A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information

The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for the period 1980-2008 for a quite disaggregated set of fiscal variables; secondly, we present a real-time fiscal database for a subset of fiscal variables, composed of biannual vintages of data for the euro area period (2000-2009). All models are multivariate, state space mixed- frequencies models estimated with available national accounts fiscal data (mostly annual) and, more importantly, monthly and quarterly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. We provide not seasonally- and seasonally-adjusted data. Focusing solely on intra-annual fiscal information for interpolation purposes allows us to capture genuine intra-annual "fiscal" dynamics in the data. Thus, we provide fiscal data that avoid some problems likely to appear in studies using fiscal time series interpolated on the basis of general macroeconomic indicators, namely the well-known decoupling of tax collection from the evolution of standard macroeconomic tax bases (revenue windfalls/shortfalls). JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6.euro area, Fiscal policies, Interpolation, mixed frequencies, Unobserved Components models

Horologium Aeternae Sapientiae

Màster Cultures Medievals. Assignatura Mística Medieval en el Pensament Europeu (Exposició Virtual 2017PID-UB/027) - Universitat Barcelona.- Tutora: Blanca GaríIncunable amb enquadernació relligada de pergamí. Volum de 64 folis, cada un d'una mida aproximada de 16 x 21,5 cm. Conté Ad lectorem, Prologus, Liber Primus, Liber Secundus, Oficium Aeternae Sapientiae, Meditationes i Oratio ad Sancti Dominicum. A la primera pàgina, una petita anotació al marge superior esquerra, de difícil lectura, indica que la propietària del llibre havia estat en algun moment una tal Katerina Bastida

Forecasting fiscal time series using mixed frequency data

Given the increased importance of …fiscal monitoring, this study amends the existing literature in the …field of intra-annual fi…scal data in two main dimensions. First, we use quarterly fi…scal data to forecast a very disaggregated set of …fiscal series at annual frequency. This makes the analysis useful in the typical forecasting environment of large institutions, which employ a "bottom-up" or disaggregated framework. Aside from this practical type of consideration, we fi…nd that forecasts for total revenues and expenditures via their subcomponents can actually result more accurate than a direct forecast of the aggregate. Second, we employ a Mixed Data Sampling (MiDaS) approach to analyze mixed frequency …fiscal data, which is a methodological novelty. It is shown that MiDaS is the best approach for the analysis of mixed frequency fi…scal data compared to two alternative approaches. The results regarding the information content of quarterly …fiscal data con…rm previous work that such data should be taken into account as it becomes available throughout the year for improving the end-year forecast. For instance, once data for the third quarter is incorporated, the annual forecast becomes very accurate (very close to actual data). We also benchmark against the European Commission’s forecast and fi…nd the results fare favorably, particularly when considering that they stem from a simple univariate framework

Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?

Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as published/announced by the government; (ii) incoming, observed data on the actual degree of implementation of ongoing plans. We formulate and estimate empirical models for a number of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) to show that government (consumption) targets convey useful information about ex-post policy developments when policy changes significantly (even if past credibility is low) and when there is limited information about the implementation of plans (e.g. at the beginning of a fiscal year). In addition, our models are instrumental to unveil the current course of policy in real-time. Our approach complements a well-established branch of the literature that finds politically-motivated biases in policy targets

Fiscal policy shocks in the euro area and the US: an empirical assessment

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly available quarterly dataset of fiscal variables for the period 1981-2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro area countries and the US, we use a standard structural VAR framework, and study the impact of aggregated and disaggregated government spending and net taxes shocks. In addition, to frame euro area results, we apply the same methodology for the same sample period to US data. We also explore the sensitivity of the provided results to the inclusion of variables aiming at measuring “financial stress” (increases in risk) and “fiscal stress” (sustainability concerns). Analysing US and euro area data with a common methodology provides some interesting insights on the interpretation of fiscal policy shocks. JEL Classification: E62, H30euro area, Fiscal multipliers, Fiscal shocks, SVAR

Structural changes of Arthrospira sp. after low energy sonication treatment for microalgae harvesting: elucidating key parameters to detect the rupture of gas vesicles

