Debt, delinquencies, and consumer spending

The sharp rise in household debt and delinquency rates over the last year has led to speculation that consumers will soon revert to more cautious spending behavior. Yet an analysis of the past relationship between household liabilities and expenditures provides little support for this view.Consumption (Economics) ; Consumer credit ; Bank loans

What investment patterns across equipment and industries tell us about the recent investment boom and bust

A study of capital expenditure trends identifies investment in information technology as a major factor in the 1990s boom and subsequent bust. Spending on computers and software, fueled by Y2K preparations and the rise of the Internet, drove investment growth in the late 1990s but slowed in 2000, while overly optimistic profit expectations by communications industries likely prompted an unsustainable investment surge in 2000.Capital investments ; Information technology ; Telecommunication

The impact of individual retirement accounts on savings

Bills to expand individual retirement accounts have been introduced in both houses of Congress this year. While proponents argue that these accounts can help reverse the nation's declining saving rate, recent economic research suggests that the effect of the accounts on savings is in fact quite small.Individual retirement accounts ; Saving and investment

Are home prices the next "bubble"?

The strong rise in home prices since the mid-1990s has raised concerns over a possible bubble in the housing market and the effect of a sharp price decline on the U.S. economy. This article assesses two measures frequently cited to support a bubble-the rising price-to-income ratio and the declining rent-to-price ratio-and finds the measures to be flawed and the conclusions drawn from them unpersuasive. In particular, the measures do not fully account for the effects of declining nominal mortgage interest rates and fail to use appropriate home price indexes. The authors also estimate a structural model of the housing market and find that aggregate prices are not inconsistent with long-run demand fundamentals. Accordingly, they conclude that market fundamentals are strong enough to explain the recent path of home prices and that no bubble exists. Nevertheless, weakening fundamentals could have an impact on home values on the east and west coasts, where the new housing supply appears to be relatively inelastic. However, prices in these regions have typically been volatile, and previous declines have not had a sizable negative effect on the overall economy.Housing - Prices ; Housing - Finance ; Business cycles

Monetary policy transmission to residential investment

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionMonetary policy ; Housing - Finance ; Mortgages

Neurosystems: brain rhythms and cognitive processing

Neuronal rhythms are ubiquitous features of brain dynamics, and are highly correlated with cognitive processing. However, the relationship between the physiological mechanisms producing these rhythms and the functions associated with the rhythms remains mysterious. This article investigates the contributions of rhythms to basic cognitive computations (such as filtering signals by coherence and/or frequency) and to major cognitive functions (such as attention and multi-modal coordination). We offer support to the premise that the physiology underlying brain rhythms plays an essential role in how these rhythms facilitate some cognitive operations.098352 - Wellcome Trust; 5R01NS067199 - NINDS NIH HH

Inventory dynamics and business cycles: What has changed?

By historical standards, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of remarkable stability since the mid-1980s. One explanation attributes the diminished variability of economic activity to information-technology-led improvements in inventory management. Our results, however, indicate that the changes in inventory dynamics since the mid-1980s played a reinforcing—rather than a leading—role in the volatility reduction. A decomposition of the reduction in the volatility of manufacturing output shows that it almost entirely reflects a decline in the variance of the growth contribution of shipments. And although the volatility of total inventory investment has fallen, the decline occurred well before the mid-1980s and was driven by the reduced variability of materials and supplies. Our analysis does show that since the mid-1980s, inventory dynamics have played a role in stabilizing manufacturing production: Inventory 'imbalances' are corrected more rapidly, and the quicker response of inventories to aggregate shocks—at all stages of fabrication—buffers production from fluctuations in sales to a greater extent. But more extensive production smoothing and faster dissolution of inventory imbalances appear to be a consequence of changes in the way industry-level sales and aggregate economic activity respond to shocks, rather than a cause of changes in macroeconomic behavior

The Prevalence and Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer Surgery in the Very Elderly

Introduction: Sixty percent of all colorectal cancer patients in the UK undergo major surgery. Of these, 22% of patients are aged 80 years or older. Historically there has been a tendency to exclude very old patients from entering clinical trials (not just those within surgery), making evidence based clinical decision making more challenging [3]. It is difficult, therefore, to accurately guide this group of patients who have been assessed as fit for surgery. This is the first study to assess the outcomes for all older patients with colorectal cancer, regardless of whether they underwent surgical intervention or not. Results: Clinical case notes and electronic patients records were retrospectively reviewed for all patients admitted to North Bristol NHS Trust over a five-year period (January 2009 to February 2014). Patients presenting with a new diagnosis of colorectal cancer were identified. All patients aged 85 years and over were included in the study. Patients were stratified by clinical management strategy i.e. operative or non-operative management of their colorectal cancer. Primary outcome measure was overall survival. Methods: There were 199 patients included in the study, 50.8% (101) were male. Median age of all patients was 88 years (range 85-97 years) and 47% of all patients underwent surgery. More than half (57%) underwent right-sided resections (including hepatic flexure). Overall mean survival for non acute presentations of colorectal cancer were longer in both the operative group and non operative groups (p = 0.007 and p = 0.03 respectively). There was no difference between mean survival in patients presenting as acute surgical emergencies irrespective of operative or non-operative management (p = 0.31). Conclusion: A third of patients with colorectal cancer present as an acute surgical emergency. For this group of patients prognosis is poor and there does not appear to be a survival benefit in undergoing surgical resection

Depression in children/adolescents

This issue of eMedRef provides information to clinicians on the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and therapeutics of depression in children and adolescents