Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models

This is the author pre-print version. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.A powerful and flexible method for fitting dynamic models to missing and censored data is to use the Bayesian paradigm via data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC). This samples from the joint posterior for the parameters and missing data, but requires high memory overheads for large-scale systems. In addition, designing efficient proposal distributions for the missing data is typically challenging. Pseudo-marginal methods instead integrate across the missing data using a Monte Carlo estimate for the likelihood, generated from multiple independent simulations from the model. These techniques can avoid the high memory requirements of DA-MCMC, and under certain conditions produce the exact marginal posterior distribution for parameters. A novel method is presented for implementing importance sampling for dynamic epidemic models, by conditioning the simulations on sets of validity criteria (based on the model structure) as well as the observed data. The flexibility of these techniques is illustrated using both removal time and final size data from an outbreak of smallpox. It is shown that these approaches can circumvent the need for reversible-jump MCMC, and can allow inference in situations where DA-MCMC is impossible due to computationally infeasible likelihoods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.T. J. M. was in part supported by Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Higher Education Funding Council of England, grant number VT0105 and BBSRC grant (BB/I012192/1). J. V. R was in part supported by Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding scheme (project number DP110102893). R. D. was in part supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada’s Discovery Grants Program. A. R. C. was in part supported by National Medical Research Council (NMRC/HINIR/005/2009) and NUS Initiative to Improve Health in Asia. The authors would like to thank Andrew Conlan and Theo Kypraios for useful discussions

Direct access:how is it working?

AimThe aim of this study was to identify and survey dental hygienists and therapists working in direct access practices in the UK, obtain their views on its benefits and disadvantages, establish which treatments they provided, and what barriers they had encountered.MethodThe study used a purposive sample of GDC-registered hygienists and therapists working in practices offering direct access, identified through a ‘Google’ search. An online survey was set up through the University of Edinburgh, and no-responses followed up by post.ResultsThe initial search identified 243 individuals working in direct access practices. Where a practice listed more than one hygienist/therapist, one was randomly selected. This gave a total of 179 potential respondents. Eighty six responses were received, representing a response rate of 48%. A large majority of respondents (58, 73%) were favourable in their view of the GDC decision to allow direct access, and most thought advantages outnumbered disadvantages for patients, hygienists, therapists and dentists. There were no statistically significant differences in views between hygienists and therapists. Although direct access patients formed a small minority of their caseload for most respondents, it is estimated that on average respondents saw approximately 13 per month. Treatment was mainly restricted to periodontal work, irrespective of whether the respondent was singly or dually qualified. One third of respondents reported encountering barriers to successful practice, including issues relating to teamwork and dentists’ unfavourable attitudes. However, almost two thirds(64%) felt that direct access had enhanced their job satisfaction, and 45% felt their clinical skills had increased.DiscussionComments were mainly positive, but sometimes raised worrying issues, for example in respect to training, lack of dental nurse support and the limited availability of periodontal treatment under NHS regulations

Using the theory of planned behaviour as a process evaluation tool in randomised trials of knowledge translation strategies : A case study from UK primary care

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Smart homes and their users:a systematic analysis and key challenges

Published research on smart homes and their users is growing exponentially, yet a clear understanding of who these users are and how they might use smart home technologies is missing from a field being overwhelmingly pushed by technology developers. Through a systematic analysis of peer-reviewed literature on smart homes and their users, this paper takes stock of the dominant research themes and the linkages and disconnects between them. Key findings within each of nine themes are analysed, grouped into three: (1) views of the smart home-functional, instrumental, socio-technical; (2) users and the use of the smart home-prospective users, interactions and decisions, using technologies in the home; and (3) challenges for realising the smart home-hardware and software, design, domestication. These themes are integrated into an organising framework for future research that identifies the presence or absence of cross-cutting relationships between different understandings of smart homes and their users. The usefulness of the organising framework is illustrated in relation to two major concerns-privacy and control-that have been narrowly interpreted to date, precluding deeper insights and potential solutions. Future research on smart homes and their users can benefit by exploring and developing cross-cutting relationships between the research themes identified

Postcopulatory sexual selection

The female reproductive tract is where competition between the sperm of different males takes place, aided and abetted by the female herself. Intense postcopulatory sexual selection fosters inter-sexual conflict and drives rapid evolutionary change to generate a startling diversity of morphological, behavioural and physiological adaptations. We identify three main issues that should be resolved to advance our understanding of postcopulatory sexual selection. We need to determine the genetic basis of different male fertility traits and female traits that mediate sperm selection; identify the genes or genomic regions that control these traits; and establish the coevolutionary trajectory of sexes

