Seasonality of childhood tuberculosis cases in Kampala, Uganda, 2010-2015.

BackgroundSeasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been described, especially in children. However, few studies have assessed seasonality of TB in the equatorial region, and none in children.ObjectivesTo assess for seasonality of childhood TB cases in Kampala, Uganda, and determine the role of temperature, rainfall patterns, and influenza cases on TB diagnoses.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed demographic and clinical data of children (under 15 years) diagnosed with TB at a pediatric TB clinic in Kampala, Uganda from 2010 to 2015. We performed decomposition analysis of the monthly case time series to assess seasonality. We compared monthly mean plots and performed Poisson regression to assess any association between TB diagnoses and temperature, rainfall, and influenza.ResultsOf the 713 childhood TB cases diagnosed at the clinic, 609 (85%) were clinically diagnosed and 492 (69%) were pulmonary cases. There were minimal monthly variations in TB cases, with a trough in December and peaks in July and October, but there was no significant seasonality. Temperature variations did not show a clear pattern with TB diagnoses. Rainfall alternated with TB diagnoses in the first half of the year, but then overlapped in the second half and was significantly associated with TB diagnoses. Influenza cases were significantly related to TB diagnoses with (β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09, p = 0.01) or without (β = 0.06, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.1, p = 0.01) rainfall, and had particular overlap with pulmonary TB cases.ConclusionsSeasonal variations in childhood TB diagnoses were non-significant. Temperature did not have a clear pattern with TB diagnoses, but rainfall and influenza cases correlated with the primarily clinically diagnosed childhood TB cases

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in India: A reconciliation of Disaggregate Analysis

The present study examines whether energy consumption fuels economic growth or vice versa. The relationship is examined by using the annual data covering the period from 1970 to 2011. By employing the Granger causality test, the study empirically found that it is economic growth that fuels more demand for lignite and electricity consumption and there is growth of any energy variables that causes economic growth. In contrast, the out of sample forecasts in variance decomposition of VAR suggests that there is a bidirectional influence between electricity consumption and economic growth and lignite consumption and economic growth. Whereas a unidirectional influence from GDP growth in a natural gas consumption is found from this result. Therefore, the current study found, mixed and inconsistent results as compared to the previous studies in the Indian context. Moreover, on the basis of two econometric tools, the study with little more belief could suggest for reducing natural gas and oil consumption for boosting higher rates of economic growth in the country. Key Words: Energy, Consumption, Causality, VAR, Variance Decomposition, Economic growth and India

Debating Space Security: Capabilities and Vulnerabilities

The U.S. position in the debate on space security has been that (1) space-based systems could be developed and used to obtain decisive warghting superiority over an adversary, and (2) these space-based systems, because they might give such an inordinate advantage over any adversary, will be attacked. The Russians and Chinese, in contrast, claim to be threatened by U.S. aspirations in space but deny that they pose a serious threat to U.S. space-based systems. They view the development of advanced military space systems by the United States as evidence of a growing gap of military capabilities limited only by technological--not political--constraints. They argue that U.S. missile defense systems operating in coordination with advanced satellite sensors would weaken their nuclear retaliatory potential. This dissertation argues that the positions held by both of these parties are more extreme than warranted. An analytical evaluation quickly narrows the touted capabilities and assumed vulnerabilities of space systems to a much smaller set of concerns that can be addressed by collaboration. Chapter 2: Operationally Responsive Space (ORS): Is 24/7 Warghter Support Feasible? demonstrates the infeasibility of dramatically increasing U.S. warfighting superiority by using satellites. Chapter 3: What Can be Achieved by Attacking Satellites? makes the case that although U.S. armed forces rely extensively on its satellite infrastructure, that does not immediately make them desirable targets. The functions performed by military satellites are diffused among large constellations with redundancies. Also, some of the functions performed by these satellites can be substituted for by other terrestrial and aerial systems. Chapter 4: The Limits of Chinese Anti-Satellite Missiles demonstrates that anti-satellite (ASAT) intercepts are very complex under realistic conditions and that a potential adversary with space capabilities comparable to China's has very limited capability to use ASATs in a real-world battle scenario. Finally, in order to evaluate the chief concern raised by the Russians and Chinese, chapter 5: Satellites, Missile Defense and Space Security simulates a boost-phase missile defense system cued by the advanced Space Tracking and Surveillance (STSS) sensors. It demonstrates that even under best case assumptions, the STSS sensors are not good enough for the boost-phase missile defense system to successfully intercept and destroy an ICBM. Together, these chapters aim to narrow the contentions in the debate on space security thereby fostering the international colloboration and data sharing needed to ensure safe operations in space

The Tactical Utility and Strategic Effects of the Emerging Asian Phased Adaptive Approach Missile Defense System

The United States and Japan are jointly developing and deploying an integrated advanced regional missile defense system meant to counter threats from North Korea. North Korea possesses a large and diversified arsenal of short- and medium-range missiles that could strike Japanese cities and military bases in the event of a crisis and cause measurable damage. The missile defense system currently in place provides strong kinematic defensive coverage over Japanese territory. However, in general, the offense enjoys a strong cost advantage. It is impractical to deploy as many defensive interceptors as there are offensive missiles, which, in turn, limits the efficiency of missile defenses. It should be understood that regional missile defenses in the Asia-Pacific are neither capable nor expected to provide 100% defense. Rather, their goal is to provide sufficient capability to bolster deterrence and, should deterrence fail, to provide enough defense in the initial stages of a crisis to protect vital military assets. Additionally, U.S. and Japanese forces apparently also need to develop a better command and control architecture to operate the Asia-Pacific regional missile defense system. Finally, while the system is meant to defend only against regional threats, China has argued that the system might in the future be able to intercept Chinese ICBMs, thereby diluting its strategic deterrent against the United States. Maintaining effective defenses against North Korea while reassuring China will be one of the major challenges the U.S. and Japan face in their missile defense endeavor

Requirements and Feasibility for the Transition from a Ballistic Missile Capability to an Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Capability

Ballistic missiles and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons operate using similar technological means but not with the same level of technology or engineering maturity. ASATs require more sophisticated systems engineering and integration requirements to adapt to the challenges posed by an ASAT intercept. The main difficulties arise from the requirements for detection in space and the high closing velocities needed to execute an ASAT intercept. These difficulties have been underestimated after the recent Chinese ASAT test by those who have suggested that other nations could in the nearfuture master this technology gap and convert their primitive ballistic missile capabilities into an effective ASAT weapons capability. This report examines whether Iran could use its modest missile capability to project a viable ASAT threat to US Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. The study suggests that, even if Iran has an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), it would not be easily able to leap-frog the technology gap from a ballistic missile to an ASAT capability. Unless it develops and tests the system vigorously and visibly, Iran would not project an ASAT threat. Chapter 1 of the report analyzes the capability of the Iranian Shahab-4 missile, including the velocity attained by the missile at an altitude of 1000 kilometers. Chapter 2 provides an analysis of the total thermal energyemitted by a model satellite in the Infrared (IR) band of interest for the given ASAT characteristics. Using the total thermal energy in the IR band, the detection range from which the ASAT can lock on to the satellite is determined. Chapter 3 details both, the ideal and real-time Proportional Navigation Guidance (PNG) law simulation performed using the parameters obtained in Chapters 1 and 2. The miss distances and acceleration requirements are shown graphically to capture the nuances and limits in the capability of an ASAT based on current Iranian technology level. The conclusion explains the limits and assumptions of this analysis and scope for further work

Inflation and its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Six South Asian Countries

This study investigated the impact of inflation on economic growth and established the existence of inflation growth relationship in the context of South Asian countries. In order to examine the impact of inflation on economic growth, the study has used the time series data for the period 1980-2012. The study found that there is high positive correlation exist between inflation and economic growth for all the countries. The cointegration result suggest that there is long run relationship exist for Malaysia. However, the rest of the countries have no long run relationship between inflation and economic growth. In order to know the short run dynamics and direction of causality the study used Error Correction and Granger causality test. The study also employed unidirectional VAR analysis to know the short run dynamics between inflation and economic growth. JEL Classification: E00 and E39 Keywords: Inflation, Economic Growth, South Asia, Granger Causality, Cointegration 

Examine the Long Run Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in India: Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

This study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in India after the reform. The present study used monthly data from the period January 1994 to December 2011. The empirical result found that there exist two cointegrating equations and the Vector Error Correction Result shows that in the long run the stock market is affecting economic growth negatively but the increase of bank credit affects the economy positively. The result also found that money supply has negative impact on economic growth in the long run, whereas, tread openness has no impact on economic growth in the long run. From the policy implication point of view the study suggest that the evolution of financial sector tends to or is more likely to stimulate and promote economic growth when monetary authorities adopt liberalised and openness policies, to improve the size of the market intone with the macroeconomic stability. Keywords: Finance, Development, Cointegration, Error Correction, Economic Growth, Correlatio

HIV-associated anemia after 96 weeks on therapy: determinants across age ranges in Uganda and Zimbabwe.

Given the detrimental effects of HIV-associated anemia on morbidity, we determined factors associated with anemia after 96 weeks of antiretroviral therapy (ART) across age groups. An HIV-positive cohort (n=3,580) of children age 5-14, reproductive age adults 18-49, and older adults ≥50 from two randomized trials in Uganda and Zimbabwe were evaluated from initiation of therapy through 96 weeks. We conducted logistic and multinomial regression to evaluate common and differential determinants for anemia at 96 weeks on therapy. Prior to initiation of ART, the prevalence of anemia (age 5-11 <10.5 g/dl, 12-14 <11 g/dl, adult females <11 g/dl, adult males <12 g/dl) was 43%, which decreased to 13% at week 96 (p<0.001). Older adults had a significantly higher likelihood of anemia compared to reproductive age adults (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.44-4.70, p=0.002). Reproductive age females had a significantly higher odds of anemia compared to men at week 96 (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.92-3.40, p<0.001), and particularly a greater odds for microcytic anemia compared to males in the same age group (p=0.001). Other common factors associated with anemia included low body mass index (BMI) and microcytosis; greater increases in CD4 count to week 96 were protective. Thus, while ART significantly reduced the prevalence of anemia at 96 weeks, 13% of the population continued to be anemic. Specific groups, such as reproductive age females and older adults, have a greater odds of anemia and may guide clinicians to pursue further evaluation and management