Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy

National accounts data are always revised. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back can be revised substantially. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central bank's information set is flawed for a long period of time. In this paper we present a data base consisting of various vintages of real-time data from 1993Q1 to 2003Q4. We describe the nature of the data revisions, the causes of the revisions, and investigate whether the revisions are true martingale differences, or whether they can be forecasted. In the spirit of Orphanides and van Norden (2002), we analyze how data revisions and model uncertainty affect the reliability of output gap estimates. We also compare Taylor type interest rate rules based on real-time data versus final data and assess the consequences for monetary policy if policy was conducted using this type of interest rate rules. Finally, we analyze the implications of output gap uncertainty for monetary policy using a small New Keynesian macroeconomic model. --Monetary policy,output gap,real-time data,interest rate rules

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

The output gap (measuring the deviation of output from its potential) is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. The output gap is also an important variable in itself, as a measure of economic fluctuations. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. The multivariate measures of the output gap have by far the best predictive power. This is in particular interesting, as they use information from data that are not revised in real time. We therefore compare the predictive power of alternative indicators that are less revised in real time, such as the unemployment rate and other business cycle indicators. Some of the alternative indicators do as well, or better, than the multivariate output gaps in predicting inflation. As uncertainties are particularly pronounced at the end of the calculation periods, assessment of pressures in the economy based on the uncertain output gap could benefit from being supplemented with alternative indicators that are less revised in real time.Output gap, real time indicators, forecasting, Phillips curve

NGC 4138 - A Case Study in Counterrotating Disk Formation

The Sa(r) galaxy NGC 4138 has been recently found to contain an extensive counterrotating disk which appears to be still forming. Up to a third of the stars in the disk system may be on retrograde orbits. A counterrotating ring of H II regions, along with extended counterrotating H I gas, suggests that the retrograde material has been recently acquired in the gas phase and is still trickling in. Using numerical simulations, we have attempted to model the process by which the counterrotating mass has been accreted by this galaxy. We investigate two possibilities: continuous retrograde infall of gas, and a retrograde merger with a gas-rich dwarf galaxy. Both processes are successful in producing a counterrotating disk of the observed mass and dimensions without heating up the primary significantly. Contrary to our experience with a fiducial cold, thin primary disk, the gas-rich merger works well for the massive, compact primary disk of NGC 4138 even though the mass of the dwarf galaxy is a significant fraction of the mass of the primary disk. Although we have restricted ourselves mainly to coplanar infall and mergers, we report on one inclined infall simulation as well. We also explore the possibility that the H-alpha ring seen in the inner half of the disk is a consequence of counterrotating gas clouds colliding with corotating gas already present in the disk and forming stars in the process.Comment: To appear in ApJ, 21 pages, LaTeX (aaspp4) format, 17 figs (gzipped tar file) also available at ftp://bessel.mps.ohio-state.edu/pub/thakar/cr2/ or at http://www-astronomy.mps.ohio-state.edu/~thakar

Two-Stream Instability of Counter-Rotating Galaxies

The present study of the two-stream instability in stellar disks with counter-rotating components of stars and/or gas is stimulated by recently discovered counter-rotating spiral and S0 galaxies. Strong linear two-stream instability of tightly-wrapped spiral waves is found for one and two-armed waves with the pattern angular speed of the unstable waves always intermediate between the angular speed of the co-rotating matter ($+\Omega$) and that of the counter-rotating matter ($-\Omega$). The instability arises from the interaction of positive and negative energy modes in the co- and counter-rotating components. The unstable waves are in general convective - they move in radius and radial wavenumber space - with the result that amplification of the advected wave is more important than the local growth rate. For a galaxy of co-rotating stars and counter-rotating stars of mass-fraction $\xi_* < {1\over 2}$, or of counter-rotating gas of mass-fraction $\xi_g < {1\over 2}$, the largest amplification is usually for the one-armed leading waves (with respect to the co-rotating stars). For the case of both counter-rotating stars and gas, the largest amplifications are for $\xi_*+\xi_g \approx {1\over 2}$, also for one-armed leading waves. The two-armed trailing waves usually have smaller amplifications. The growth rates and amplifications all decrease as the velocity spreads of the stars and/or gas increase. It is suggested that the spiral waves can provide an effective viscosity for the gas causing its accretion.Comment: 14 pages, submitted to ApJ. One table and 17 figures can be obtained by sending address to R. Lovelace at [email protected]

