Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first scenario, we assume that the enforcement of the land-use reserve in Brazil remains at historically observed levels, and that abundant additional land can be readily incorporated into production. The second scenario involves implementing the same exogenous biofuel demand shock but with a different responsiveness in area expansion to price signals in Brazil, reflecting varying plausible assumptions on land availability for agricultural expansion. The third scenario, which is similar to the first scenario but with a larger increase in global ethanol demand, is run to check whether increasing volume of ethanol requires the incorporation of additional quantities of land per unit of ethanol. We find that, within Brazil, the expansion occurs mostly in the Southeast region. Additionally, total sugarcane area expansion in Brazil is higher than the increase in overall area used for agriculture. This implies that part of the sugarcane expansion displaced other crops and pasture that is not replaced, which suggests some intensification in land use. The lower land expansion elasticities in the second scenario result in a smaller expansion of area used for agricultural activities. A higher proportion of the expansion in sugarcane area occurs at the expense of pasture area, which implied land intensification of beef production. This explains the small change in commodity prices observed between the first and second scenarios. These results suggest that reducing the overall responsiveness of Brazilian agriculture may limit the land-use changes brought about by biofuel expansion, which would in turn reduce its environmental impacts in terms of land expansion. Additionally, the impacts on food prices are limited because of the ability of local producers to increase the intensity of land use in both crop (by double cropping and raising yields) and livestock production (by increasing the number of heads of cattle per hectare of pasture or stocking rate) releases area that can be used for crops. In scenario three, we find that larger ethanol volumes did not require more land per unit of ethanol. Doubling the demand for ethanol does not change the results, which indicates that the limit for intensification is beyond the 50% expansion assumed in Scenario 3. In this range, the same amount of land is incorporated into production per additional unit of ethanol.Biofuels, Brazil, land use, Land Economics/Use,

Industry-peppers harvest mechanization.

Production of peppers for deshidration (paprika) and for extraction of natural colorants is of great importance in some Mediterranean irrigation areas. In the area of Badajoz (Spain) traditional production, handling and postharvest systems are no longer feasible, although a very good quality and potential market exist for this product. All aspects of mechanized production and handling have been addressed: direct seeding and transplanting, cultivation systems and mechanical harvesting are searched to be adopted in a new production system. A study of size, shape and fruiting pattern of the new varieties was performed. A feasibility study of mechanized harvesting was also made. Results of field testing of different types of harvesters and performance of existing picking heads are presented, some of which yield a feasible solution for the growers of industry peppers in the area. The design, construction and field testing results of a new picking head based on the double-helix principle is presented

Participatory budget : more quality of democracy?

Este artigo discute a qualidade democrática do orçamento participativo a partir de um estudo empírico do orçamento participativo da região administrativa de Ceilândia, Distrito Federal, Brasil. Para isso, elabora um modelo de análise com base em seis parâmetros de qualidade da democracia, extraídos de Powell (2005), Dahl (2012a; 2012b), Diamond e Morlino (2005), Lijphart (2011) e Altman e Pérez-Liñán (2002). Trata-se de um estudo descritivo de corte transversal, com análise predominantemente qualitativa. A pesquisa foi operacionalizada por meio de triangulação de métodos: a) levantamento de campo com 412 moradores da região e 39 delegados do orçamento participativo; b) pesquisa documental; e c) entrevistas. Os resultados apontam para rupturas no processo democrático e possibilitam concluir que o orçamento participativo do Distrito Federal, naquela região, é democraticamente pouco responsivo.The article discusses the democratic quality of the participatory budgeting from an empirical study of the participatory budget administrative region of Ceilândia, Federal District, Brazil. For this, prepare an analysis model based on six democracy quality parameters extracted from Powell (2005), Dahl (2012a; 2012b), Diamond and Morlino (2005), Lijphart (2011) and Altman and Pérez-Liñán (2002). Is a descriptive cross-sectional study with predominantly qualitative analysis. The research was operationalized through triangulation of methods: a) field survey with 412 local residents and 39 delegates of the participatory budget; b) documentary research; and c) interviews. The results point to disruptions in the democratic process and make it possible to conclude that the participatory budget of the Federal District in that region is little democratically responsive

Peles e couros ovinos e caprinos : indústria e mercado.

Também disponível no CD-214 SIM

Heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems control based in the Predicted Mean Vote index

In this work a numerical model, which simulates the buildings thermal response and evaluates the indoor environment comfort, in transient conditions, is used in the application of Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems control, based in the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) index, in the energy and thermal comfort performance in a kindergarten school building, in the South of Portugal, in Winter conditions. In the control the PMV index, based in the mean air temperature, the mean air velocity, the mean air relative humidity, the mean radiant temperature, the clothing level and the activity level, are used. In the numerical simulation of the kindergarten, the 25 compartments, the 498 building main bodies and the 42 windows glasses, as well as two schools and three residential surrounding main buildings, are considered

The Impact of The European Enlargement and CAP Reforms on Agricultural Markets. Much Ado about Nothing?

