Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market

This article begins with a brief examination of the Canadian mortgage market, focusing on the market’s evolution following changes to the Bank Act in 1992, which allowed chartered banks to enter the trust business, and the subsequent entrance of virtual banks and mortgage brokers. It then summarizes key research currently being undertaken by the Bank of Canada. This research suggests that the mortgage rates paid by borrowers depend on their observable characteristics, their local market, and their bargaining ability. Results also imply that mortgage-rate discounting affects the speed and amount of pass-through of changes in the central bank’s policy rate to mortgage rates. Findings also suggest that bank mergers can lead to asymmetric effects on mortgage rates.

Size Matters: Covariance Matrix Estimation Under the Alternative

The purpose of this paper is to investigate, using Monte Carlo methods, whether or not Hall's (2000) centered test of overidentifying restrictions for parameters estimated by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is more powerful, once the test is size-adjusted, than the standard test introduced by Hansen (1982). The Monte Carlo evidence shows that very little size-adjusted power is gained over the standard uncentered calculation. Empirical examples using Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences demonstrate that the centered and uncentered tests sometimes lead to different conclusions about model specification.Size, Power, GMM, Overidentifying restrictions

Efficiency and Competition in Canadian Banking

Allen and Engert report on recent research at the Bank of Canada on various aspects of efficiency in the Canadian banking industry. This research suggests that, overall, Canadian banks appear to be relatively efficient producers of financial services and they do not exercise monopoly or collusive-oligopoly power. The authors note the value of continuing to investigate opportunities to improve efficiency and competition in financial services in Canada.

Price Movements in the Canadian Residential Mortgage Market

The authors empirically analyze the price-setting behaviour of the major Canadian banks in the residential mortgage market over the period 1991–2007. They use weekly posted prices of the major mortgage providers to study the degree of competition in mortgage price setting. Their results suggest that the residential mortgage market is imperfectly competitive. They find distinct price leaders and that, as market concentration increases, so does price dispersion - helped by the increased use of discounting from posted prices. The authors also find that, although banks' pass-through of input price changes to mortgage prices is complete in the long run under reasonable assumptions regarding discounting, there exists some level of pricing asymmetry in the short run.Financial Financial institutions; Financial services

Bank Loans for Private and Public Firms in a Credit Crunch

Banks reliance on short-term funding has increased over time. While an effective source of financing in good times, the 2007 financial crisis has exposed the vulnerability of banks and ultimately firms to such a liability structure. The authors show that banks that relied most on wholesale funding were the ones to contract its lending the most during the crisis. Their results suggest that banks propagate liquidity shocks by reducing credit only to a certain type of borrower. Importantly, in the financial crisis banks passed the liquidity shock only to public firms. Furthermore, long-term relationships between firms and banks played an important role during the crisis. Public firms with weak banking relationships pre-crisis experienced a greater credit crunch than other public borrowers.Financial institutions

Are Canadian Banks Efficient? A Canada--U.S. Comparison

The authors compare the efficiency of Canada's largest banks with U.S. commercial banks over the past 20 years. Efficiency is measured in three ways. First, the authors study key performance ratios, and find that Canadian banks are as productive as U.S. banks. Second, they investigate whether there are economies of scale in the production functions of Canadian banks and broadly comparable U.S. bank-holding companies (BHCs). They find larger economies of scale for Canadian banks than for the U.S. BHCs, which suggests that Canadian banks are less efficient in terms of scale, and have more to gain in terms of efficiency benefits from becoming larger. Third, the authors measure cost-inefficiency in Canadian banks and in U.S. BHCs relative to the domestic efficient frontier in each country (the domestic best-practice institution). They find that Canadian banks are closer to the domestic efficient frontier than are the U.S. BHCs. Canadian banks have also moved closer to the domestic efficient frontier than have the U.S. BHCs over time. Finally, the authors examine the dispersion in cost-inefficiency found in Canadian banks and attribute some of the dispersion to differences in information and communication technology investment. Comparisons are made with the U.S. BHC experience.Financial institutions

Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation

The authors provide a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. They examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1981 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables. The results suggest that city house prices are only weakly correlated in the long run, and that there is a disconnect between house prices and interest rates. City-specific variables such as union wage levels, new-housing prices, and the issuance of building permits tend to be positively related to city existing-house prices. Surprisingly, there is mixed evidence with respect to standard measures of economic activity, such as labour force and per capita GDP.Regional economic developments

Discounting in Mortgage Markets

This paper studies discounting in mortgage markets. Using transaction-level data on Canadian mortgages, we document that over time there’s been an increase in the average discount, along with substantial dispersion. The standard explanation for dispersion in credit markets is that lenders engage in risk-based pricing. Our setting is unique since contracts are guaranteed by government-backed insurance, meaning risk cannot be the main driver of dispersion. We find that mortgage rates depend on individual, contractual, and shopping market characteristics. There is also an important amount of unobserved heterogeneity in rates, which could be attributed to search costs.Financial institutions; Financial services

Empirical Likelihood Block Bootstrapping

Monte Carlo evidence has made it clear that asymptotic tests based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation have disappointing size. The problem is exacerbated when the moment conditions are serially correlated. Several block bootstrap techniques have been proposed to correct the problem, including Hall and Horowitz (1996) and Inoue and Shintani (2006). We propose an empirical likelihood block bootstrap procedure to improve inference where models are characterized by nonlinear moment conditions that are serially correlated of possibly infinite order. Combining the ideas of Kitamura (1997) and Brown and Newey (2002), the parameters of a model are initially estimated by GMM which are then used to compute the empirical likelihood probability weights of the blocks of moment conditions. The probability weights serve as the multinomial distribution used in resampling. The first-order asymptotic validity of the proposed procedure is proven, and a series of Monte Carlo experiments show it may improve test sizes over conventional block bootstrapping.generalized methods of moments, empirical likelihood, block bootstrap

Empirical Likelihood Block Bootstrapping

Monte Carlo evidence has made it clear that asymptotic tests based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation have disappointing size. The problem is exacerbated when the moment conditions are serially correlated. Several block bootstrap techniques have been proposed to correct the problem, including Hall and Horowitz (1996) and Inoue and Shintani (2006). We propose an empirical likelihood block bootstrap procedure to improve inference where models are characterized by nonlinear moment conditions that are serially correlated of possibly infinite order. Combining the ideas of Kitamura (1997) and Brown and Newey (2002), the parameters of a model are initially estimated by GMM which are then used to compute the empirical likelihood probability weights of the blocks of moment conditions. The probability weights serve as the multinomial distribution used in resampling. The first-order asymptotic validity of the proposed procedure is proven, and a series of Monte Carlo experiments show it may improve test sizes over conventional block bootstrapping.Econometric and statistical methods