Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia

The authors empirically assess regional integration and liberalization scenarios impact on Indonesia and other Pacific Rim economies, including the complete Uruguay Round, further global liberalization and the creation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) or Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) free trade areas. They consider how major international exchange rate realignments affect the world trade pattern, and Indonesia in particular. The analysis uses a multi-country, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the trade liberalization impact on countries, sectors, and factors. The extended APEC-CGE model consists of nine linked country models: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore (together), the Philippines, Thailand, China (including Hong Kong), Korea and Taiwan, Japan, the United States and the European Union. Each country model is linked through explicit bilateral trade flows modeling for each traded sector. The empirical results lead to several conclusions: a) eliminating tariff and non tariff barriers in industrial countries (especially the Multifibre Agreement) gives Asian developing countries the opportunity to expand exports and achieve productivity gains; b) creation of an APEC free trade area gives participants significant benefits, with little effect on nonmembers while creation of an ASEAN free trade area gives its members little benefit, thus ASEAN countries should work toward more liberalization under GATT or hasten the APEC free trade area creation; c) all economies gain the most from further multilateral liberalization; and d) major exchange rate realignments significantly affect bilateral trade balances and world trade volume and direction. However, they have less effect than trade liberalization on the internal production and trade structure. Sectoral protection andsubsidy rates vary greatly and their elimination yields significant efficiency gains. Changes in exchange rates have less effect.Trade Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Transport and Trade Logistics,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade and Regional Integration,Trade Policy

After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa

After protracted and difficult negotiations, agreement was recently reached on the dimensions of a South African-EU free trade deal. Because of South Africa's prominence in the sub-region, implementation of this agreement will have an impact not only on South Africa, but on all the SADC economies. This paper traces how this impact may be felt over time, using a multi-region model constructed to focus on the determination of sectoral and geographic trade patterns. By separatelymodeling South Africa and the rest of southern Africa, the model can be used to evaluate how alternative SADC regional trade strategies can influence how the EU deal affects the region's economies; by distinguishing among major trading partners (EU, North America, East Asia), the simulations can help illuminate how the trade deal will likely affect current trade patterns The empirical results lead to a number of conclusions: (1) trade creation dominates trade diversion for the region under all FTA arrangements; (2) the rest of southern Africa benefits from an FTA between the EU and South Africa — the recently signed bilateral agreement is not a “beggar thy neighbor” policy; (3) the rest of southern Africa gains more from zero-tariff access to EU markets than from a partial (50 percent) reduction in global tariffs; and (4) the South African economy is not large enough to serve as a growth pole for the region. Access to EU markets provides substantially bigger gains for the rest of southern Africa than does access to South Africa.Trade policy Africa., Free trade., South Africa.,

Policy lessons from a simple open - economy model

The authors show how two-sector models can be used to derive policy lessons about adjustment in developing economies. In the past two decades, changes in the external environment and in economic policies have been the key factors in the performance of developing economies. By and large the shocks have involved the external sector: terms-of-trade shocks or cutbacks in foreign capital. The policy responses most commonly proposed have targeted the external sector: depreciating the real exchange rate or reducing distortionary taxes to make the economy more competitive. The authors provide a starting point for analyzing the relation between external shocks and policy responses. Starting from a small, one-country, two-sector, three-good (1-2-3) model, the authors outline how the effects of a foreign capital inflow and terms-of-trade shock can be analyzed. They derive the assumptions underlying the conventional policy recommendation of real exchange rate depreciation in response to adverse shocks. The implications of such trade and fiscal policy instruments as export subsidies, import tariffs, and domestic indirect taxes can also be studied in this framework. The authors show that the standard advice to depreciate the real exchange rate in the wake of an adverse terms-of-trade shock rests on the condition that the income effect of the external shock dominates its substitution effect. But, depending on the characteristics of the economy (for example, the trade elasticities), policy results may run counter to received wisdom. For example, when the substitution effect ofan adverse external shock dominates, real depreciation is inappropriate. An infusion of foreign capital does not necessarily benefit the nontradable sector, as the results of"Dutch disease"models suggest (for example, in the extreme case of nearly infinite substitution elasticity between imports and domestic goods). When import tariffs are significant sources of public revenue, potential revenue losses from tariff cuts must be offset by other revenue sources to maintain the external current account balance. The paper shows a simple way to calculate the necessary tax adjustment. A major advantage of small models is their simplicity. The example in this paper can be solved analytically - either graphically or algebraically. It also can be solved numerically, using such widely available PC-based spreadsheet programs as Excel. The numerical implementation involves only modest data requirements. The data that governments normally release on national income, fiscal, and balance of payments accounts are sufficient.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Markets and Market Access

