Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

One way or another? Criminal investigators' beliefs regarding the disclosure of evidence in interviews with suspects in England and Wales

The research base concerning interviews with suspects remains to be comprehensively developed. For example, the extant literature provides differing views regarding how best to undertake the important interview task of disclosing evidence. In the current study, using a self-report questionnaire, 224 investigators based in England and Wales were asked as to their own preferred methods. Most respondents advocated a gradual method of disclosing evidence, stating that this approach would better reveal inconsistencies and obtain a complete version of events (similar to the reasoning of those who preferred disclosing evidence later). Those who advocated revealing evidence early stated this approach would more likely elicit confessions. Several respondents would not commit to one single method, arguing that their chosen strategy was contextually dependent. The study’s findings suggest that it remains arguable as to whether there is one best approach to evidence disclosure and/or whether particular circumstances should influence interviewing strategies

Recent Results from the VERITAS Collaboration

A decade after the discovery of TeV gamma-rays from the blazar Mrk 421 (Punch et al. 1992), the list of TeV blazars has increased to five BL Lac objects: Mrk 421 (Punch et al. 1992; Petry et al. 1996; Piron et al. 2001), Mrk 501 (Quinn et al. 1996; Aharonian et al. 1999; Djannati-Atai et al. 1999), 1ES2344+514 (Catanese et al. 1998), H1426+428 (Horan et al. 2000, 2002; Aharonian et al. 2002; Djannati-Atai et al. 2002) and 1ES1959+650 (Nishiyama et al. 1999; Konopelko et al. 2002; Holder et al. 2002). In this paper we report results from recent observations of Mrk 421, H1426+428 and 1ES1959+650 using the Whipple Observatory 10 m telescope

Are All Placebo Effects Equal? Placebo Pills, Sham Acupuncture, Cue Conditioning and Their Association

Placebo treatments and healing rituals have been used to treat pain throughout history. The present within-subject crossover study examines the variability in individual responses to placebo treatment with verbal suggestion and visual cue conditioning by investigating whether responses to different types of placebo treatment, as well as conditioning responses, correlate with one another. Secondarily, this study also examines whether responses to sham acupuncture correlate with responses to genuine acupuncture. Healthy subjects were recruited to participate in two sequential experiments. Experiment one is a five-session crossover study. In each session, subjects received one of four treatments: placebo pills (described as Tylenol), sham acupuncture, genuine acupuncture, or no treatment rest control condition. Before and after each treatment, paired with a verbal suggestion of positive effect, each subject's pain threshold, pain tolerance, and pain ratings to calibrated heat pain were measured. At least 14 days after completing experiment one, all subjects were invited to participate in experiment two, during which their analgesic responses to conditioned visual cues were tested. Forty-eight healthy subjects completed experiment one, and 45 completed experiment two. The results showed significantly different effects of genuine acupuncture, placebo pill and rest control on pain threshold. There was no significant association between placebo pills, sham acupuncture and cue conditioning effects, indicating that individuals may respond to unique healing rituals in different ways. This outcome suggests that placebo response may be a complex behavioral phenomenon that has properties that comprise a state, rather than a trait characteristic. This could explain the difficulty of detecting a signature for “placebo responders.” However, a significant association was found between the genuine and sham acupuncture treatments, implying that the non-specific effects of acupuncture may contribute to the analgesic effect observed in genuine acupuncture analgesia.National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (U.S.) (R01AT005280

Timing of host feeding drives rhythms in parasite replication

Circadian rhythms enable organisms to synchronise the processes underpinning survival and reproduction to anticipate daily changes in the external environment. Recent work shows that daily (circadian) rhythms also enable parasites to maximise fitness in the context of ecological interactions with their hosts. Because parasite rhythms matter for their fitness, understanding how they are regulated could lead to innovative ways to reduce the severity and spread of diseases. Here, we examine how host circadian rhythms influence rhythms in the asexual replication of malaria parasites. Asexual replication is responsible for the severity of malaria and fuels transmission of the disease, yet, how parasite rhythms are driven remains a mystery. We perturbed feeding rhythms of hosts by 12 hours (i.e. diurnal feeding in nocturnal mice) to desynchronise the hosts' peripheral oscillators from the central, light-entrained oscillator in the brain and their rhythmic outputs. We demonstrate that the rhythms of rodent malaria parasites in day-fed hosts become inverted relative to the rhythms of parasites in night-fed hosts. Our results reveal that the hosts' peripheral rhythms (associated with the timing of feeding and metabolism), but not rhythms driven by the central, light-entrained circadian oscillator in the brain, determine the timing (phase) of parasite rhythms. Further investigation reveals that parasite rhythms correlate closely with blood glucose rhythms. In addition, we show that parasite rhythms resynchronise to the altered host feeding rhythms when food availability is shifted, which is not mediated through rhythms in the host immune system. Our observations suggest that parasites actively control their developmental rhythms. Finally, counter to expectation, the severity of disease symptoms expressed by hosts was not affected by desynchronisation of their central and peripheral rhythms. Our study at the intersection of disease ecology and chronobiology opens up a new arena for studying host-parasite-vector coevolution and has broad implications for applied bioscience

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRI) Antidepressants in Pregnancy and Congenital Anomalies: Analysis of Linked Databases in Wales, Norway and Funen, Denmark