The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models

We study the ability of 24 ocean atmosphere global coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to reproduce the teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African rainfall in austral summer using historical forced simulations, with a focus on the atmospheric dynamic associated with El Niño. Overestimations of summer rainfall occur over Southern Africa in all CMIP5 models. Abnormal westward extensions of ENSO patterns are a common feature of all CMIP5 models, while the warming of the Indian Ocean that happens during El Niño is not correctly reproduced. This could impact the teleconnection between ENSO and Southern African rainfall which is represented with mixed success in CMIP5 models. Large-scale anomalies of suppressed deep-convection over the tropical maritime continent and enhanced convection from the central to eastern Pacific are correctly simulated. However, regional biases occur above Africa and the Indian Ocean, particularly in the position of the deep convection anomalies associated with El Niño, which can lead to the wrong sign in rainfall anomalies in the northwest part of South Africa. From the near-surface to mid-troposphere, CMIP5 models underestimate the observed anomalous pattern of pressure occurring over Southern Africa that leads to dry conditions during El Niño years

Borrelia burgdorferi BBK32 Inhibits the Classical Pathway by Blocking Activation of the C1 Complement Complex

Citation: Garcia, B. L., Zhi, H., Wager, B., Hook, M., & Skare, J. T. (2016). Borrelia burgdorferi BBK32 Inhibits the Classical Pathway by Blocking Activation of the C1 Complement Complex. Plos Pathogens, 12(1), 28. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1005404Pathogens that traffic in blood, lymphatics, or interstitial fluids must adopt strategies to evade innate immune defenses, notably the complement system. Through recruitment of host regulators of complement to their surface, many pathogens are able to escape complement-mediated attack. The Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, produces a number of surface proteins that bind to factor H related molecules, which function as the dominant negative regulator of the alternative pathway of complement. Relatively less is known about how B. burgdorferi evades the classical pathway of complement despite the observation that some sensu lato strains are sensitive to classical pathway activation. Here we report that the borrelial lipoprotein BBK32 potently and specifically inhibits the classical pathway by binding with high affinity to the initiating C1 complex of complement. In addition, B. burgdorferi cells that produce BBK32 on their surface bind to both C1 and C1r and a serum sensitive derivative of B. burgdorferi is protected from killing via the classical pathway in a BBK32-dependent manner. Subsequent biochemical and biophysical approaches localized the anti-complement activity of BBK32 to its globular C-terminal domain. Mechanistic studies reveal that BBK32 acts by entrapping C1 in its zymogen form by binding and inhibiting the C1 subcomponent, C1r, which serves as the initiating serine protease of the classical pathway. To our knowledge this is the first report of a spirochetal protein acting as a direct inhibitor of the classical pathway and is the only example of a biomolecule capable of specifically and noncovalently inhibiting C1/C1r. By identifying a unique mode of complement evasion this study greatly enhances our understanding of how pathogens subvert and potentially manipulate host innate immune systems

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Childhood bullying, paranoid thinking, and the misappraisal of social threat: trouble at school

Background:Experiences of bullying predict the development of paranoia in school-age adolescents. While many instances of psychotic phenomena are transitory, maintained victimization can lead to increasingly distressing paranoid thinking. Furthermore, paranoid thinkers perceive threat in neutral social stimuli and are vigilant for environmental risk. Aims:The present paper investigated the association between different forms of bullying and paranoid thinking, and the extent to which school-age paranoid thinkers overestimate threat in interpersonal situations. Methods: Two hundred and thirty participants, aged between eleven and fourteen, were recruited from one secondary school in the UK. Participants completed a series of questionnaires hosted on the Bristol Online Survey tool. All data were collected in a classroom setting in quiet and standardized conditions. Results: A significant and positive relationship was found between experiences of bullying and paranoid thinking: greater severity of bullying predicted more distressing paranoid thinking. Further, paranoid thinking mediated the relationship between bullying and overestimation of threat in neutral social stimuli. Conclusion: Exposure to bullying is associated with distressing paranoid thinking and subsequent misappraisal of threat. As paranoid thinkers experience real and overestimated threat, the phenomena may persist