Exploring Political Disappointment

Disappointment is often identified as a pathology of modern politics; citizens expect much of politicians, yet governments are ill-equipped to deliver outcomes commensurate with those expectations. The net result is said to be a widespread disappointment; a negative balance between what citizens expect of government and what they perceive governments to deliver. Yet little attention has hitherto been paid to which kinds of citizens are particularly disappointed with politics, and why. This article offers one of the first empirical analyses of political disappointment. Drawing on a survey conducted in Britain, it provides a quantitative measure of political disappointment and explores its prevalence among citizens. It then considers which social groups might be more prone to disappointment than others. In particular, it explores whether certain groups are more disappointed by virtue of holding very high expectations of government or very low perceptions of government performance. The article concludes by considering what strategies might be open to policy makers to alleviate political disappointment

What's the matter with realism?

International relations, as an academic discipline, is not known for its strength in the area of theory. It has no immediate equivalent to the rich contrasts of perspective generated in sociology by the legacy of Max Weber, Marx and Durkheim—a lack so felt that Martin Wight once wrote a paper called ‘Why is there no International Theory?’ His own answer was, in part, that there is nothing further to theorize after the discovery of the repetitive mechanisms of the balance of power. This was a sad conclusion for such an acute and creative mind to reach. But it does illustrate a central feature of IR theory. For the balance of power, it can be argued, is the limit of any Realist theory of international relations. And Wight's conclusion was perhaps more an index of the dominance of a Realist orthodoxy than a relection of the inherent properties of ‘the international’

Kepler Mission Stellar and Instrument Noise Properties Revisited

An earlier study of the Kepler Mission noise properties on time scales of primary relevance to detection of exoplanet transits found that higher than expected noise followed to a large extent from the stars, rather than instrument or data analysis performance. The earlier study over the first six quarters of Kepler data is extended to the full four years ultimately comprising the mission. Efforts to improve the pipeline data analysis have been successful in reducing noise levels modestly as evidenced by smaller values derived from the current data products. The new analyses of noise properties on transit time scales show significant changes in the component attributed to instrument and data analysis, with essentially no change in the inferred stellar noise. We also extend the analyses to time scales of several days, instead of several hours to better sample stellar noise that follows from magnetic activity. On the longer time scale there is a shift in stellar noise for solar-type stars to smaller values in comparison to solar values.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, accepted by A

What's the matter with realism?

International relations, as an academic discipline, is not known for its strength in the area of theory. It has no immediate equivalent to the rich contrasts of perspective generated in sociology by the legacy of Max Weber, Marx and Durkheim—a lack so felt that Martin Wight once wrote a paper called ‘Why is there no International Theory?’ His own answer was, in part, that there is nothing further to theorize after the discovery of the repetitive mechanisms of the balance of power. This was a sad conclusion for such an acute and creative mind to reach. But it does illustrate a central feature of IR theory. For the balance of power, it can be argued, is the limit of any Realist theory of international relations. And Wight's conclusion was perhaps more an index of the dominance of a Realist orthodoxy than a relection of the inherent properties of ‘the international’

Deep GALEX Observations of the Coma Cluster: Source Catalog and Galaxy Counts

We present a source catalog from deep 26 ks GALEX observations of the Coma cluster in the far-UV (FUV; 1530 A) and near-UV (NUV; 2310 A) wavebands. The observed field is centered 0.9 deg (1.6 Mpc) south-west of the Coma core, and has full optical photometric coverage with SDSS. The catalog consists of 9700 galaxies with GALEX and SDSS photometry, including 242 spectroscopically-confirmed Coma member galaxies that range from giant spirals and elliptical galaxies to dwarf irregular and early-type galaxies. The full multi-wavelength catalog (cluster plus background galaxies) is ~80% complete to NUV=23 and FUV=23.5, and has a limiting depth at NUV=24.5 and FUV=25.0 which corresponds to a star formation rate of ~0.001 Msun/yr at the distance of Coma. Our deep GALEX observations required a two-fold approach to generating a source catalog: we used a Bayesian deblending algorithm to measure faint and compact sources (using SDSS coordinates as a position prior), and relied on the GALEX pipeline catalog for bright/extended objects. We performed simulations to assess the influence that systematic effects (e.g. object blends, source confusion, Eddington Bias) have on source detection and photometry when using both methods. The Bayesian deblending method roughly doubles the number of source detections and provides reliable photometry to a few magnitudes deeper than the GALEX pipeline catalog. This method is also free from source confusion over the UV magnitude range studied here; conversely, we estimate that the GALEX pipeline catalogs are confusion limited at magnitudes fainter than NUV~23 and FUV~24. We have measured the total UV galaxy counts using our catalog and report a ~50% excess of counts across FUV=22-23.5 and NUV=21.5-23 relative to previous GALEX measurements, which is not attributed to cluster member galaxies. Our galaxy counts are a better match to deeper UV counts measured with HST.Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

