Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Assessing mechanical integrity of spinal fusion by in situ endochondral osteoinduction in the murine model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Historically, radiographs, micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) exams, palpation and histology have been used to assess fusions in a mouse spine. The objective of this study was to develop a faster, cheaper, reproducible test to directly quantify the mechanical integrity of spinal fusions in mice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fusions were induced in ten mice spine using a previously described technique of in situ endochondral ossification, harvested with soft tissue, and cast in radiolucent alginate material for handling. Using a validated software package and a customized mechanical apparatus that flexed and extended the spinal column, the amount of intervertebral motion between adjacent vertebral discs was determined with static flexed and extended lateral spine radiographs. Micro-CT images of the same were also blindly reviewed for fusion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean intervertebral motion between control, non-fused, spinal vertebral discs was 6.1 ± 0.2° during spine flexion/extension. In fusion samples, adjacent vertebrae with less than 3.5° intervertebral motion had fusions documented by micro-CT inspection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Measuring the amount of intervertebral rotation between vertebrae during spine flexion/extension is a relatively simple, cheap (<$100), clinically relevant, and fast test for assessing the mechanical success of spinal fusion in mice that compared favorably to the standard, micro-CT.</p

Factors affecting study efficiency and item non-response in health surveys in developing countries: the Jamaica national healthy lifestyle survey

BACKGROUND: Health surveys provide important information on the burden and secular trends of risk factors and disease. Several factors including survey and item non-response can affect data quality. There are few reports on efficiency, validity and the impact of item non-response, from developing countries. This report examines factors associated with item non-response and study efficiency in a national health survey in a developing Caribbean island. METHODS: A national sample of participants aged 15–74 years was selected in a multi-stage sampling design accounting for 4 health regions and 14 parishes using enumeration districts as primary sampling units. Means and proportions of the variables of interest were compared between various categories. Non-response was defined as failure to provide an analyzable response. Linear and logistic regression models accounting for sample design and post-stratification weighting were used to identify independent correlates of recruitment efficiency and item non-response. RESULTS: We recruited 2012 15–74 year-olds (66.2% females) at a response rate of 87.6% with significant variation between regions (80.9% to 97.6%; p < 0.0001). Females outnumbered males in all parishes. The majority of subjects were recruited in a single visit, 39.1% required multiple visits varying significantly by region (27.0% to 49.8% [p < 0.0001]). Average interview time was 44.3 minutes with no variation between health regions, urban-rural residence, educational level, gender and SES; but increased significantly with older age category from 42.9 minutes in the youngest to 46.0 minutes in the oldest age category. Between 15.8% and 26.8% of persons did not provide responses for the number of sexual partners in the last year. Women and urban residents provided less data than their counterparts. Highest item non-response related to income at 30% with no gender difference but independently related to educational level, employment status, age group and health region. Characteristics of non-responders vary with types of questions. CONCLUSION: Informative health surveys are possible in developing countries. While survey response rates may be satisfactory, item non-response was high in respect of income and sexual practice. In contrast to developed countries, non-response to questions on income is higher and has different correlates. These findings can inform future surveys

AAV Exploits Subcellular Stress Associated with Inflammation, Endoplasmic Reticulum Expansion, and Misfolded Proteins in Models of Cystic Fibrosis

