On the Role of NAO Driven Interannual Variability in Rainfall Seasonality on Water Resources and Hydrologic Design in a Typical Mediterranean Basin

In the last several decades, extended dry periods have affected the Mediterranean area with dramatic impacts on water resources. Climate models are predicting further warming, with negative effects on water availability. The authors analyze the hydroclimatic tendencies of a typical Mediterranean basin, the Flumendosa basin located in Sardinia, an island in the center of the Mediterranean Sea, where in the last 30 years a sequence of dry periods has seriously impacted the water management system. Interestingly, in the historic record the annual runoff reductions have been more pronounced than the annual precipitation reductions. This paper performs an analysis that links this runoff decrease to changes in the total annual precipitation and its seasonal structure. The seasonality is a key determinant of the surface runoff process, as it reflects the degree to which rainfall is concentrated during the winter. The observed reductions in winter precipitation are shown here to be well correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.5) with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Considering the predictability of the winter NAO, there is by extension an opportunity to predict future winter precipitation and runoff tendencies. The recent hydroclimatic trends are shown to impact hydrologic design criteria for water resources planning. The authors demonstrate that there is a dangerous increase of the drought severity viewed from the perspective of water resources planning

The Effects of Solar Magnetic Activity on Electric Power Systems

Disturbances an large electric power transmission systems have been attributed to magnetic storms following solar flares. It can be shown that these magnetic disturbances are of the proper nature and magnitude to produce the documented effects on these electric systems. It is anticipated that these effects may become more serious with the greater and greater geographical spread of interconnected systems. More research and information on causal relationships is needed

Real-Time Flood Inundation Modeling With Flow Resistance Parameter Learning

Emergency response to flood plain inundations requires real-time forecasts of flow depth, velocity, and arrival time. Detailed and rapid flood inundation forecasts can be obtained from numerical solution of 2D unsteady flow equations based on high-resolution topographic data and geomorphologically informed unstructured meshes. However, flow resistance parameters representing the effects of land surface topography unresolved by digital terrain model data remain uncertain. In the present study, flow resistance parameters representing the effects of roughness, vegetation, and buildings are determined hydraulically in real-time using flow depth observations. A detailed numerical reproduction of a real flood has been largely corroborated by observations and subsequently used as a surrogate of the ground truth target. In synthetic numerical experiments, flow depth observations are obtained from a network of in-situ flow depth sensors assigned to hydraulically relevant locations in the flood plain. Starting from a generic resistance parameter set, the capability of a tandem 2D surface flow model and Bayesian optimization technique to achieve convergence to the target resistance parameter set is tested. Convergence to the target resistance parameter set was obtained with 50 or fewer tandem flow + optimization iterations for each forecasting cycle in which the difference between simulated and observed flow depths is minimized. The flood arrival time errors across a 52 km2 flood plain inundation area were reduced by 3.13 hr with respect to results obtained without optimization from a fixed range of flow resistance parameters. Performance metrics like critical success index and probability of detection reach values above 90% across the flood plain

An objective method for determining principal time scales of coherent eddy structures using orthonormal wavelets

A new, parameter-free method, based on orthonormal wavelet expansions is proposed for calculating the principal time scale of coherent structures in atmospheric surface layer measurements. These organized events play an important role in the exchange of heat, mass, and momentum between the land and the atmosphere. This global technique decomposes the energy contribution at each scale into organized and random eddy motion. The method is demonstrated on vertical wind velocity measurements above bare and vegetated surfaces. It is found to give nearly identical results to a local thresholding approach developed for signal de-noising that assigns the wavelet coecients to organized and random motion. The eect of applying anti-and/or near-symmetrical wavelet basis functions is also investigated.

Spectral distortions to momentum and scalar exchanges by non-turbulent motion and patchy landscape variability

Modifications to the spectra of turbulent velocity and scalars and co-spectra of vertical fluxes of momentum and scalars due to patchy landscape heterogeneity and non-stationarity are explored for a Mediterranean ecosystem. About 9 months of high frequency measurements of the three velocity components, water vapor concentration, carbon dioxide concentration, and air temperature were analyzed for different seasons (spring/summer) and prevalent wind directions (southeast/northwest). The two wind directions sampled a contrast of clumped and patchy landscape comprised of olive trees (southeast) and wall bounded flow disturbed by the presence of few upwind trees (northwest). The measured spectra and co-spectra were also compared to theoretical scaling forms from stationary, planar homogeneous flow, in the absence of subsidence as derived from the Kansas experiment. To assess the role of low frequency non-turbulent motion on the spectral and co-spectral content, a 5-min Fourier cutoff was introduced and the analysis was limited to near-neutral conditions where the boundary layer depth is shallow compared to its unstable counterpart. It was shown that the velocity statistics were not appreciably impacted by the low-frequency motion causing non-stationarity. Moreover, the turbulent scalar fluxes were also shown not to be significantly impacted by such low frequency motion. The scalar variances were impacted, especially the water vapor variance and its concomitant spectral shape. When the non-turbulent motion was filtered, the scalar spectra at low wavenumbers followed expectations from the so-called attached eddy hypothesis (i.e. exhibited a scaling with defining the longitudinal wavenumber) applicable for near-neutral conditions. For momentum co-spectra, the canonical shapes from the Kansas experiment appear to describe well the measurements here and in both dominant directions and seasons with some adjustment to the integral time scales based on wind direction. For the scalar co-spectra, deviations from the Kansas experiment were prevalent. The most noticeable and surprising deviations were their slow decay with increased sampling frequency at inertial subrange scales. This slow decay was shown not to contribute appreciably to the overall scalar fluxes. At those fine scales, predictions from local isotropy were expected to hold. The scalar co-spectral deviations from local isotropy were then discussed using a simplified co-spectral budget model where scalar–scalar co-spectra naturally emerged and the interplay between landscape heterogeneity and a scale-dependent pressure-scalar de-correlation time was postulated. It is also envisaged that the findings here offer a preliminary template for analyzing eddy-covariance data in situations that deviate from ideal conditions, especially regarding low-frequency modulations of scalar spectra and vertical scalar flux co-spectra

An objective method for determining principal time scales of coherent eddy structures using orthonormal wavelets

A new, parameter-free method, based on orthonormal wavelet expansions is proposed for calculating the principal time scale of coherent structures in atmospheric surface layer measurements. These organized events play an important role in the exchange of heat, mass, and momentum between the land and the atmosphere. This global technique decomposes the energy contribution at each scale into organized and random eddy motion. The method is demonstrated on vertical wind velocity measurements above bare and vegetated surfaces. It is found to give nearly identical results to a local thresholding approach developed for signal de-noising that assigns the wavelet coecients to organized and random motion. The eect of applying anti-and/or near-symmetrical wavelet basis functions is also investigated.

Climatic, Ecophysiological, and Phenological Controls on Plant Ecohydrological Strategies in Seasonally Dry Ecosystems

Large areas in the tropics and at mid-latitudes experience pronounced seasonality and inter-annual variability in rainfall and hence water availability. Despite the importance of these seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs) for the global carbon cycling and in providing ecosystem services, a unifying ecohydrological framework to interpret the effects of climatic variability on SDEs is still lacking. A synthesis of existing data about plant functional adaptations in SDEs, covering some 400 species, shows that leaf phenological variations, rather than physiological traits, provide the dominant control on plant-water-carbon interactions. Motivated by this result, the combined implications of leaf phenology and climatic variability on plant water use strategies are here explored with a minimalist model of the coupled soil water and plant carbon balances. The analyses are extended to five locations with different hydroclimatic forcing, spanning seasonally dry tropical climates (without temperature seasonality) and Mediterranean climates (exhibiting out of phase seasonal patterns of rainfall and temperature). The most beneficial leaf phenology in terms of carbon uptake depends on the climatic regime: evergreen species are favoured by short dry seasons or access to persistent water stores, whereas high inter-annual variability of rainy season duration favours the coexistence of multiple drought-deciduous phenological strategies. We conclude that drought-deciduousness may provide a competitive advantage in face of predicted declines in rainfall totals, while reduced seasonality and access to deep water stores may favour evergreen species. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA

The landscape of somatic copy-number alteration across human cancers

available in PMC 2010 August 18.A powerful way to discover key genes with causal roles in oncogenesis is to identify genomic regions that undergo frequent alteration in human cancers. Here we present high-resolution analyses of somatic copy-number alterations (SCNAs) from 3,131 cancer specimens, belonging largely to 26 histological types. We identify 158 regions of focal SCNA that are altered at significant frequency across several cancer types, of which 122 cannot be explained by the presence of a known cancer target gene located within these regions. Several gene families are enriched among these regions of focal SCNA, including the BCL2 family of apoptosis regulators and the NF-κΒ pathway. We show that cancer cells containing amplifications surrounding the MCL1 and BCL2L1 anti-apoptotic genes depend on the expression of these genes for survival. Finally, we demonstrate that a large majority of SCNAs identified in individual cancer types are present in several cancer types.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center and Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPOREs, P50CA90578)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center and Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPOREs, R01CA109038))National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center and Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPOREs, R01CA109467)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center and Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPOREs, P01CA085859)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center and Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPOREs, P01CA 098101)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center and Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPOREs, K08CA122833