ARE CROP YIELDS NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED?

This paper revisits the issue of crop yield distributions using improved model specifications, estimation and testing procedures that address the methodological concerns raised in recent literature that could have invalidated previous conclusions of yield non-normality. It shows beyond reasonable doubt that some crop yield distributions are non-normal, kurtotic and right or left skewed, depending on the circumstances. A procedure to jointly estimate non-normal farm- and aggregate-level yield distributions with similar means but different variances is illustrated, and the consequences of incorrectly assuming yield normality are explored.Yield non-normality, probability distribution function models, Corn Belt yields, West Texas dryland cotton yields, Crop Production/Industries,

Illuminating Massive Black Holes With White Dwarfs: Orbital Dynamics and High Energy Transients from Tidal Interactions

White dwarfs (WDs) can be tidally disrupted only by massive black holes (MBHs) with masses less than $\sim10^5 M_\odot$. These tidal interactions feed material to the MBH well above its Eddington limit, with the potential to launch a relativistic jet. The corresponding beamed emission is a promising signpost to an otherwise quiescent MBH of relatively low mass. We show that the mass transfer history, and thus the lightcurve, are quite different when the disruptive orbit is parabolic, eccentric, or circular. The mass lost each orbit exponentiates in the eccentric-orbit case leading to the destruction of the WD after several tens of orbits. We examine the stellar dynamics of clusters surrounding MBHs to show that single-passage WD disruptions are substantially more common than repeating encounters. The $10^{49}$ erg s$^{-1}$ peak luminosity of these events makes them visible to cosmological distances. They may be detectible at rates of as many as tens per year by instruments like Swift. In fact, WD-disruption transients significantly outshine their main-sequence star counterparts, and are the most likely tidal interaction to be detected arising from MBHs with masses less than $10^5 M_\odot$. The detection or non-detection of such WD-disruption transients by Swift is, therefore, a powerful tool to constrain lower end of the MBH mass function. The emerging class of ultra-long gamma ray bursts all have peak luminosities and durations reminiscent of WD disruptions, offering a hint that WD-disruption transients may already be present in existing datasets.Comment: Revised following response from refere

PRM-RL: Long-range Robotic Navigation Tasks by Combining Reinforcement Learning and Sampling-based Planning

We present PRM-RL, a hierarchical method for long-range navigation task completion that combines sampling based path planning with reinforcement learning (RL). The RL agents learn short-range, point-to-point navigation policies that capture robot dynamics and task constraints without knowledge of the large-scale topology. Next, the sampling-based planners provide roadmaps which connect robot configurations that can be successfully navigated by the RL agent. The same RL agents are used to control the robot under the direction of the planning, enabling long-range navigation. We use the Probabilistic Roadmaps (PRMs) for the sampling-based planner. The RL agents are constructed using feature-based and deep neural net policies in continuous state and action spaces. We evaluate PRM-RL, both in simulation and on-robot, on two navigation tasks with non-trivial robot dynamics: end-to-end differential drive indoor navigation in office environments, and aerial cargo delivery in urban environments with load displacement constraints. Our results show improvement in task completion over both RL agents on their own and traditional sampling-based planners. In the indoor navigation task, PRM-RL successfully completes up to 215 m long trajectories under noisy sensor conditions, and the aerial cargo delivery completes flights over 1000 m without violating the task constraints in an environment 63 million times larger than used in training.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

Spoon-Feeding Giant Stars to Supermassive Black Holes: Episodic Mass Transfer from Evolving Stars and Their Contribution to the Quiescent Activity of Galactic Nuclei

Stars may be tidally disrupted if, in a single orbit, they are scattered too close to a supermassive black hole (SMBH). Tidal disruption events are thought to power luminous but short-lived accretion episodes that can light up otherwise quiescent SMBHs in transient flares. Here we explore a more gradual process of tidal stripping where stars approach the tidal disruption radius by stellar evolution while in an eccentric orbit. After the onset of mass transfer, these stars episodically transfer mass to the SMBH every pericenter passage giving rise to low-level flares that repeat on the orbital timescale. Giant stars, in particular, will exhibit a runaway response to mass loss and "spoon-feed" material to the black hole for tens to hundreds of orbital periods. In contrast to full tidal disruption events, the duty cycle of this feeding mode is of order unity for black holes with mass greater than approximately 10 million solar masses. This mode of quasi-steady SMBH feeding is competitive with indirect SMBH feeding through stellar winds, and spoon-fed giant stars may play a significant role in determining the quiescent luminosity of local SMBHs.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure