The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

A mixed-method investigation of patient monitoring and enhanced feedback in routine practice: Barriers and facilitators

Objective: To investigate the barriers and facilitators of an effective implementation of an outcome monitoring and feedback system in a UK National Health Service psychological therapy service. Method: An outcome monitoring system was introduced in two services. Enhanced feedback was given to therapists after session 4. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used, including questionnaires for therapists and patients. Thematic analysis was carried out on written and verbal feedback from therapists. Analysis of patient outcomes for 202 episodes of therapy was compared with benchmark data of 136 episodes of therapy for which feedback was not given to therapists. Results: Themes influencing the feasibility and acceptability of the feedback system were the extent to which therapists integrated the measures and feedback into the therapy, availability of administrative support, information technology, and complexity of the service. There were low levels of therapist actions resulting from the feedback, including discussing the feedback in supervision and with patients. Conclusions: The findings support the feasibility and acceptability of setting up a routine system in a complex service, but a number of challenges and barriers have to be overcome and therapist differences are apparent. More research on implementation and effectiveness is needed in diverse clinical settings

Dengue: a continuing global threat.

Dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever are important arthropod-borne viral diseases. Each year, there are ∼50 million dengue infections and ∼500,000 individuals are hospitalized with dengue haemorrhagic fever, mainly in Southeast Asia, the Pacific and the Americas. Illness is produced by any of the four dengue virus serotypes. A global strategy aimed at increasing the capacity for surveillance and outbreak response, changing behaviours and reducing the disease burden using integrated vector management in conjunction with early and accurate diagnosis has been advocated. Antiviral drugs and vaccines that are currently under development could also make an important contribution to dengue control in the future

A Prospective Nested Case-Control Study of Dengue in Infants: Rethinking and Refining the Antibody-Dependent Enhancement Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Model

Analyses of a prospective case-control study of infant dengue by Daniel Libraty and colleagues casts doubt on the antibody-dependent enhancement model for dengue hemorrhagic fever

Host Gene Expression Profiling of Dengue Virus Infection in Cell Lines and Patients

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-born viral disease affecting humans, yet there is, at present, no drug treatment for the disease nor are there any validated host targets for therapeutic intervention. Using microarray technology to monitor the response of virtually every human gene, we aimed to identify the ways in which humans interact with dengue virus during infection in order to discover new therapeutic targets that could be exploited to control viral replication. From the activated genes, we identified three pathways common to in vitro and in vivo infection; the NF-κB initiated immune pathway, the type I interferon pathway, and the ubiquitin proteasome pathway. We next found that inhibiting the ubiquitin proteasome pathway, or activating the type I interferon pathway, resulted in significant inhibition of viral replication. However, inhibiting the NF-κB initiated immune pathway had no effect on viral replication. We suggest that drugs that target the ubiquitin proteasome pathway may prove effective at killing the dengue virus, and, if used therapeutically, improve clinical outcome in dengue disease