© . This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/The buoyancy suppression by low energy sonication (LES) treatment (0.8 W·mL-1, 20 kHz, 10 s) has recently been proposed as an initial harvesting step for Arthrospira sp. This paper aims to describe the structural changes in Arthrospira sp. after LES treatment and to present how these structural changes affect the results obtained by different analytical techniques. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) micrographs of trichomes evidenced the gas vesicles rupture but also revealed a rearrangement of thylakoids and more visible phycobilisomes were observed. Differences between treated and untreated samples were detected by confocal microscopy, flow cytometry and optical microscopy but not by electrical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). After LES treatment, 2-fold increase in autofluorescence at 610/660 nm was measured (phycocyanin/allophycocyanin emission wavelengths) and a ten-fold decrease in side scatter light intensity (due to a reduction of trichome’s inner complexity). This was further confirmed by optical microscopy showing changes on trichomes appearance (from wrinkled to smooth).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Real-time fiscal forecasting using mixed frequency data

The sovereign debt crisis has increased the importance of monitoring budgetary execution. We employ real‐time data using a Mixed Data Sampling (MiDaS) methodology to demonstrate how budgetary slippages can be detected early on. We show that in spite of using real‐time data, the year‐end forecast errors diminish significantly when incorporating intra‐annual information. Our results show the benefits of forecasting aggregates via subcomponents, in this case total government revenue and expenditure. Our methodology could significantly improve fiscal surveillance and could therefore be an important part of the European Commission's model toolkit

Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction in Stool Detects Transmission of Strongyloides stercoralis from an Infected Donor to Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

Solid organ transplant recipients can acquire Strongyloides stercoralis from an infected donor. The diagnosis of S. stercoralis in immunocompromised individuals may be challenging due to a lower sensitivity of available parasitological and serological methods, compared with immunocompetent individuals. Recently, a real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in stool has been developed for S. stercoralis diagnosis. We report two cases of S. stercoralis infection transmitted by a donor to two solid organ transplant recipients, whose stool samples were diagnosed using RT-PCR. This test could play an important role in S. stercoralis diagnosis in immunosuppressed patients, facilitating rapid treatment initiation and reducing the risk of severe strongyloidiasis. Adherence to current recommendations of screening among donors and recipients from endemic areas is also urgently needed

El corazón devorado de Gui, le Châtelain de Coucy (ca. 1167-1203)

A finales del siglo XIII, el autor conocido como Jakèmes escribió Le Roman du Châtelain de Coucy et de la dame de Fayel, una de las versiones más elaboradas del motivo del corazón devorado. El protagonista del relato, Regnaus de Coucy, es presentado como un caballero y poeta excepcional y ha sido identificado como la proyección literaria del trouvère y caballero cruzado Gui IV de Coucy (ca. 1167-1203). Pero, ¿cómo es posible que este personaje histórico se convirtiera en leyenda en menos de cien años? El análisis de los principales temas poéticos del corpus lírico del trouvère y del roman de Jakèmes, junto con los datos biográficos conservados sobre Gui, nos permitirán hacer un seguimiento de este proceso, a lo largo del cual el uso metafórico que se hace del corazón desempeña un papel fundamental para entender cómo este caballero terminó siendo el protagonista de la leyenda del corazón devorado.A finals del segle XIII, l'autor conegut com a Jakèmes, va escriure "Le Roman du Châtelain de Coucy et de la dame de Fayel", una de les versions més elaborades del motiu del cor devorat. El protagonista del relat, Regnaus de Coucy, es presentat com un cavaller i poeta excepcional i ha estat identificat com la projecció literària del "trouvère" i cavaller croat Gui IV de Coucy (ca. 1167-1203). Però, com és possible que un personatge històric es converteixi en llegenda en menys de cent anys? L'anàlisi dels principals temes poètics del corpus líric del "trouvère" i del "roman de Jakèmes", juntament amb les dades biogràfiques conservades sobre Gui, ens permetran fer un seguiment d'aquest procés, al llarg del qual l'ús metafòric que es fa del cor juga un paper fonamental per tal d'entendre com aquest cavaller va acabar sent el protagonista de la llegenda del cor devorat.In the late 13th century, the author known as Jakèmes wrote Le Roman du Châtelain de Coucy et de la dame de Fayel, one of the most elaborated versions of the motif of the eaten heart. The main character of the story, Regnaus de Coucy, is presented as an exceptional knight and poet and has been identified as the literary projection of the trouvère and crusader knight Gui IV de Coucy (ca. 1167-1203). ¿How is it possible, that this historical figure became a legend in less than a hundred years? The analysis of the main poetic themes of the lyrical corpus of the trouvère and the roman de Jakèmes, together with the biographical data preserved on Gui, will allow us to follow this process, along which the metaphorical use of the heart plays a fundamental role in understanding how this knight ended up being the protagonist of the legend of the eaten heart