New approach to Dynamical Monte Carlo Methods: application to an Epidemic Model

A new approach to Dynamical Monte Carlo Methods is introduced to simulate markovian processes. We apply this approach to formulate and study an epidemic Generalized SIRS model. The results are in excellent agreement with the forth order Runge-Kutta Method in a region of deterministic solution. We also demonstrate that purely local interactions reproduce a poissonian-like process at mesoscopic level. The simulations for this case are checked self-consistently using a stochastic version of the Euler Method.Comment: Written with Scientific WorkPlace 3.51 in REVTex4 format, 11 pages with 2 figures in postscript forma

Quality of life with conservative care compared with assisted peritoneal dialysis and haemodialysis

Background. There is little information about quality of life (QoL) for patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) choosing conservative kidney management (CKM). The Frail and Elderly Patients on Dialysis (FEPOD) study demonstrated that frailty was associated with poorer QoL outcomes with little difference between dialysis modalities [assisted peritoneal dialysis (aPD) or haemodialysis (HD)]. We therefore extended the FEPOD study to include CKM patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate ⌉10 mL/min/1.73m2 (i.e. individuals with ESKD otherwise likely to be managed with dialysis). Methods. CKM patients were propensity matched to HD and aPD patients by age, gender, ethnicity, diabetes status and index of deprivation. QoL outcomes measured were Short Form-12 (SF12), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression score, symptom score, Illness Intrusiveness Rating Scale (IIRS) and Renal Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire. Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale. Generalized linear modelling was used to assess the impact of treatment modality on QoL outcomes, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Results. In total, 84 (28 CKM, 28 HD and 28 PD) patients were included. Median age for the cohort was 82 (79-88) years. Compared with CKM, aPD was associated with higher SF12 physical component score (PCS) [Exp B (95% confidence interval)=1.20 (1.00-1.45), P<0.05] and lower symptom score [Exp B=0.62 (0.43-0.90), P=0.01]; depression score was lower in HD compared with CKM [Exp B=0.70 (0.52-0.92), P=0.01]. Worsening frailty was associated with higher depression scores [Exp B=2.59 (1.45-4.62), P<0.01], IIRS [Exp B=1.20 (1.12-1.28), P<0.01] and lower SF12 PCS [Exp B=0.87 (0.83-0.93), P<0.01]. Conclusion. Treatment by dialysis, both with aPD and HD, improved some QoL measures. Overall, aPD was equal to or slightly better than the other modalities in this elderly population. However, as in the primary FEPOD study, frailty was associated with worse QoL measures irrespective of CKD modality. These findings highlight the need for an individualized approach to the management of ESKD in older people.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Predicting 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of the National Hip Fracture Database case-mix adjustment model.

OBJECTIVES: The National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) publishes hospital-level risk-adjusted mortality rates following hip fracture surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The performance of the risk model used by the NHFD was compared with the widely-used Nottingham Hip Fracture Score. METHODS: Data from 94 hospitals on patients aged 60 to 110 who had hip fracture surgery between May 2013 and July 2013 were analysed. Data were linked to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) death register to calculate the 30-day mortality rate. Risk of death was predicted for each patient using the NHFD and Nottingham models in a development dataset using logistic regression to define the models' coefficients. This was followed by testing the performance of these refined models in a second validation dataset. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality rate was 5.36% in the validation dataset (n = 3861), slightly lower than the 6.40% in the development dataset (n = 4044). The NHFD and Nottingham models showed a slightly lower discrimination in the validation dataset compared with the development dataset, but both still displayed moderate discriminative power (c-statistic for NHFD = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.74; Nottingham model = 0.70, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.75). Both models defined similar ranges of predicted mortality risk (1% to 18%) in assessment of calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Both models have limitations in predicting mortality for individual patients after hip fracture surgery, but the NHFD risk adjustment model performed as well as the widely-used Nottingham prognostic tool and is therefore a reasonable alternative for risk adjustment in the United Kingdom hip fracture population.Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2017;6:550-556

Rupture by damage accumulation in rocks

The deformation of rocks is associated with microcracks nucleation and propagation, i.e. damage. The accumulation of damage and its spatial localization lead to the creation of a macroscale discontinuity, so-called "fault" in geological terms, and to the failure of the material, i.e. a dramatic decrease of the mechanical properties as strength and modulus. The damage process can be studied both statically by direct observation of thin sections and dynamically by recording acoustic waves emitted by crack propagation (acoustic emission). Here we first review such observations concerning geological objects over scales ranging from the laboratory sample scale (dm) to seismically active faults (km), including cliffs and rock masses (Dm, hm). These observations reveal complex patterns in both space (fractal properties of damage structures as roughness and gouge), time (clustering, particular trends when the failure approaches) and energy domains (power-law distributions of energy release bursts). We use a numerical model based on progressive damage within an elastic interaction framework which allows us to simulate these observations. This study shows that the failure in rocks can be the result of damage accumulation

