equipment, fire protection helmets, and windows of vehicles used in hazardous environments. Basic coating composition includes liquid detergent, deionized water, and oxygen compatible fire-resistant oil. Composition prevents visor fogging under maximum metabolic load for 5 hours and longer

Anti-fog composition

An anti-fog composition is described for the prevention of fogging on surfaces such as space helmet visors, spacecraft windows, and windshields. It is composed of a surface active agent, water, and an oil time extender

Summary of the electromagnetic compatibility evaluation of the proposed satellite power system

The effects of the proposed solar power satellite (SPS) operations on electronic equipment and systems by fundamental, harmonic, and intermodulation component emissions from the orbital station; and the fundamental, harmonic, and structural intermodulation emissions from the rectenna site were evaluated. The coupling and affects interactions affecting a wide spectrum of electronic equipment are considered. The primary EMC tasking areas are each discussed separately

Quahogs in Eastern North America: Part II, History by Province and State

The northern quahog, Mercenaria mercenaria, ranges along the Atlantic Coast of North America from the Canadian Maritimes to Florida, while the southern quahog, M. campechiensis, ranges mostly from Florida to southern Mexico. The northern quahog was fished by native North Americans during prehistoric periods. They used the meats as food and the shells as scrapers and as utensils. The European colonists copied the Indians treading method, and they also used short rakes for harvesting quahogs. The Indians of southern New England and Long Island, N.Y., made wampum from quahog shells, used it for ornaments and sold it to the colonists, who, in turn, traded it to other Indians for furs. During the late 1600’s, 1700’s, and 1800’s, wampum was made in small factories for eventual trading with Indians farther west for furs. The quahoging industry has provided people in many coastal communities with a means of earning a livelihood and has given consumers a tasty, wholesome food whether eaten raw, steamed, cooked in chowders, or as stuffed quahogs. More than a dozen methods and types of gear have been used in the last two centuries for harvesting quahogs. They include treading and using various types of rakes and dredges, both of which have undergone continuous improvements in design. Modern dredges are equipped with hydraulic jets and one type has an escalator to bring the quahogs continuously to the boats. In the early 1900’s, most provinces and states established regulations to conserve and maximize yields of their quahog stocks. They include a minimum size, now almost universally a 38-mm shell width, and can include gear limitations and daily quotas. The United States produces far more quahogs than either Canada or Mexico. The leading producer in Canada is Prince Edward Island. In the United States, New York, New Jersey, and Rhode Island lead in quahog production in the north, while Virginia and North Carolina lead in the south. Connecticut and Florida were large producers in the 1990’s. The State of Tabasco leads in Mexican production. In the northeastern United States, the bays with large openings, and thus large exchanges of bay waters with ocean waters, have much larger stocks of quahogs and fisheries than bays with small openings and water exchanges. Quahog stocks in certified beds have been enhanced by transplanting stocks to them from stocks in uncertified waters and by planting seed grown in hatcheries, which grew in number from Massachusetts to Florida in the 1980’s and 1990’s

A study of poultry processing plant noise control techniques

A number of techniques can be used to reduce noise in poultry processing plants. In general, covering the ceiling with a noise-absorbing medium is a practical first step. Once the reflected noise levels are abated, treatment of specific identifiable noise courses can take place. The development, flammability, and mechanical properties of acoustic panels to be vertically suspended from the ceiling are discussed as well as the covers need to comply with USDA cleanability requirements. The isolation of drive motors and pumps from large expansive areas, the muffling of pneumatic devices, and the insulation of ice chutes are methods of source quieting. Proper maintenance of machinery and vibration monitoring are also needed to reduce hearing damage risk and to improve worker productivity and employee/supervisor relations

Preliminary sonic boom correlation of predicted and measured levels for STS-1 entry

A preliminary analysis correlating peaks from sonic boom pressure signatures recorded during the descent trajectory of the Orbiter Columbia, which landed in the dry lake bed at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB), California, with measured wind tunnel signatures extrapolated from flight altitudes to the ground has been made for Mach numbers ranging from 1.3 to 6. The flight pressure signatures were recorded by microphones positioned at ground level near the groundtrack, whereas the wind tunnel signatures were measured during a test of a 0.0041-scale model Orbiter. The agreement between overpressure estimates based on wind tunnel data using preliminary flight trajectory data and oscillograph traces from ground measurements appears reasonable at this time for the range of Mach numbers considered. More detailed studies using final flight trajectory data and digitized ground measured data will be performed