Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics

Evidence-Based Skin Champion Program Reduces Pressure Injuries in a Pediatric Hospital

Prevention of pressure injuries (PIs) in pediatric patients is an important nurse-sensitive quality goal. The PI rate at a large urban pediatric hospital triggered a call to action by the Chief Nursing Officer to establish a Hospital Acquired PI (HAPI) Task Force which identified the Skin Champion program as a key improvement strategy. The goals of the Skin Champion program are to lower the rate of HAPIs, empower front line care providers to implement evidence-based care bundles, achieve consistency of practice, and provide resource availability at the point of care. The implementation of the Skin Champion quality improvement program achieved an 85% reduction in severe harm and “reportable HAPI incidence, which is lower than the HAPI national average in pediatric patients (Solutions for Patient Safety, 2018), and an increase in nurse compliance with the HAPI prevention bundle. The HAPI incidence rate has remained near 0.05 per 1000 patient days

Investigation of phase separation within the generalized Lin-Taylor model for a binary liquid mixture of large hexagonal and small triangular particles

The generalized Lin-Taylor model defined on the hexagonal lattice is used to investigate the phase separation in an asymmetric binary liquid mixture consisting of large A (hexagons) and small B (triangles) particles. By considering interaction energies between A-A and A-B pairs of particles that occupy nearest-neighbour cells of the hexagonal lattice, we have derived an exact solution for the considered model system having established a mapping correspondence with the two-dimensional Ising model on its dual triangular lattice. Altogether, six different types of coexistence curves including those with reentrant miscibility regions (i.e. closed-loop coexistence curves) were found in dependence on the relative strength between both coupling constants.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, presented at 7th Liblice conference on the Statistical Mechanics of Liquids to be held in Lednice on June 11-16, 200

Linear Estimation of Location and Scale Parameters Using Partial Maxima

Consider an i.i.d. sample X^*_1,X^*_2,...,X^*_n from a location-scale family, and assume that the only available observations consist of the partial maxima (or minima)sequence, X^*_{1:1},X^*_{2:2},...,X^*_{n:n}, where X^*_{j:j}=max{X^*_1,...,X^*_j}. This kind of truncation appears in several circumstances, including best performances in athletics events. In the case of partial maxima, the form of the BLUEs (best linear unbiased estimators) is quite similar to the form of the well-known Lloyd's (1952, Least-squares estimation of location and scale parameters using order statistics, Biometrika, vol. 39, pp. 88-95) BLUEs, based on (the sufficient sample of) order statistics, but, in contrast to the classical case, their consistency is no longer obvious. The present paper is mainly concerned with the scale parameter, showing that the variance of the partial maxima BLUE is at most of order O(1/log n), for a wide class of distributions.Comment: This article is devoted to the memory of my six-years-old, little daughter, Dionyssia, who leaved us on August 25, 2010, at Cephalonia isl. (26 pages, to appear in Metrika

The Full Two-Loop R-parity Violating Renormalization Group Equations for All Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model Couplings

We present the full two-loop $\beta$-functions for the minimal supersymmetric standard model couplings, extended to include R-parity violating couplings through explicit R-parity violation

Control over phase separation and nucleation using a laser-tweezing potential

Control over the nucleation of new phases is highly desirable but elusive. Even though there is a long history of crystallization engineering by varying physicochemical parameters, controlling which polymorph crystallizes or whether a molecule crystallizes or forms an amorphous precipitate is still a poorly understood practice. Although there are now numerous examples of control using laser-induced nucleation, the absence of physical understanding is preventing progress. Here we show that the proximity of a liquid–liquid critical point or the corresponding binodal line can be used by a laser-tweezing potential to induce concentration gradients. A simple theoretical model shows that the stored electromagnetic energy of the laser beam produces a free-energy potential that forces phase separation or triggers the nucleation of a new phase. Experiments in a liquid mixture using a low-power laser diode confirm the effect. Phase separation and nucleation using a laser-tweezing potential explains the physics behind non-photochemical laser-induced nucleation and suggests new ways of manipulating matter

Light MSSM Higgs boson mass to three-loop accuracy

The light CP even Higgs boson mass, Mh, is calculated to three-loop accuracy within the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The result is expressed in terms of DRbar parameters and implemented in the computer program H3m. The calculation is based on the proper approximations and their combination in various regions of the parameter space. The three-loop effects to Mh are typically of the order of a few hundred MeV and opposite in sign to the two-loop corrections. The remaining theory uncertainty due to higher order perturbative corrections is estimated to be less than 1 GeV.Comment: 39 pages, 13 figures. v2: minor changes, typos fixe

A Tunable Two-impurity Kondo system in an atomic point contact

Two magnetic atoms, one attached to the tip of a Scanning Tunneling Microscope (STM) and one adsorbed on a metal surface, each constituting a Kondo system, have been proposed as one of the simplest conceivable systems potentially exhibiting quantum critical behaviour. We have succeeded in implementing this concept experimentally for cobalt dimers clamped between an STM tip and a gold surface. Control of the tip-sample distance with sub-picometer resolution allows us to tune the interaction between the two cobalt atoms with unprecedented precision. Electronic transport measurements on this two-impurity Kondo system reveal a rich physical scenario which is governed by a crossover from local Kondo screening to non-local singlet formation due to antiferromagnetic coupling as a function of separation of the cobalt atoms.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figure

An extracellular steric seeding mechanism for Eph-ephrin signaling platform assembly

Erythropoetin-producing hepatoma (Eph) receptors are cell-surface protein tyrosine kinases mediating cell-cell communication. Upon activation, they form signaling clusters. We report crystal structures of the full ectodomain of human EphA2 (eEphA2) both alone and in complex with the receptor-binding domain of the ligand ephrinA5 (ephrinA5 RBD). Unliganded eEphA2 forms linear arrays of staggered parallel receptors involving two patches of residues conserved across A-class Ephs. eEphA2-ephrinA5 RBD forms a more elaborate assembly, whose interfaces include the same conserved regions on eEphA2, but rearranged to accommodate ephrinA5 RBD. Cell-surface expression of mutant EphA2s showed that these interfaces are critical for localization at cell-cell contacts and activation-dependent degradation. Our results suggest a 'nucleation' mechanism whereby a limited number of ligand-receptor interactions 'seed' an arrangement of receptors which can propagate into extended signaling arrays