Male breast cancer

Male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease representing less than 1% of all breast cancers (BC) and less than 1% of cancers in men. Age at presentation is mostly in the late 60s. MBC is recognized as an estrogen-driven disease, specifically related to hyperestrogenism. About 20% of MBC patients have family history for BC. Mutations in BRCA1 and, predominantly, BRCA2, account for approximately 10% of MBC cases. Because of its rarity, MBC is often compared with female BC (FBC). Based on age-frequency distribution, age-specific incidence rate patterns and prognostic factors profiles, MBC is considered similar to late-onset, postmenopausal estrogen/progesterone receptor positive (ER+/PR+) FBC. However, clinical and pathological characteristics of MBC do not exactly overlap FBC. Compared with FBC, MBC has been reported to occur later in life, present at a higher stage, and display lower histologic grade, with a higher proportion of ER+ and PR+ tumors. Although rare, MBC remains a substantial cause for morbidity and mortality in men, probably because of its occurrence in advanced age and delayed diagnosis. Diagnosis and treatment of MBC generally is similar to that of FBC. Men tend to be treated with mastectomy rather than breast-conserving surgery. The backbone of adjuvant therapy or palliative treatment for advanced disease is endocrine, mostly tamoxifen. Use of FBC-based therapy led to the observation that treatment outcomes for MBC are worse and that survival rates for MBC do not improve like FBC. These different outcomes may suggest a non-appropriate utilization of treatments and that different underlying pathogenetic mechanisms may exist between male and female BC

Circumstellar disks and planets. Science cases for next-generation optical/infrared long-baseline interferometers

We present a review of the interplay between the evolution of circumstellar disks and the formation of planets, both from the perspective of theoretical models and dedicated observations. Based on this, we identify and discuss fundamental questions concerning the formation and evolution of circumstellar disks and planets which can be addressed in the near future with optical and infrared long-baseline interferometers. Furthermore, the importance of complementary observations with long-baseline (sub)millimeter interferometers and high-sensitivity infrared observatories is outlined.Comment: 83 pages; Accepted for publication in "Astronomy and Astrophysics Review"; The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Measurement of the top quark-pair production cross section with ATLAS in pp collisions at \sqrt{s}=7\TeV

A measurement of the production cross-section for top quark pairs(\ttbar) in $pp$ collisions at \sqrt{s}=7 \TeV is presented using data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in two different topologies: single lepton (electron $e$ or muon $\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least four jets, and dilepton ($ee$, $\mu\mu$ or $e\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least two jets. In a data sample of 2.9 pb-1, 37 candidate events are observed in the single-lepton topology and 9 events in the dilepton topology. The corresponding expected backgrounds from non-\ttbar Standard Model processes are estimated using data-driven methods and determined to be $12.2 \pm 3.9$ events and $2.5 \pm 0.6$ events, respectively. The kinematic properties of the selected events are consistent with SM \ttbar production. The inclusive top quark pair production cross-section is measured to be \sigmattbar=145 \pm 31 ^{+42}_{-27} pb where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The measurement agrees with perturbative QCD calculations.Comment: 30 pages plus author list (50 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, CERN-PH number and final journal adde

Inclusive search for same-sign dilepton signatures in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

An inclusive search is presented for new physics in events with two isolated leptons (e or mu) having the same electric charge. The data are selected from events collected from p p collisions at root s = 7 TeV by the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb(-1). The spectra in dilepton invariant mass, missing transverse momentum and jet multiplicity are presented and compared to Standard Model predictions. In this event sample, no evidence is found for contributions beyond those of the Standard Model. Limits are set on the cross-section in a fiducial region for new sources of same-sign high-mass dilepton events in the ee, e mu and mu mu channels. Four models predicting same-sign dilepton signals are constrained: two descriptions of Majorana neutrinos, a cascade topology similar to supersymmetry or universal extra dimensions, and fourth generation d-type quarks. Assuming a new physics scale of 1 TeV, Majorana neutrinos produced by an effective operator V with masses below 460 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. A lower limit of 290 GeV is set at 95% confidence level on the mass of fourth generation d-type quarks

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results