Progress Report to the TNRC for Analysis of the Economics of Atrazine Remediation for Representative Grain Farms in the Aquilla Watershed, Hill County, Texas: Subtasks 4.0-4.4

Four alternative BMPs for atrazine remediation were reported by Harmon and Wang for the study area. The BMPs involved alternative incorporation practices, tillage operations, and sediment ponds. Harmon and Wang reported no statistical difference in corn yields under the alternative BMPs. An economic analysis of four alternative best management practices (BMPs) for atrazine remediation in Hill County, Texas, was performed by the Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) at Texas A&M University. Using the farm-level economic simulation model FLIPSIM, AFPC scientists analyzed the financial effects of the alternative BMPs on the Texas Blackland Prairie representative farm. This farm consists of 2,000 dryland acres, divided among corn (600 acres), sorghum (750 acres), wheat (250 acres), and native pasture (150 acres). This farm also maintains a small beef cowherd. Regularly updated, the AFPC maintains more than 80 farms across the nation that form the basis for probabilistic-based agricultural policy evaluation.Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

ANALYZING PEST CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR COTTON WITH AN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT MATRIX

Environmental Economics and Policy,

Financial Impacts of Regional Differences in Beef Cattle Operations

The sensitivity of net cash farm income to changes in selected production variables, output prices, and input costs varies significantly across representative U.S. beef cattle operations. Larger changes in profitability result from changes in productivity and output prices than from changes in input costs.Livestock Production/Industries,

An Analysis of Whole Farm Revenue Safety Net Options in Agriculture

Despite many years of experience, the federal government continues to seek a farm program that holds the potential for providing a politically acceptable safety net for farmers. This study demonstrates that, with the 2002 Farm Bill, AMTA, and marketing loan provisions continuing, a whole farm revenue safety net has the potential for simplifying existing farm programs, while enhancing the financial position of US farmers. There remains the need for further analysis of the impacts of the options analyzed on supply response by farmers.Agricultural and Food Policy,

American Agriculture: What We Can Expect - National Symposium on the Future of American Agriculture, University of Georgia: August 1999

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) of the Texas A&M University System is pleased to be invited to address this symposium addressing the future of U.S. agriculture. As a participant in the FAPRI consortium, AFPC monitors the economic conditions of U.S. agriculture at the farm and ranch level. To accomplish this, AFPC maintains approximately 80 crop, dairy, beef and pork representative farms throughout the nation. In the interest of time, this paper will focus only on the economic condition of the 41 feed grain/oilseeds, wheat, cotton and rice farms through the year 2002. Anyone interested in the livestock operations, or more detail on the crop farms, are directed to the AFPC web site at http://afpc1.tamu.edu. The publications included at this site provide greater detail about the process AFPC employs to develop the representative farms, their structure and their financial characteristics.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,

National Agricultural, Research, Extension, Education and Economics Advisory Board Southern Regional Listening Session - Small and Family Farms: Challenges and Needs Alcorn State University, Alcorn, Mississippi

The Agricultural and Food Policy Center’s (AFPC) primary purpose is to analyze the economic and financial impacts of alternative government policies on U.S. farming and ranching operations. This is accomplished through the maintenance of data necessary to simulate the economic and financial activities of more than 80 representative crop and livestock farms chosen from major production areas across the United States. Twenty of the 41 crop farms are located in the Southern region. A brief description of these crop farms and their location is summarized in Appendix A. The economic and financial observations reported in this paper are based on AFPC’s experience with the crop farms in the Southern region. The paper is organized into four sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms. The second section presents the crop farms in terms of total crop cash receipts and economic efficiency as measured by the ratio of total cash costs to receipts. The third section reports the economic and financial conclusions inferred by AFPC’s experience with these crop farms. The final section addresses research, education and policy implications drawn from the analysis.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Stochastic Optimization: An Application to Sub-Arctic Dairy Farming

The paper demonstrates how a deterministic farm linear programming (LP) model can be made stochastic and simulated using Solver and Simetar© in Excel©. The demonstration is conducted with an LP-model for a dairy farm for a sub arctic region of Norway. The income risks arising from variation in milk and crop yields due to winter damage in leys and pastures have been quantified for farms demonstrating low, medium and high forage yield risk. The estimated distribution of farm profit will be skewed to the left, indicating a downside risk. In the presence of risks, farmers maximize income by producing the milk quota with using surplus forage for meat production. The analysis demonstrated here may assist farmers and farm managers in improving sensitivity analysis for risky variables in farm LP models.dairy production, Northern Norway, stochastic optimization, stochastic simulation, yield risks, Livestock Production/Industries,

SOUTHERN AGRICULTURE UNDER THE 2002 FARM BILL: A REPRESENTATIVE FARMS APPROACH

The 2002 Farm Bill affects economic activity of farms and ranches in the southern United States. Using stochastic simulation techniques, key financial variables were projected for 39 representative farms and ranches in ten southern states. Results indicate 24 of 39 farms studied have more than a 40 percent likelihood of having annual cash flow deficits during the period 2002 through 2007. Results are largely consistent across commodities and between moderate and large size farms in the same geographic area.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Outlook for Texas Representative Cotton Farms

The farm level economic impacts of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 are projected for representative Texas cotton farms. The analysis was conducted over the 2001-2008 planning horizon using FLIPSIM, AFPC’s whole farm simulation model. Data to simulate farming operations in Texas’ major cotton production regions came from two sources: - Producer panel cooperation to develop economic information to describe and simulate representative cotton farms. - Projected prices, policy variables, and input inflation rates from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) August 2004 Baseline. The primary objective of the analysis is to determine cotton farms’ economic viability by region through 2008, assuming provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill. The FLIPSIM policy simulation model incorporates the historical price and production risk faced by cotton farmers. This report presents the results of the August 2004 Baseline in a risk context using selected simulated probabilities and ranges for annual net cash farm income values. The probability of a farm experiencing annual cash flow deficits and the probability of a farm losing real net worth are included as indicators of the cash flow and equity risks facing farms through the year 2008. This report is organized into six sections. The first section summarizes the process used to develop the representative farms and the key assumptions utilized for the farm level analysis. The second section summarizes the FAPRI August 2004 Baseline and the policy and price assumptions used for the representative farm analyses. The third section presents the results of the simulation analyses for cotton farms. The fourth section summarizes and compares cost of production information for the nine cotton farms. Two appendices constitute the final sections of the report. Appendix A provides tables to summarize the physical and financial characteristics for each of the representative cotton farms. Appendix B provides the names of producers, land grant faculty, and industry leaders who cooperated in the panel interview process to develop the representative farms.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

DISTRIBUTION CHOICE UNDER NULL PRIORS AND SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

Defining appropriate probability distributions for the variables in an economic model is an important and often arduous task. This paper evaluates the performance of several common probability distributions under different distributional assumptions when sample sizes are small and there is limited information about the data.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,