Barriers to infection act at multiple levels to prevent viruses, bacteria, and parasites from commandeering host cells for their own purposes. An intriguing hypothesis is that if a cell experiences stress, such as that elicited by inflammation, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) expansion, or misfolded proteins, then subcellular barriers will be less effective at preventing viral infection. Here we have used models of cystic fibrosis (CF) to test whether subcellular stress increases susceptibility to adeno-associated virus (AAV) infection. In human airway epithelium cultured at an air/liquid interface, physiological conditions of subcellular stress and ER expansion were mimicked using supernatant from mucopurulent material derived from CF lungs. Using this inflammatory stimulus to recapitulate stress found in diseased airways, we demonstrated that AAV infection was significantly enhanced. Since over 90% of CF cases are associated with a misfolded variant of Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator (ΔF508-CFTR), we then explored whether the presence of misfolded proteins could independently increase susceptibility to AAV infection. In these models, AAV was an order of magnitude more efficient at transducing cells expressing ΔF508-CFTR than in cells expressing wild-type CFTR. Rescue of misfolded ΔF508-CFTR under low temperature conditions restored viral transduction efficiency to that demonstrated in controls, suggesting effects related to protein misfolding were responsible for increasing susceptibility to infection. By testing other CFTR mutants, G551D, D572N, and 1410X, we have shown this phenomenon is common to other misfolded proteins and not related to loss of CFTR activity. The presence of misfolded proteins did not affect cell surface attachment of virus or influence expression levels from promoter transgene cassettes in plasmid transfection studies, indicating exploitation occurs at the level of virion trafficking or processing. Thus, we surmised that factors enlisted to process misfolded proteins such as ΔF508-CFTR in the secretory pathway also act to restrict viral infection. In line with this hypothesis, we found that AAV trafficked to the microtubule organizing center and localized near Golgi/ER transport proteins. Moreover, AAV infection efficiency could be modulated with siRNA-mediated knockdown of proteins involved in processing ΔF508-CFTR or sorting retrograde cargo from the Golgi and ER (calnexin, KDEL-R, β-COP, and PSMB3). In summary, our data support a model where AAV exploits a compromised secretory system and, importantly, underscore the gravity with which a stressed subcellular environment, under internal or external insults, can impact infection efficiency

A Chaperone Trap Contributes to the Onset of Cystic Fibrosis

Protein folding is the primary role of proteostasis network (PN) where chaperone interactions with client proteins determine the success or failure of the folding reaction in the cell. We now address how the Phe508 deletion in the NBD1 domain of the cystic fibrosis (CF) transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) protein responsible for cystic fibrosis (CF) impacts the binding of CFTR with cellular chaperones. We applied single ion reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (SRM-MS) to quantitatively characterize the stoichiometry of the heat shock proteins (Hsps) in CFTR folding intermediates in vivo and mapped the sites of interaction of the NBD1 domain of CFTR with Hsp90 in vitro. Unlike folding of WT-CFTR, we now demonstrate the presence of ΔF508-CFTR in a stalled folding intermediate in stoichiometric association with the core Hsps 40, 70 and 90, referred to as a ‘chaperone trap’. Culturing cells at 30 C resulted in correction of ΔF508-CFTR trafficking and function, restoring the sub-stoichiometric association of core Hsps observed for WT-CFTR. These results support the interpretation that ΔF508-CFTR is restricted to a chaperone-bound folding intermediate, a state that may contribute to its loss of trafficking and increased targeting for degradation. We propose that stalled folding intermediates could define a critical proteostasis pathway branch-point(s) responsible for the loss of function in misfolding diseases as observed in CF

Cells Lacking the <i>RB1</i> Tumor Suppressor Gene Are Hyperdependent on Aurora B Kinase for Survival.

Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) accounts for 15% of lung cancers and is almost always linked to inactivating RB1 and TP53 mutations. SCLC frequently responds, albeit briefly, to chemotherapy. The canonical function of the RB1 gene product RB1 is to repress the E2F transcription factor family. RB1 also plays both E2F-dependent and E2F-independent mitotic roles. We performed a synthetic lethal CRISPR/Cas9 screen in an RB1 -/- SCLC cell line that conditionally expresses RB1 to identify dependencies that are caused by RB1 loss and discovered that RB1 -/- SCLC cell lines are hyperdependent on multiple proteins linked to chromosomal segregation, including Aurora B kinase. Moreover, we show that an Aurora B kinase inhibitor is efficacious in multiple preclinical SCLC models at concentrations that are well tolerated in mice. These results suggest that RB1 loss is a predictive biomarker for sensitivity to Aurora B kinase inhibitors in SCLC and perhaps other RB1 -/- cancers. SIGNIFICANCE: SCLC is rarely associated with actionable protooncogene mutations. We did a CRISPR/Cas9-based screen that showed that RB1 -/- SCLC are hyperdependent on AURKB, likely because both genes control mitotic fidelity, and confirmed that Aurora B kinase inhibitors are efficacious against RB1 -/- SCLC tumors in mice at nontoxic doses.See related commentary by Dick and Li, p. 169.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 151