Exploring the Beta Model Using Proportional Budget Information in a Contingent Valuation Study

Using a set of random telephone and Internet (web-based) survey samples for a national advisory referendum, we implement Beta models to handle proportional budget information, and allow for consistency in modeling assumptions and the calculation of estimated willingness to pay (WTP). Results indicate significant budget constraint effects and demonstrate the potential for Beta models in handling mental-accounting type information.Beta model

Testing for Budget Constraint Effects in a National Advisory Referendum Survey on the Kyoto Protocol

In contrast to providing standard reminders about remembering household budgets, does asking survey respondents about their discretionary income and its use affect their voting responses in a national advisory referendum survey? We explore this question using U.S. household data from a unique set of multi-mode random samples (telephone and Internet surveys), and an advisory referendum concerning the Kyoto Protocol. The contingent valuation method is applied to estimate household willingness to pay (WTP) for a split-sample treatment: respondents who only received a standard reminder of household budgets (control group) versus respondents who received two mental accounting-type questions on discretionary income and its uses (treatment group). Results indicate that the treatment significantly influences voting responses and lowers estimated household WTP.budget constraint, contingent valuation, Kyoto Protocol, mental accounts, referendum, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Detection Of KOI-13.01 Using The Photometric Orbit

We use the KOI-13 transiting star-planet system as a test case for the recently developed BEER algorithm (Faigler & Mazeh 2011), aimed at identifying non-transiting low-mass companions by detecting the photometric variability induced by the companion along its orbit. Such photometric variability is generated by three mechanisms, including the beaming effect, tidal ellipsoidal distortion, and reflection/heating. We use data from three Kepler quarters, from the first year of the mission, while ignoring measurements within the transit and occultation, and show that the planet's ephemeris is clearly detected. We fit for the amplitude of each of the three effects and use the beaming effect amplitude to estimate the planet's minimum mass, which results in M_p sin i = 9.2 +/- 1.1 M_J (assuming the host star parameters derived by Szabo et al. 2011). Our results show that non-transiting star-planet systems similar to KOI-13.01 can be detected in Kepler data, including a measurement of the orbital ephemeris and the planet's minimum mass. Moreover, we derive a realistic estimate of the amplitudes uncertainties, and use it to show that data obtained during the entire lifetime of the Kepler mission, of 3.5 years, will allow detecting non-transiting close-in low-mass companions orbiting bright stars, down to the few Jupiter mass level. Data from the Kepler Extended Mission, if funded by NASA, will further improve the detection capabilities.Comment: Accepted to AJ on October 4, 2011. Kepler Q5 Long Cadence data will become publicly available on MAST by October 23. Comments welcome (V2: minor changes, to reflect proof corrections

We Could, but Should We? Ethical Considerations for Providing Access to GeoCities and Other Historical Digital Collections

We live in an era in which the ways that we can make sense of our past are evolving as more artifacts from that past become digital. At the same time, the responsibilities of traditional gatekeepers who have negotiated the ethics of historical data collection and use, such as librarians and archivists, are increasingly being sidelined by the system builders who decide whether and how to provide access to historical digital collections, often without sufficient reflection on the ethical issues at hand. It is our aim to better prepare system builders to grapple with these issues. This paper focuses discussions around one such digital collection from the dawn of the web, asking what sorts of analyses can and should be conducted on archival copies of the GeoCities web hosting platform that dates to 1994.This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the US National Science Foundation (grants 1618695 and 1704369), the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Start Smart Labs, and Compute Canada