Linking Snake Behavior to Nest Predation in a Midwestern Bird Community

Nest predators can adversely affect the viability of songbird populations, and their impact is exacerbated in fragmented habitats. Despite substantial research on this predator-prey interaction, however, almost all of the focus has been on the birds rather than their nest predators, thereby limiting our understanding of the factors that bring predators and nests into contact. We used radiotelemetry to document the activity of two snake species (rat snakes, Elaphe obsoleta; racers, Coluber constrictor) known to prey on nests in Midwestern bird communities and simultaneously monitored 300 songbird nests and tested the hypothesis that predation risk should increase for nests when snakes were more active and in edge habitat preferred by both snake species. Predation risk increased when rat snakes were more active, for all nests combined and for two of the six bird species for which we had sufficient nests to allow separate analyses. This result is consistent with rat snakes being more important nest predators than racers. We found no evidence, however, that nests closer to forest edges were at greater risk. These results are generally consistent with the one previous study that investigated rat snakes and nest predation simultaneously. The seemingly paradoxical failure to find higher predation risk in the snakes\u27 preferred habitat (i.e., edge) might be explained by the snakes using edges at least in part for non-foraging activities. We propose that higher nest predation in fragmented habitats (at least that attributable to snakes) results indirectly from edges promoting larger snake populations, rather than from edges directly increasing the risk of nest predation by snakes. If so, the notion of edges per se functioning as ecological traps merits further study

Black Holes with a Massive Dilaton

The modifications of dilaton black holes which result when the dilaton acquires a mass are investigated. We derive some general constraints on the number of horizons of the black hole and argue that if the product of the black hole charge $Q$ and the dilaton mass $m$ satisfies $Q m < O(1)$ then the black hole has only one horizon. We also argue that for $Q m > O(1)$ there may exist solutions with three horizons and we discuss the causal structure of such solutions. We also investigate the possible structures of extremal solutions and the related problem of two-dimensional dilaton gravity with a massive dilaton.Comment: 36 pages with 5 figures (as uuencoded compressed tar file) (revised version has one major change in bound on mass for extremal solution and minor typos fixed), harvma

Treatment utilization and outcomes in elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal carcinoma: A review of the National Cancer Database

For elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer, therapeutic approaches and outcomes in a modern cohort are not well characterized. Patients ≥70 years old with clinical stage II and III esophageal cancer diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 were identified from the National Cancer Database and stratified based on treatment type. Variables associated with treatment utilization were evaluated using logistic regression and survival evaluated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Propensity matching (1:1) was performed to help account for selection bias. A total of 21,593 patients were identified. Median and maximum ages were 77 and 90, respectively. Treatment included palliative therapy (24.3%), chemoradiation (37.1%), trimodality therapy (10.0%), esophagectomy alone (5.6%), or no therapy (12.9%). Age ≥80 (OR 0.73), female gender (OR 0.81), Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score ≥2 (OR 0.82), and high-volume centers (OR 0.83) were associated with a decreased likelihood of palliative therapy versus no treatment. Age ≥80 (OR 0.79) and Clinical Stage III (OR 0.33) were associated with a decreased likelihood, while adenocarcinoma histology (OR 1.33) and nonacademic cancer centers (OR 3.9), an increased likelihood of esophagectomy alone compared to definitive chemoradiation. Age ≥80 (OR 0.15), female gender (OR 0.80), and non-Caucasian race (OR 0.63) were associated with a decreased likelihood, while adenocarcinoma histology (OR 2.10) and high-volume centers (OR 2.34), an increased likelihood of trimodality therapy compared to definitive chemoradiation. Each treatment type demonstrated improved survival compared to no therapy: palliative treatment (HR 0.49) to trimodality therapy (HR 0.25) with significance between all groups. Any therapy, including palliative care, was associated with improved survival; however, subsets of elderly patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer are less likely to receive aggressive therapy. Care should be taken to not unnecessarily deprive these individuals of treatment that may improve survival

Stereotactic body radiation therapy for the treatment of early-stage minimally invasive adenocarcinoma or adenocarcnioma in situ (formerly bronchioloalveolar carcinoma): A patterns of failure analysis

INTRODUCTION: Ongoing prospective trials exploring stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) often exclude minimally invasive adenocarcinoma or adenocarcnioma in situ, formerly bronchioloalveolar carcinoma (BAC), due to concerns for accurate target delineation on CT. We performed a patterns of failure analysis to compare outcomes between BAC and other NSCLC subtypes. METHODS: One hundred twenty patients with early stage NSCLC were treated with SBRT from 2004–2009. Pathologic confirmation of NSCLC was obtained in 97 patients. Radiotherapy was delivered according to RTOG guidelines. The log-rank test was used to compare outcomes between BAC and other NSCLC. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 29 months. The median SBRT dose was 5400 cGy. Thirteen patients had radiographically diagnosed BAC and five patients had biopsy confirmed BAC, of which two had both. The three-year local control was 100% for biopsy-proven or radiographically diagnosed BAC (n = 18) and 86% for all other NSCLC subtypes (n = 102) (p = 0.13). Likewise, no significant difference was detected between BAC and other NSCLC for 3-year regional failure (12% vs. 20%, p = 0.45), progression-free survival (57.6% vs. 53.5%, p = 0.84) or overall survival (35% vs. 47%, p = 0.66). There was a trend towards lower three-year rates of freedom from distant failure in patients with any diagnosis of BAC compared to those without (26% vs. 38%, p = 0.053). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to other NSCLC subtypes, BAC appears to have similar patterns of failure and survival after treatment with SBRT, however there may be an increased risk of distant metastases with BAC. RTOG guideline-based target delineation provides encouraging local control rates for patients with BAC