Discrete population balance models of random agglomeration and cleavage in polymer pyrolysis

The processes of random agglomeration and cleavage (both of which are important for the development of new models of polymer combustion, but are also applicable in a wide range of fields including atmospheric physics, radiation modelling and astrophysics) are analysed using population balance methods. The evolution of a discrete distribution of particles is considered within this framework, resulting in a set of ordinary differential equations for the individual particle concentrations. Exact solutions for these equations are derived, together with moment generating functions. Application of the discrete Laplace transform (analogous to the Z-transform) is found to be effective in these problems, providing both exact solutions for particle concentrations and moment generating functions. The combined agglomeration-cleavage problem is also considered. Unfortunately, it has been impossible to find an exact solution for the full problem, but a stable steady state has been identified and computed

Magnetism, FeS colloids, and Origins of Life

A number of features of living systems: reversible interactions and weak bonds underlying motor-dynamics; gel-sol transitions; cellular connected fractal organization; asymmetry in interactions and organization; quantum coherent phenomena; to name some, can have a natural accounting via $physical$ interactions, which we therefore seek to incorporate by expanding the horizons of `chemistry-only' approaches to the origins of life. It is suggested that the magnetic 'face' of the minerals from the inorganic world, recognized to have played a pivotal role in initiating Life, may throw light on some of these issues. A magnetic environment in the form of rocks in the Hadean Ocean could have enabled the accretion and therefore an ordered confinement of super-paramagnetic colloids within a structured phase. A moderate H-field can help magnetic nano-particles to not only overcome thermal fluctuations but also harness them. Such controlled dynamics brings in the possibility of accessing quantum effects, which together with frustrations in magnetic ordering and hysteresis (a natural mechanism for a primitive memory) could throw light on the birth of biological information which, as Abel argues, requires a combination of order and complexity. This scenario gains strength from observations of scale-free framboidal forms of the greigite mineral, with a magnetic basis of assembly. And greigite's metabolic potential plays a key role in the mound scenario of Russell and coworkers-an expansion of which is suggested for including magnetism.Comment: 42 pages, 5 figures, to be published in A.R. Memorial volume, Ed Krishnaswami Alladi, Springer 201

The role of diet in the aetiopathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease

Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, collectively known as IBD, are chronic inflammatory disorders of the gastrointestinal tract. Although the aetiopathogenesis of IBD is largely unknown, it is widely thought that diet has a crucial role in the development and progression of IBD. Indeed, epidemiological and genetic association studies have identified a number of promising dietary and genetic risk factors for IBD. These preliminary studies have led to major interest in investigating the complex interaction between diet, host genetics, the gut microbiota and immune function in the pathogenesis of IBD. In this Review, we discuss the recent epidemiological, gene–environment interaction, microbiome and animal studies that have explored the relationship between diet and the risk of IBD. In addition, we highlight the limitations of these prior studies, in part by explaining their contradictory findings, and review future directions

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Natural Splice Variant of MHC Class I Cytoplasmic Tail Enhances Dendritic Cell-Induced CD8+ T-Cell Responses and Boosts Anti-Tumor Immunity

Dendritic cell (DC)-mediated presentation of MHC class I (MHC-I)/peptide complexes is a crucial first step in the priming of CTL responses, and the cytoplasmic tail of MHC-I plays an important role in modulating this process. Several species express a splice variant of the MHC-I tail that deletes exon 7-encoding amino acids (Δ7), including a conserved serine phosphorylation site. Previously, it has been shown that Δ7 MHC-I molecules demonstrate extended DC surface half-lives, and that mice expressing Δ7-Kb generate significantly augmented CTL responses to viral challenge. Herein, we show that Δ7-Db-expressing DCs stimulated significantly more proliferation and much higher cytokine secretion by melanoma antigen-specific (Pmel-1) T cells. Moreover, in combination with adoptive Pmel-1 T-cell transfer, Δ7-Db DCs were superior to WT-Db DCs at stimulating anti-tumor responses against established B16 melanoma tumors, significantly extending mouse survival. Human DCs engineered to express Δ7-HLA-A*0201 showed similarly enhanced CTL stimulatory capacity. Further studies demonstrated impaired lateral membrane movement and clustering of human Δ7-MHC-I/peptide complexes, resulting in significantly increased bioavailability of MHC-I/peptide complexes for specific CD8+ T cells. Collectively, these data suggest that targeting exon 7-encoded MHC-I cytoplasmic determinants in DC vaccines has the potential to increase CD8+ T-cell stimulatory capacity and substantially improve their clinical efficacy

Cardiovascular risk charts for 182 countries: application of laboratory-based and office-based risk scores to global populations

Background: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on risk is an effective strategy for prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Worldwide implementation of risk-based CVD prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country, and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements; and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease. Methods: We used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included smoking, blood pressure, diabetes and total cholesterol. In the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with body mass index. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age-group in each country using average risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys to estimate proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk in an illustrative subset of 10 countries. We estimated proportion of men and women who were similarly categorized as high-risk or low-risk by the two risk scores. Findings: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were lower in high-income countries than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with the highest risks in countries in Central and Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. In the national health surveys, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high-risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 41% for Czech men in high-income countries using ≥10% risk to define high-risk, and from 2% in Uganda to 13% in Iranian men in LMICs using a ≥20% risk threshold. More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low- or high-risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among diabetes patients. Interpretation: Our risk charts address a major technical bottleneck for worldwide implementation of risk-based CVD prevention by providing risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country, and by making the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements

A Serum Factor Induces Insulin-Independent Translocation of GLUT4 to the Cell Surface which Is Maintained in Insulin Resistance

In response to insulin, glucose transporter GLUT4 translocates from intracellular compartments towards the plasma membrane where it enhances cellular glucose uptake. Here, we show that sera from various species contain a factor that dose-dependently induces GLUT4 translocation and glucose uptake in 3T3-L1 adipocytes, human adipocytes, myoblasts and myotubes. Notably, the effect of this factor on GLUT4 is fully maintained in insulin-resistant cells. Our studies demonstrate that the serum-induced increase in cell surface GLUT4 levels is not due to inhibition of its internalization and is not mediated by insulin, PDGF, IGF-1, or HGF. Similarly to insulin, serum also augments cell surface levels of GLUT1 and TfR. Remarkably, the acute effect of serum on GLUT4 is largely additive to that of insulin, while it also sensitizes the cells to insulin. In accordance with these findings, serum does not appear to activate the same repertoire of downstream signaling molecules that are implicated in insulin-induced GLUT4 translocation. We conclude that in addition to insulin, at least one other biological proteinaceous factor exists that contributes to GLUT4 regulation and still functions in insulin resistance. The challenge now is to identify this factor

Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. Methods: Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. Findings: Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. Interpretation: No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation