Prospective validation of an 11-gene mRNA host response score for mortality risk stratification in the intensive care unit

AbstractSeveral clinical calculators predict intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, however these are cumbersome and often require 24 h of data to calculate. Retrospective studies have demonstrated the utility of whole blood transcriptomic analysis in predicting mortality. In this study, we tested prospective validation of an 11-gene messenger RNA (mRNA) score in an ICU population. Whole blood mRNA from 70 subjects in the Stanford ICU Biobank with samples collected within 24 h of Emergency Department presentation were used to calculate an 11-gene mRNA score. We found that the 11-gene score was highly associated with 60-day mortality, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.68 in all patients, 0.77 in shock patients, and 0.98 in patients whose primary determinant of prognosis was acute illness. Subjects with the highest quartile of mRNA scores were more likely to die in hospital (40% vs 7%, p &lt; 0.01) and within 60 days (40% vs 15%, p = 0.06). The 11-gene score improved prognostication with a categorical Net Reclassification Improvement index of 0.37 (p = 0.03) and an Integrated Discrimination Improvement index of 0.07 (p = 0.02) when combined with Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 or Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. The test performed poorly in the 95 independent samples collected &gt; 24 h after emergency department presentation. Tests will target a 30-min turnaround time, allowing for rapid results early in admission. Moving forward, this test may provide valuable real-time prognostic information to improve triage decisions and allow for enrichment of clinical trials.</jats:p

Association between emergency department disposition and mortality in patients with COVID‐19 acute respiratory distress syndrome

Abstract Objectives Patients hospitalized for COVID‐19 frequently develop hypoxemia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after admission. In non‐COVID‐19 ARDS studies, admission to hospital wards with subsequent transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with worse outcomes. We hypothesized that initial admission to the ward may affect outcomes in patient with COVID‐19 ARDS. Methods This was a retrospective study of consecutive adults admitted for COVID‐19 ARDS between March 2020 and March 2021 at Stanford Health Care. Mortality scores at hospital admission (Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium Mortality Score [4C score]) and ICU admission (Simplified Acute Physiology Score III [SAPS‐III]) were calculated, as well as ROX index for patients on high flow nasal oxygen. Patients were classified by emergency department (ED) disposition (ward‐first vs. ICU‐direct), and 28‐ and 60‐day mortality and highest level of respiratory support within 1 day of ICU admission were compared. A second cohort (April 2021‒July 2022, n = 129) was phenotyped to validate mortality outcome. Results A total of 157 patients were included, 48% of whom were first admitted to the ward (n = 75). Ward‐first patients had more comorbidities, including lung disease. Ward‐first patients had lower 4C and similar SAPS‐III score, yet increased mortality at 28 days (32% vs. 17%, hazard ratio [HR] 2.0, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.0‒3.7, p = 0.039) and 60 days (39% vs. 23%, HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.04‒3.22, p = 0.037) compared to ICU‐direct patients. More ward‐first patients escalated to mechanical ventilation on day 1 of ICU admission (36% vs. 14%, p = 0.002) despite similar ROX index. Ward‐first patients who upgraded to ICU within 48 h of ED presentation had the highest mortality. Mortality findings were replicated in a sensitivity analysis. Conclusion Despite similar baseline risk scores, ward‐first patients with COVID‐19 ARDS had increased mortality and escalation to mechanical ventilation compared to ICU‐direct patients. Ward‐first patients requiring ICU upgrade within 48 h were at highest risk, highlighting a need for improved identification of this group at ED admission

A generalizable 29-mRNA neural-network classifier for acute bacterial and viral infections

AbstractImproved identification of bacterial and viral infections would reduce morbidity from sepsis, reduce antibiotic overuse, and lower healthcare costs. Here, we develop a generalizable host-gene-expression-based classifier for acute bacterial and viral infections. We use training data (N = 1069) from 18 retrospective transcriptomic studies. Using only 29 preselected host mRNAs, we train a neural-network classifier with a bacterial-vs-other area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.93) and a viral-vs-other AUROC 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.93). We then apply this classifier, inflammatix-bacterial-viral-noninfected-version 1 (IMX-BVN-1), without retraining, to an independent cohort (N = 163). In this cohort, IMX-BVN-1 AUROCs are: bacterial-vs.-other 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.93), and viral-vs.-other 0.85 (95% CI 0.76–0.93). In patients enrolled within 36 h of hospital admission (N = 70), IMX-BVN-1 AUROCs are: bacterial-vs.-other 0.92 (95% CI 0.83–0.99), and viral-vs.-other 0.91 (95% CI 0.82–0.98). With further study, IMX-BVN-1 could provide a tool for assessing patients with suspected infection and sepsis at hospital admission.</jats:p

Cytokine profile in plasma of severe COVID-19 does not differ from ARDS and sepsis

Rationale: Elevated levels of inflammatory cytokines have been associated with poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients. It is unknown, however, how these levels compare to those observed in critically ill patients with ARDS or sepsis due to other causes. Objectives: To directly compare plasma levels of inflammatory cytokines, with a focus on 6 cytokines associated with cytokine storm (IL-1b, IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, and TNFα), between hospitalized COVID-19 patients and banked plasma samples from ARDS and sepsis patients from prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: 15 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 9 of whom were critically ill, were compared to 28 critically ill patients with ARDS or sepsis. There were no statistically significant differences in baseline levels of IL-1b, IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, and TNFα between patients with severe COVID-19 and critically ill controls with ARDS or sepsis. Conclusions: Levels of inflammatory cytokines IL-1b, IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, and TNFα were not higher in critically ill COVID-19 patients than in critically ill patients admitted with ARDS or sepsis due to other causes in this small cohort. Broad use of immunosuppressive therapies in ARDS has failed in numerous Phase 3 studies; use of these therapies in unselected patients with COVID-19 is likely unwarranted.</jats:p

A single-cell atlas of the peripheral immune response to severe COVID-19

ABSTRACTThere is an urgent need to better understand the pathophysiology of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. Here, we apply single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) to peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 7 patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 and 6 healthy controls. We identify substantial reconfiguration of peripheral immune cell phenotype in COVID-19, including a heterogeneous interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) signature, HLA class II downregulation, and a novel B cell-derived granulocyte population appearing in patients with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation. Importantly, peripheral monocytes and lymphocytes do not express substantial amounts of pro-inflammatory cytokines, suggesting that circulating leukocytes do not significantly contribute to the potential COVID-19 cytokine storm. Collectively, we provide the most thorough cell atlas to date of the peripheral immune response to severe COVID-19.</jats:p

Cytokine profile in plasma of severe COVID-19 does not differ from ARDS and sepsis

BACKGROUND Elevated levels of inflammatory cytokines have been associated with poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients. It is unknown, however, how these levels compare with those observed in critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) or sepsis due to other causes.METHODS We used a Luminex assay to determine expression of 76 cytokines from plasma of hospitalized COVID-19 patients and banked plasma samples from ARDS and sepsis patients. Our analysis focused on detecting statistical differences in levels of 6 cytokines associated with cytokine storm (IL-1β, IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, and TNF-α) between patients with moderate COVID-19, severe COVID-19, and ARDS or sepsis.RESULTS Fifteen hospitalized COVID-19 patients, 9 of whom were critically ill, were compared with critically ill patients with ARDS (n = 12) or sepsis (n = 16). There were no statistically significant differences in baseline levels of IL-1β, IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-8, IL-18, and TNF-α between patients with COVID-19 and critically ill controls with ARDS or sepsis.CONCLUSION Levels of inflammatory cytokines were not higher in severe COVID-19 patients than in moderate COVID-19 or critically ill patients with ARDS or sepsis in this small cohort. Broad use of immunosuppressive therapies in ARDS has failed in numerous Phase 3 studies; use of these therapies in unselected patients with COVID-19 may be unwarranted.FUNDING Funding was received from NHLBI K23 HL125663 (AJR); The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1113682 (AJR and CAB); Burroughs Wellcome Fund Investigators in the Pathogenesis of Infectious Diseases #1016687 NIH/NIAID U19AI057229-16; Stanford Maternal Child Health Research Institute; and Chan Zuckerberg Biohub (CAB)

Autoantibodies targeting cytokines and connective tissue disease autoantigens are common in acute non-SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Abstract The widespread presence of autoantibodies in acute infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is increasingly recognized, but the prevalence of autoantibodies in infections with organisms other than SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been reported. We used protein arrays to profile IgG autoantibodies from 317 samples from 268 patients across a spectrum of non-SARS-CoV-2 infections, many of whom were critically ill with pneumonia. Anti-cytokine antibodies (ACA) were identified in &gt; 50% of patients infected with non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses and other pathogens, including patients with pneumonia attributed to bacterial causes. In cell-based functional assays, some ACA blocked binding to surface receptors for type I interferons (Type I IFN), granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), and interleukin-6 (IL-6). Autoantibodies against traditional autoantigens associated with connective tissue diseases (CTDs) were also commonly observed in these cohorts, including newly-detected antibodies that emerged in longitudinal samples from patients infected with influenza. We conclude that autoantibodies, some of which are functionally active, may be much more prevalent than previously appreciated in patients who are symptomatically infected with diverse pathogens.</jats:p