Income, Value and Returns in Socially Responsible Office Properties

This paper compares alternative methods for taking spatial dependence into account in house price prediction. We select hedonic methods that have been reported in the literature to perform relatively well in terms of ex-sample prediction accuracy. Because differences in performance may be due to differences in data, we compare the methods using a single data set. The estimation methods include simple OLS, a two-stage process incorporating nearest neighbors’ residuals in the second stage, geostatistical, and trend surface models. These models take into account submarkets by adding dummy variables or by estimating separate equations for each submarket. Based on data for approximately 13,000 transactions from Louisville, Kentucky, we conclude that a geostatistical model with disaggregated submarket variables performs best.

Business Enterprise Value in Shopping Malls: An Empirical Test

This paper discusses the economic basis for the existence of business enterprise value in a shopping mall. The existence of business enterprise value in a mall is then tested by examining the rent paid by existing tenants on a lease renewal vs. that paid by new tenants for otherwise identical space. The hypothesis that there is no difference in rents between renewals and new tenants can be rejected. This suggests that with each lease renewal there is a marginal increase in business enterprise value component of the rents. Proposed federal regulations for the appraisal of federally related transactions, the uniform standards of professional appraisal practice, and real property tax law call for separation of the value of intangibles (which include business value) from tangible personal property and from real property. Thus the business value portion of the mall rental should not be capitalized into the value of the real estate. Because income from lease renewals included business value, the leases must be adjusted before they can be used as an indication of market rent.

Analysis of Economic Depreciation for Multi-Family Property

This paper uses a hedonic pricing model and National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries data to estimate economic depreciation for multi-family real estate. The findings indicate that investment grade multi-family housing depreciates approximately 2.7% per year in real terms based on total property value. This implies a depreciation rate for just the building of about 3.25% per year. With 2% inflation, this suggests a nominal depreciation rate of about 5.25% per year. Converted into a straight-line depreciation rate that has the same present value, this suggests a depreciable life of 30.5 years - as compared to 27.5 years allowed under the current tax laws. Thus, these laws are slightly favorable to multi-family properties by providing a tax depreciation rate that exceeds economic depreciation, which is in part due to inflation that has been less than expected during the past decade.

Macroeconomic effects of Federal Reserve forward guidance

A large output gap accompanied by stable inflation close to its target calls for further monetary accommodation, but the zero lower bound on interest rates has robbed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the usual tool for its provision. We examine how public statements of FOMC intentions - forward guidance - can substitute for lower rates at the zero bound. We distinguish between Odyssean forward guidance, which publicly commits the FOMC to a future action, and Delphic forward guidance, which merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions. Others have shown how forward guidance that commits the central bank to keeping rates at zero for longer than conditions would otherwise warrant can provide monetary easing, if the public trusts it. We empirically characterize the responses of asset prices and private macroeconomic forecasts to FOMC forward guidance, both before and since the recent financial crisis. Our results show that the FOMC has extensive experience successfully telegraphing its intended adjustments to evolving conditions, so communication difficulties do not present an insurmountable barrier to Odyssean forward guidance. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we investigate how pairing such guidance with bright-line rules for launching rate increases can mitigate risks to the Federal Reserve's price stability mandate

Quantitative global sensitivity analysis of a biologically based dose-response pregnancy model for the thyroid endocrine system

A deterministic biologically based dose-response model for the thyroidal system in a near-term pregnant woman and the fetus was recently developed to evaluate quantitatively thyroid hormone perturbations. The current work focuses on conducting a quantitative global sensitivity analysis on this complex model to identify and characterize the sources and contributions of uncertainties in the predicted model output. The workflow and methodologies suitable for computationally expensive models, such as the Morris screening method and Gaussian Emulation processes, were used for the implementation of the global sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity indices, such as main, total and interaction effects, were computed for a screened set of the total thyroidal system descriptive model input parameters. Furthermore, a narrower sub-set of the most influential parameters affecting the model output of maternal thyroid hormone levels were identified in addition to the characterization of their overall and pair-wise parameter interaction quotients. The characteristic trends of influence in model output for each of these individual model input parameters over their plausible ranges were elucidated using Gaussian Emulation processes. Through global sensitivity analysis we have gained a better understanding of the model behavior and performance beyond the domains of observation by the simultaneous variation in model inputs over their range of plausible uncertainties. The sensitivity analysis helped identify parameters that determine the driving mechanisms of the maternal and fetal iodide kinetics, thyroid function and their interactions, and contributed to an improved understanding of the system modeled. We have thus demonstrated the use and application of global sensitivity analysis for a biologically based dose-response model for sensitive life-stages such as pregnancy that provides richer information on the model and the thyroidal system modeled compared to local sensitivity analysis

The Chicago Fed DSGE Model

The Chicago Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is used for policy analysis and forecasting at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. This article describes its specification and estimation, its dynamic characteristics and how it is used to forecast the US economy. In many respects the model resembles other medium scale New Keynesian frameworks, but there are several features which distinguish it: the monetary policy rule includes forward guidance, productivity is driven by neutral and investment specific technical change, multiple price indices identify in ation and there is a financial accelerator mechanism

Refined Exploration of Turbofan Design Options for an Advanced Single-Aisle Transport

A comprehensive exploration of the turbofan engine design space for an advanced technology single-aisle transport (737/A320 class aircraft) was conducted previously by the authors and is documented in a prior report. Through the course of that study and in a subsequent evaluation of the approach and results, a number of enhancements to the engine design ground rules and assumptions were identified. A follow-on effort was initiated to investigate the impacts of these changes on the original study results. The fundamental conclusions of the prior study were found to still be valid with the revised engine designs. The most significant impact of the design changes was a reduction in the aircraft weight and block fuel penalties incurred with low fan pressure ratio, ultra-high bypass ratio designs. This enables lower noise levels to be pursued (through lower fan pressure ratio) with minor negative impacts on aircraft weight and fuel efficiency. Regardless of the engine design selected, the results of this study indicate the potential for the advanced aircraft to realize substantial improvements in fuel efficiency, emissions, and noise compared to the current vehicles in this size class

Cross-cultural adaptation of instruments assessing breastfeeding determinants: a multi-step approach

Background: Cross-cultural adaptation is a necessary process to effectively use existing instruments in other cultural and language settings. The process of cross-culturally adapting, including translation, of existing instruments is considered a critical set to establishing a meaningful instrument for use in another setting. Using a multi-step approach is considered best practice in achieving cultural and semantic equivalence of the adapted version. We aimed to ensure the content validity of our instruments in the cultural context of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Methods: The Iowa Infant Feeding Attitudes Scale, Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale-Short Form and additional items comprise our consolidated instrument, which was cross-culturally adapted utilizing a multi-step approach during August 2012. Cross-cultural adaptation was achieved through steps to maintain content validity and attain semantic equivalence in the target version. Specifically, Lynn’s recommendation to apply an item-level content validity index score was followed. The revised instrument was translated and back-translated. To ensure semantic equivalence, Brislin’s back-translation approach was utilized followed by the committee review to address any discrepancies that emerged from translation. Results: Our consolidated instrument was adapted to be culturally relevant and translated to yield more reliable and valid results for use in our larger research study to measure infant feeding determinants effectively in our target cultural context. Conclusions: Undertaking rigorous steps to effectively ensure cross-cultural adaptation increases our confidence that the conclusions we make based on our self-report instrument(s) will be stronger. In this way, our aim to achieve strong cross-cultural adaptation of our consolidated instruments was achieved while also providing a clear framework for other researchers choosing to utilize existing instruments for work in other cultural, geographic and population settings