The pitch rather than the pit: investor inattention during FIFA world cup matches

At the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa, many soccer matches were played during stock market trading hours, providing us with a natural experiment to analyze fluctuations in investor attention. Using minute-by-minute trading data for fifteen international stock exchanges, we present three key findings. First, when the national team was playing, the number of trades dropped by 45%, while volumes were 55% lower. Second, market activity was influenced by match events. For instance, a goal caused an additional drop in trading activity by 5%. The magnitude of this reduction resembles what is observed during lunchtime, and as such might not be indicative for shifts in attention. However, our third finding is that the comovement between national and global stock market returns decreased by over 20% during World Cup matches, whereas no comparable decoupling can be found during lunchtime. We conclude that stock markets were following developments on the soccer pitch rather than in the trading pit, leading to a changed price formation process. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15.Investor inattention, stock markets, trading volume, high-frequency data, soccer.

Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper studies the reaction of the mean and volatility of the euro-dollar exchange rate to statements of ECB officials during the first years of EMU. We focus on statements on monetary policy and the (potential) strength of the euro. We find that the Bundesbank has dominated the news coverage. We conclude that ECB statements have mainly influenced volatility. In some cases there are effects of statements on the level of the euro-dollar rate. Efforts to ‘talk up’ the euro have not been successful. There is also evidence of asymmetric reactions to news.ECB, euro, foreign exchange, news approach

The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?

Using daily data on inflation-indexed bonds, we find evidence of a negative relationship between ECB communication regarding risks to price stability - measured on the basis of the frequency and strength of the keyword ‘vigilance’ - and changes in euro area break-even inflation. However, this result is only found for the second half of 2005. At that time, the start of a tightening of ECB monetary policy was increasingly likely. This suggests that communication should be closely in line with policy actions before it can be effective. Still, we also find that the economic significance of this type of communication has been small.central bank communication, ECB, inflation expectations

Is a word to the wise indeed enough? ECB statements and the predictability of interest rate decisions

We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor rule models. During the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union, comments by ECB Executive Board members and high-level Bundesbank policy-makers were more informative than comments by national central bank presidents. We also find that differences of opinion were informative when they concerned the outlook for economic growth. Finally, our results suggest that the ECB used communication especially to signal interest rate increasescentral bank communication, ECB, interest rate decisions

Eigenstate thermalization and quantum chaos in the Holstein polaron model

The eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (ETH) is a successful theory that provides sufficient criteria for ergodicity in quantum many-body systems. Most studies were carried out for Hamiltonians relevant for ultracold quantum gases and single-component systems of spins, fermions, or bosons. The paradigmatic example for thermalization in solid-state physics are phonons serving as a bath for electrons. This situation is often viewed from an open-quantum system perspective. Here, we ask whether a minimal microscopic model for electron-phonon coupling is quantum chaotic and whether it obeys ETH, if viewed as a closed quantum system. Using exact diagonalization, we address this question in the framework of the Holstein polaron model. Even though the model describes only a single itinerant electron, whose coupling to dispersionless phonons is the only integrability-breaking term, we find that the spectral statistics and the structure of Hamiltonian eigenstates exhibit essential properties of the corresponding random-matrix ensemble. Moreover, we verify the ETH ansatz both for diagonal and offdiagonal matrix elements of typical phonon and electron observables, and show that the ratio of their variances equals the value predicted from random-matrix theory.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, as publishe

The End of the Stability and Growth Pact?

This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice for so-called soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the state level in the United States. It is also examined whether big and small countries are likely to adhere to fiscal policy rules in place. Furthermore, the impact of the business cycle on fiscal policy outcomes is analysed. Finally, the proposals of the European Commission to strengthen the Pact are discussed.Stability and Growth Pact, EMU, budget discipline

The end of stability and growth pact?

This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice for so-called soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the state level in the United States. It is also examined whether big and small countries are likely to adhere to fiscal policy rules in place. Furthermore, the impact of the business cycle on fiscal policy outcomes is analysed. Finally, the proposals of the European Commission to strengthen the Pact are discussed. --stability and growth pact,EMU,budget discipline

Het belang van intrinsieke motivatie en vasthoudendheid:op zoek naar praktische aanknopingspunten voor de studiekeuzecheck

The check on study choice ('studiekeuzecheck', introduced in 2014) provides enrolling students the possibility to receive extra advice and reconsidering their choice between 1st of May and 1st of September. The studiekeuzecheck is supposed to improve students' information and motivation levels at the start of their study in higher vocational education, implying a better match with secondary education. A a result, student should drop out and switch less. In this article, the factors playing a role in the study choice

Copy Debts? : Towards a cultural model for researchers' accountability in an age of web democracy

The highly standardized oral narrative about Sunjata, nowadays known as the Sunjata Epic, has been governing society since--at least--the fourteenth century when Arab travel writer Ibn Battuta on a trip along the Niger River reported a Sunjata tradition. This epic tells about the foundation of society--called "Mali" or "Mande"--and expresses values that go beyond the borders of countries: it explains the relationships among clans. It also prescribes how, based on patronymics and clan-related praise songs, every person should behave in public. The epic is also now much esteemed as Mali and Guinea's medieval history and as a national and supranational charter, maintaining prominence both in the mass media and in educational programs (cf. Bulman 2004; Adejunmobi 2011). The name "Mali" itself, which in 1960 became the official designation for the territory, is definitely the most striking example of this heightened status of the Sunjata Epic.Quotation marks removed from title to ensure alphabetical order. Different as follows; "Copy Debts"? : Towards a cultural model for researchers' accountability in an age of web democrac

Look Who’s Talking: ECB Communication during the First Years of EMU

This paper studies ECB and Bundesbank communication on monetary policy during the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. We study whether statements by different (groups of) central bankers have been contradictory and whether differences have diminished over time. We find that statements on the interest rate, inflation and economic growth have indeed been contradictory. Furthermore, national central banks continue to dominate communication on monetary policy. Finally, only the ECB Executive Board has observed radio silence before ECB Governing Council meetings. A positive conclusion is that, over time, interest rate statements have become less contradictory.central bank communication, European Central Bank, Bundesbank