We analyze the effects of the 2004 CAP reform and EU enlargement on European and world agricultural markets. We compare the results from a CAP reform only and a CAP reform plus enlargement scenarios to a no-enlargement baseline implementing Agenda 2000 CAP policies. We utilize the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's policy analysis model to simulate the effects of CAP reform and EU enlargement on production, consumption, and trade for the EU, its New Member States (NMS), and major players in world agricultural markets. The model is a partial-equilibrium model of world agricultural markets including important producer and consumer countries in world livestock and products, dairy, grains, oilseeds and products, cotton and sugar markets. Each country's commodity sectors are modeled with structural equations which incorporate all important policy parameters. With prices in most commodities in the NMS historically below EU-15 prices accession leads to substantial price increases for many commodities in the NMS. Higher prices stimulate production and dampen consumption in the NMS, and trade between the new members and the EU-15 increases. Prices in the EU-15 decrease moderately. The impact of the two reforms on world markets is negligible. The CAP reforms have their greatest impact in the EU-15 markets for meats, rice, rapeseed, and dairy products. CAP reforms without enlargement generate a small increase in world and EU commodity prices.CAP, trade reform, policy reform, enlargement, new member states, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, F1, Q17, Q18,

Application of computational fluid dynamics differential model coupled with human thermal comfort integral model in ventilated indoor spaces

In this study the coupling of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) differential and human thermal comfort (HTC) integral numerical models is developed and used. The HTC integral numerical model evaluates the thermal comfort in non-uniform environments, while the CFD differential numerical model evaluates the airflow inside the virtual chamber and around the manikins. The numerical simulation, using upper crossed ventilation and made in winter conditions, is applied inside a virtual chamber equipped with two seated manikins, one desk and two seats. In this simulation the numerical airflow values, obtained with two different computational grid discretization with one and two manikins, are compared with experimental measurements. Copyright © 2011 by IPAC'11/EPS-AG

Long-Term and Global Tradeoffs between Bio-Energy, Feed, and Food

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of corn-based ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.biofuels, corn acreage, crop prices, ethanol production, food prices, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The new automated daily mortality surveillance system

The experience reported in an earlier Eurosurveillance issue on a fast method to evaluate the impact of the 2003 heatwave on mortality in Portugal, generated a daily mortality surveillance system (VDM) that has been operating ever since jointly with the Portuguese Heat Health Watch Warning System. This work describes the VDM system and how it evolved to become an automated system operating year-round, and shows briefly its potential using mortality data from January 2006 to June 2009 collected by the system itself. The new system has important advantages such as: rapid information acquisition, completeness (the entire population is included), lightness (very little information is exchanged, date of death, age, sex, place of death registration). It allows rapid detection of impacts (within five days) and allows a quick preliminary quantification of impacts that usually took several years to be done. These characteristics make this system a powerful tool for public health action. The VDM system also represents an example of inter-institutional cooperation, bringing together organisations from two different ministries, Health and Justice, aiming at improving knowledge about the mortality in the population

Determinant Factors of Morbidity in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Introdução: O lúpus eritematoso sistémico pode apresentar uma gravidade variável. Contudo, não existem biomarcadores que preveem o curso da doença. O dano é medido pelo índice Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/Systemic Damage Index que define a gravidade e prevê o seu prognóstico. Objetivo: Avaliação dos fatores que determinam dano nos doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico. Material e Métodos: Estudo retrospetivo, monocêntrico, em doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico (≥ 4 critérios do American College of Rheumatology – 100% dos doentes, n = 76), do sexo feminino, seguidos por um período ≥ 5 anos. Início da doença, etnia, duração, número de critérios American College of Rheumatology no final do seguimento, fenótipo renal, neuropsiquiátrico (e articular, co-morbilidades e Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index -2K foram correlacionados com a presença e grau de dano medido pelo índice Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/Systemic Damage Index. A acumulação de critérios American College of Rheumatology foi objetivada num sub-grupo de doentes seguidos desde o início. A análise estatística utilizou o qui-quadrado, Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney e a correlação de Spearman (p < 0,05). Resultados: O Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Index era superior a 0 em 56,5% dos doentes. Estes doentes tinham um maior tempo de doença, um maior número de critérios American College of Rheumatology e um fenótipo neuropsiquiátrico, quando comparados com doentes sem dano (p < 0,05). Verificou-se uma correlação positiva entre o valor numérico de critérios American College of Rheumatology acumulados no final do seguimento e a atividade da doença nos últimos cinco anos (Spearman rho 0,02 e p < 0,05). Não se verificaram diferenças em relação às outras variáveis. Discussão e Conclusão: A duração da doença e o número de critérios do American College of Rheumatology acumulados conseguem prever a presença de dano. A doença neuropsiquiátrica teve impacto na morbilidade dos doentes com lúpus eritematoso sistémico, identificando um subgrupo em risco.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio