Unsteady turbulent buoyant plumes

We model the unsteady evolution of turbulent buoyant plumes following temporal changes to the source conditions. The integral model is derived from radial integration of the governing equations expressing the conservation of mass, axial momentum and buoyancy. The non-uniform radial profiles of the axial velocity and density deficit in the plume are explicitly described by shape factors in the integral equations; the commonly-assumed top-hat profiles lead to shape factors equal to unity. The resultant model is hyperbolic when the momentum shape factor, determined from the radial profile of the mean axial velocity, differs from unity. The solutions of the model when source conditions are maintained at constant values retain the form of the well-established steady plume solutions. We demonstrate that the inclusion of a momentum shape factor that differs from unity leads to a well-posed integral model. Therefore, our model does not exhibit the mathematical pathologies that appear in previously proposed unsteady integral models of turbulent plumes. A stability threshold for the value of the shape factor is identified, resulting in a range of its values where the amplitude of small perturbations to the steady solutions decay with distance from the source. The hyperbolic character of the system allows the formation of discontinuities in the fields describing the plume properties during the unsteady evolution. We compute numerical solutions to illustrate the transient development following an abrupt change in the source conditions. The adjustment to the new source conditions occurs through the propagation of a pulse of fluid through the plume. The dynamics of this pulse are described by a similarity solution and, by constructing this new similarity solution, we identify three regimes in which the evolution of the transient pulse following adjustment of the source qualitatively differ.Comment: 41 pages, 16 figures, under consideration for publication in Journal of Fluid Mechanic

Intelligence-Led Policing and Forces of Organizational Change in the United States

The intent of this study is to explore organisational factors that, both conceptually and operationally, facilitate or inhibit a police agency from adopting intelligence-led policing (ILP). Research to date is yet to explore organisational factors related to ILP among American law enforcement agencies. Drawing from original survey data of national law enforcement agencies as part of a 2009 US Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice-funded project, the present study incorporates force field analysis to explore factors of ILP adoption in the USA. Findings suggest state and local agencies' familiarity with the intelligence-led concept and utilisation of open source and received information appear to be driving adoption. Conversely, formal policies, lack of sufficient personnel, training and a lack of intelligence-led decision-making appear to be inhibiting change towards the ILP paradigm. It appears agency size has minimal influence on an agency's shift towards ILP. Access to necessary resources and training appear to pose a significant challenge to law enforcement. Limited resources to develop an intelligence-led approach may result in the capability going underdeveloped or taking the form of other policing practices related to available resources – such as homeland security preparedness. This research is one of the first empirical explorations of ILP adoption, especially with a national sample of state and local agencies. Further conceptual clarity of the ILP paradigm is provided and organisational factors are discussed

Prevention for a Healthier California: Investments in Disease Prevention Yield Significant Savings, Stronger Communities

Estimates how much the state and the nation could save in healthcare costs by investing in disease prevention through community programs that increase physical activity, improve nutrition, and reduce tobacco use. Provides examples of prevention efforts

Implementing Intelligence-Led Policing: An Application of Loose-Coupling Theory

Author's manuscript made available in accordance with the publisher's policy.Purpose: This research is intended to inform a knowledge gap in the literature and present the first national findings related to intelligence-led policing adoption among state and local agencies. Specific practices are identified to inform scholars and practitioners regarding intelligence-led policing behaviors. Methods: Original survey research from a federally-funded project is gleaned to explore intelligence-led policing adoption through a loose-coupling theoretical perspective. Negative binomial and logistic regression models are employed to identify predictive relationships. Results: Agencies nationwide appear to be closely following the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan recommendations to enhance information sharing. Consistent with the Department of Homeland Security’s Target Capabilities List is also observed. Agency size appears to have a significant effect on key organizational information sharing behaviors. The findings are tempered due to limitations in the research design. Conclusions: Local agencies appear to be tightly-coupled with the recommendations put forth in the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan in their efforts to adopt intelligence-led policing. Agency size appears to enhance adoption across most dependent metrics. This research progresses the limited evidence base and progress regarding this emerging policing philosophy

Uncertainty analysis of a model of wind-blown volcanic plumes

Mathematical models of natural processes can be used as inversion tools to predict unobserved properties from measured quantities. Uncertainty in observations and model formulation impact on the efficacy of inverse modelling. We present a general methodology, history matching, that can be used to investigate the effect of observational and model uncertainty on inverse modelling studies. We demonstrate history matching on an integral model of volcanic plumes that is used to estimate source conditions from observations of the rise height of plumes during the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, in 2010 and Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 2011. Sources of uncertainty are identified and quantified, and propagated through the integral plume model. A preliminary sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the uncertain model parameters that strongly influence model predictions. Model predictions are assessed against observations through an implausibility measure that rules out model inputs that are considered implausible given the quantified uncertainty. We demonstrate that the source mass flux at the volcano can be estimated from plume height observations, but the magmatic temperature, exit velocity and exsolved gas mass fraction cannot be accurately determined. Uncertainty in plume height observations and entrainment coefficients results in a large range of plausible values of the source mass flux. Our analysis shows that better constraints on entrainment coefficients for volcanic plumes and more precise observations of plume height are required to obtain tightly constrained estimates of the source mass flux

