A report on the Department of Health ‘Walking Cities’ initiative in Birmingham, Cambridge, Leeds and Bradford, Norwich and Manchester

Overview This report on the five ‘Walking Cities’ was commissioned by Beelin Baxter, Senior Physical Activity Policy Officer at the Department of Health (DH). The aim was to synthesise the findings from the reports submitted to DH, highlight innovative practice and to enable learning for the future. This report was written by Sarah Hanson, Research Associate and Professor Andy Jones, both from the Norwich Medical School at the University of East Anglia. Executive summary and recommendations The Department of Health funded five ‘Walking Cities’ in 2013 – 2015 to develop walking initiatives. There was great variety in the projects and evidence of much activity. The aim was also to target the particularly inactive and those who were less well socially situated. Whilst there are useful transferable lessons to be learned from this project, the poor reporting did not allow the assessment of how well aims were achieved. Where baseline measurements were recorded it appeared that participants were already physically active. Where interventions were particularly successful, they built on ‘grass-roots’ community assets already in existence which took them to the heart of a community. The use of community based assets was particularly important in accessing those who are harder to reach and hence the learnings from this programme support assessing and utilising the assets in a community. There were attempts to work with health professionals with direct referrals into the walking interventions. This met with very limited success and continues to represent a major missed opportunity in reaching those who are the most inactive and in poorest health. Due to the poor project reporting the mandated and full use of the Standard Evaluation Framework for Physical Activity is recommended for the future. There was limited outcomes reporting and this limited our evaluation of how successful the programme was at increasing physical activity. We would make the following two recommendations. Firstly, that the Standard Evaluation Framework for Physical Activity is mandated for future work and that practitioners are trained in how to use it. Secondly, we would recommend that we need to understand the missed opportunity of direct referrals from health professionals; why this is the case and why health professionals do not refer to walking interventions, such as group walks

Another 'futile quest'? A simulation study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort model

Background: Whilst some argue that a solution to the age-period-cohort (APC) 'identification problem' is impossible, numerous methodological solutions have been proposed, including Yang and Land's Hierarchical-APC (HAPC) model: a multilevel model considering periods and cohorts as cross-classified contexts in which individuals exist. Objective: To assess the assumptions made by the HAPC model, and the situations in which it does and does not work. Methods: Simulation study. Simulation scenarios assess the effect of (a) cohort trends in the Data Generating Process (DGP) (compared to only random variation), and (b) grouping cohorts (in both DGP and fitted model). Results: The model only works if either (a) we can assume that there are no linear (or non-linear) trends in periods or cohorts, (b) we control any cohort trend in the model's fixed part and assume there is no period trend, or (c) we group cohorts in such a way that they exactly match the groupings in the (unknown) DGP. Otherwise, the model can arbitrarily reapportion APC effects, radically impacting interpretation. Conclusions: Since the purpose of APC analysis is often to ascertain the presence of period and/or cohort trends, and since we rarely have solid (if any) theory regarding cohort groupings, there are few circumstances in which this model achieves what Yang and Land claim it can. The results bring into question findings of several published studies using the HAPC model. However, the structure of the model remains a conceptual advance that is useful when we can assume the DGP has no period trends

Fiscal illusion and cyclical government expenditure: State government expenditure in the United States

© 2016 Scottish Economic Society. A well-established literature argues that fiscal illusion increases the level of government expenditure. This article focuses on the proposition that fiscal illusion also influences the cyclicality of government expenditure. Predictions are formed with reference to government reliance on high income elasticities of indirect tax revenues and on intergovernmental transfers. Predictions are tested with reference to the expenditures of 36 states in the United States from 1980 to 2000. Government expenditures are more likely to be procyclical when citizens systematically underestimate the cost of taxation

An sl_n stable homotopy type for matched diagrams

There exists a simplified Bar-Natan Khovanov complex for open 2-braids. The Khovanov cohomology of a knot diagram made by gluing tangles of this type is therefore often amenable to calculation. We lift this idea to the level of the Lipshitz-Sarkar stable homotopy type and use it to make new computations. Similarly, there exists a simplified Khovanov-Rozansky sl_n complex for open 2-braids with oppositely oriented strands and an even number of crossings. Diagrams made by gluing tangles of this type are called matched diagrams, and knots admitting matched diagrams are called bipartite knots. To a pair consisting of a matched diagram and a choice of integer n >= 2, we associate a stable homotopy type. In the case n = 2 this agrees with the Lipshitz-Sarkar stable homotopy type of the underlying knot. In the case n >= 3 the cohomology of the stable homotopy type agrees with the sl_n Khovanov-Rozansky cohomology of the underlying knot. We make some consistency checks of this sl_n stable homotopy type and show that it exhibits interesting behaviour. For example we find a CP^2 in the sl_3 type for some diagram, and show that the sl_4 type can be interesting for a diagram for which the Lipshitz-Sarkar type is a wedge of Moore spaces.Comment: 62 pages, color figure

The 2009 analysis of information remaining on USB storage devices offered for sale on the second hand market

The use of the USB storage device, also known as the USB drive, a thumb drive, a keychain drive and a flash drive has, for the most part, replaced the floppy disk and to some extent the Compact Disk (CD), the DVD (Digital Video Disk or Digital Versatile Disk) and the external hard disk. Their robustness, size and weight make them easy to transport, but also to lose or misplace. They are inexpensive and are often given away as promotional items by organisations. Over the last few years there has been a dramatic increase in the storage capacity of these devices, going from a few tens of megabytes to a current capacity of around 64 gigabytes (equal to around 13 DVDs). The larger capacity and continued low cost has vastly increased the potential uses of the devices and also the volumes and types of data that they may contain

Economic and labour market implications of climate change on the tourism sector of the Maltese Islands

This paper reviews threats to, and consequences of, current climate and environmental change on tourism destinations. The paper reviews recent published research on the impacts of climate and environmental change and consequences of such on the physical social and economic character of tourism operations using the Maltese Islands as a case. The validity and practicality of management options to tackle the complex nature and juxtaposition between tourism growth, climate and environment change and tourism destination management are considered, including an evaluation of management responses, the efficacy of local governance and consequent policy options and choices. The research methodology is focused upon a qualitative evaluation of contextual issues utilising media analysis techniques from case studies drawn from the immediate locality of the study area. These are used to highlight and illustrate particular sensitive issues and points for contention and how these in turn might relate to tourism in Malta and its future prospects. Conclusions from the research demonstrate and discuss the efficacy of current predictions and how tourism infrastructure and destination management issues should be tailored to more strategic policy responses from all key tourism and environmental stakeholders in both the private and public sectors. In this respect the paper highlights the current impasse between public perception and policy implementation which, to date, largely continues to ignore immediate threats and thus fails to provide adequate strategic management responses or responsible governance. In conclusion strategic and combined management strategies are considered and advocated for managing tourism destinations and for addressing the increasing demands from the often complex tiers of stakeholder groups that are represented. In this context implications are further drawn for the future prospects for tourism within the Maltese Islands. These specifically relate to changing demands to tourism employment, tourism product and service growth, tourism capital investment, tourism competitiveness and tourism skills and educational development.peer-reviewe