Background: Hypothesised associations between in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and congenital anomalies, particularly congenital heart defects (CHD), remain controversial. We investigated the putative teratogenicity of SSRI prescription in the 91 days either side of first day of last menstrual period (LMP). Methods and Findings: Three population-based EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries- Norway (2004–2010), Wales (2000–2010) and Funen, Denmark (2000–2010)—were linked to the electronic healthcare databases holding prospectively collected prescription information for all pregnancies in the timeframes available. We included 519,117 deliveries, including foetuses terminated for congenital anomalies, with data covering pregnancy and the preceding quarter, including 462,641 with data covering pregnancy and one year either side. For SSRI exposures 91 days either side of LMP, separately and together, odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (ORs, 95%CI) for all major anomalies were estimated. We also explored: pausing or discontinuing SSRIs preconception, confounding, high dose regimens, and, in Wales, diagnosis of depression. Results were combined in meta-analyses. SSRI prescription 91 days either side of LMP was associated with increased prevalence of severe congenital heart defects (CHD) (as defined by EUROCAT guide 1.3, 2005) (34/12,962 [0.26%] vs. 865/506,155 [0.17%] OR 1.50, 1.06–2.11), and the composite adverse outcome of 'anomaly or stillbirth' (473/12962, 3.65% vs. 15829/506,155, 3.13%, OR 1.13, 1.03–1.24). The increased prevalence of all major anomalies combined did not reach statistical significance (3.09% [400/12,962] vs. 2.67% [13,536/506,155] OR 1.09, 0.99–1.21). Adjusting for socio-economic status left ORs largely unchanged. The prevalence of anomalies and severe CHD was reduced when SSRI prescriptions were stopped or paused preconception, and increased when >1 prescription was recorded, but differences were not statistically significant. The dose-response relationship between severe CHD and SSRI dose (meta-regression OR 1.49, 1.12–1.97) was consistent with SSRI-exposure related risk. Analyses in Wales suggested no associations between anomalies and diagnosed depression. Conclusion: The additional absolute risk of teratogenesis associated with SSRIs, if causal, is small. However, the high prevalence of SSRI use augments its public health importance, justifying modifications to preconception care

A compilation of surface inherent optical properties and phytoplankton pigment concentrations from the Atlantic Meridional Transect

In situ measurements of particulate inherent optical properties (IOPs) – absorption (ap(λ)), scattering (bp(λ)), and beam attenuation (cp(λ)) – are crucial for the development of optical algorithms that retrieve biogeochemical quantities such as chlorophyll a, particulate organic carbon (POC), and total suspended matter (TSM). Here we present a compilation of particulate absorption–attenuation spectrophotometric data measured underway on nine Atlantic Meridional Transect (AMT) cruises between 50° N and 50° S from 2009–2019. The compilation includes coincident high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) phytoplankton pigment concentrations, which are used to calibrate transects of total chlorophyll a (Tot_Chl_a) concentrations derived from the ap(λ) line-height method. The IOP data are processed using a consistent methodology and include propagated uncertainties for each IOP variable, uncertainty quantification for the Tot_Chl_a concentrations based on HPLC match-ups, application of consistent quality-control filters, and standardization of output data fields and formats. The total IOP dataset consists of ∼310 000 measurements at a 1 min binning (∼270 000 hyper-spectral) and >700 coincident HPLC pigment surface samples (∼600 of which are coincident with hyper-spectral IOPs). We present the geographic variation in the IOPs, HPLC phytoplankton pigments, and ap-derived Tot_Chl_a concentrations which are shown to have uncertainties between 8 % and 20 %. Additionally, to stimulate further investigation of accessory pigment extraction from ap(λ), we quantify pigment correlation matrices and identify spectral characteristics of end-member ap(λ) spectra, where accessory pigment groupings are present in higher concentrations relative to Tot_Chl_a. All data are made publicly available in SeaBASS and NetCDF formats via the following links: https://seabass.gsfc.nasa.gov/archive/PML/AMT (Jordan et al., 2025a) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12527954 (Jordan et al., 2024)

A case of penile fracture with complete urethral disruption during sexual intercourse: a case report

Penile fracture is a rare condition. Primarily it is a rupture of the corpus cavernosum that occurs when the penis is erect. The rupture can also affect the corpus spongiosum and the urethra. We report a case of a 37 year old man who presented with acute penile pain, penile swelling and the inability to pass urine after a blunt trauma during sexual intercourse. In emergency surgery we found bilateral partial rupture of the corpus cavernosum with complete urethral and corpus spongiosum disruption. In the one year follow up the patient presented with normal erectile and voiding function. Emergency surgical repair in penile fracture can preserve erectile and voiding function

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Primary peritoneal and ovarian cancers: an epidemiological comparative analysis

We performed case–control analyses using data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study to determine risk factors that distinguish primary peritoneal cancer (PPC) from epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Our risk factor analyses were restricted to invasive serous cancers including 495 EOC cases, 62 PPC cases and 1,086 control women. Logistic regression analyses were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factor associations. Although many case–control associations for the invasive serous PPC cases were similar to those of the invasive serous EOC cases, some differences were observed including a twofold increase in risk of invasive serous PPC in women who were ≥35 years at last pregnancy, whereas a decreased risk was observed for invasive serous EOC risk. We could not confirm a previous report of an association between tubal ligation and PPC, a factor consistently associated with a decreased risk of EOC. The difference in the risk factor associations between invasive serous PPC and EOC cancers suggests divergent molecular development of peritoneal and ovarian cancers. A larger study to determine risk factors for invasive serous PPC is warranted