Rapid emergency assessment of ash and gas hazard for future eruptions at Santorini Volcano, Greece

Hazard assessments for long-dormant volcanoes, where information is rarely available, typically have to be made rapidly and in the face of considerable uncertainty and often poor information. A conditional (assuming an eruption), scenario-based probabilistic approach to such an assessment is presented here for Santorini volcano (Greece). The rapid assessment was developed and implemented in response to the 2011-2012 unrest crisis in order to inform emergency management and planning. This paper synthesises the results presented to the Greek National Committee and scientific community involved. Two plausible eruptions at Santorini were investigated, using multiple inputs and dispersal models, based on observations of historic eruptions and expert judgement. For ash hazard, a 'most likely' eruption scenario was developed, characterised by slow lava extrusion over periods of one to two years with weak but persistent explosions and ash venting up to 3 km. A second 'largest considered' sub-Plinian explosive scenario assumed a 12 km high column of 4-h duration. For gas hazard, constant fluxes of 200 and 800 tons/day SO2 were assumed for the duration of the eruption scenarios, noting that there is very little evidence to constrain SO2 flux from Santorini eruptions. Statistical models of likely wind conditions with height and season were developed from decadal reanalysis time series showing that consistent low-altitude winds were rarely maintained for more than a few days. Stochastic models of ash (TEPHRA2, VOL-CALPUFF) and gas (AERMOD) dispersal provided outputs in the form of probability maps and exceedance probability curves for key loading and concentration thresholds at important locations on the island. The results from the rapid assessments presented in this paper confirm that ash and gas hazard is likely to be of concern if an eruption of Santorini occurs. Higher hazard may be expected to the south and east of the volcano, notably at important tourist and transport hubs. Low hazard to the north and northwest suggests that these may be suitable locations for emergency response centres and emergency critical infrastructure. This approach may provide a blueprint for rapid ash and gas assessment for other long-dormant volcanoes and we provide suggestions for refining the methods used.</p

Interpretation of umbrella cloud growth and morphology:implications for flow regimes of short-lived and long-lived eruptions

New numerical and analytical modeling shows that the growth of a volcanic umbrella cloud, expressed as the increase of radius with time, proceeds through regimes, dominated by different force balances. Four regimes are identified: Regime Ia is the long-time behavior of continuously-supplied intrusions in the buoyancy-inertial regime; regime IIa is the long-time behavior of continuously-supplied, turbulent drag-dominated intrusions; regime Ib is the long-time behavior of buoyancy-inertial intrusions of constant volume; and regime IIb that of turbulent drag-dominated intrusions of constant volume. Power-law exponents for spreading time in each regime are 3/4 (Ia), 5/9 (IIa), 1/3 (Ib), and 2/9 (IIb). Both numerical modeling and observations indicate that transition periods between the regimes can be long-lasting, and during these transitions, the spreading rate does not follow a simple power law. Predictions of the new model are consistent with satellite data from seven eruptions and, together with observations of umbrella cloud structure and morphological evolution, support the existence of multiple spreading regimes

Cambrian cinctan echinoderms shed light on feeding in the ancestral deuterostome

Reconstructing the feeding mode of the latest common ancestor of deuterostomes is key to elucidating the early evolution of feeding in chordates and allied phyla; however, it is debated whether the ancestral deuterostome was a tentaculate feeder or a pharyngeal filter feeder. To address this, we evaluated the hydrodynamics of feeding in a group of fossil stem-group echinoderms (cinctans) using computational fluid dynamics. We simulated water flow past three-dimensional digital models of a Cambrian fossil cinctan in a range of possible life positions, adopting both passive tentacular feeding and active pharyngeal filter feeding. The results demonstrate that an orientation with the mouth facing downstream of the current was optimal for drag and lift reduction. Moreover, they show that there was almost no flow to the mouth and associated marginal groove under simulations of passive feeding, whereas considerable flow towards the animal was observed for active feeding, which would have enhanced the transport of suspended particles to the mouth. This strongly suggests that cinctans were active pharyngeal filter feeders, like modern enteropneust hemichordates and urochordates, indicating that the ancestral deuterostome employed a similar feeding strategy