Kinematic Evidence of Minor Mergers in Normal Sa Galaxies: NGC3626, NGC3900, NGC4772 and NGC5854

BVRI and H-alpha imaging and long-slit optical spectroscopic data are presented for four morphologically normal and relatively isolated Sa galaxies, NGC3626, NGC3900, NGC4772 and NGC5854. VLA HI synthesis imaging is presented for the first 3 objects. In all 4 galaxies, evidence of kinematic decoupling of ionized gas components is found; the degree and circumstances of the distinct kinematics vary from complete counterrotation of all of the gas from all of the stars (NGC3626) to nuclear gas disks decoupled from the stars (NGC5854) to anomalous velocity central gas components (NGC3900 and NGC4772). In the 3 objects mapped in HI, the neutral gas extends far beyond the optical radius, R_HI/R_25 > 2. In general, the HI surface density is very low and the outer HI is patchy and asymmetric or found in a distinct ring, exterior to the optical edge. While the overall HI velocity fields are dominated by circular motions, strong warps are suggested in the outer regions. Optical imaging is also presented for NGC 4138 previously reported by Jore et al. (1996) to show counterrotating stellar components. The multiwavelength evidence is interpreted in terms of the kinematic "memory" of past minor mergers in objects that otherwise exhibit no morphological signs of interaction.Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in Astron. J., postscript figures available at ftp://culebra.tn.cornell.edu/pub/haynes/figures.tar.g

Compact Ring for the ThomX-ray Source

THPE060International audienceOne advantage of X-ray sources based on Compton Back Scattering (CBS) processes is that such compact machines can produce an intense flux of monochromatic X-rays. CBS results from collisions between laser pulses and relativistic electron bunches. Aiming at high X-ray flux, one possible configuration combining a low emittance linear accelerator with a compact storage ring and a high gain laser cavity has been adopted by the ThomX project. We present here the main ring lattice characteristics in terms of baseline optics, possible other tunings such as low or negative momentum compaction, and orbit correction schemes. In addition, non-linear beam dynamics aspects including fringe field components as well as higher multipole tolerances are presented

The AMIGA sample of isolated galaxies. V. Quantification of the isolation

The AMIGA project aims to build a well defined and statistically significant reference sample of isolated galaxies in order to estimate the environmental effects on the formation and evolution of galaxies. The goal of this paper is to provide a measure of the environment of the isolated galaxies in the AMIGA sample, quantifying the influence of the candidate neighbours identified in our previous work and their potential effects on the evolution of the primary galaxies. Here we provide a quantification of the isolation degree of the galaxies in this sample. Our starting sample is the Catalogue of Isolated Galaxies (CIG). We used two parameters to estimate the influence exerted by the neighbour galaxies on the CIG galaxy: the local number density of neighbour galaxies and the tidal strength affecting the CIG galaxy. We show that both parameters together provide a comprehensive picture of the environment. For comparison, those parameters have also been derived for galaxies in denser environments such as triplets, groups and clusters. The CIG galaxies show a continuous spectrum of isolation, as quantified by the two parameters, from very isolated to interacting. The fraction of CIG galaxies whose properties are expected to be influenced by the environment is however low (159 out of 950 galaxies). The isolated parameters derived for the comparsion samples gave higher values than for the CIG and we found clear differences for the average values of the 4 samples considered, proving the sensitivity of these parameters. The environment of the galaxies in the CIG has been characterised, using two complementary parameters quantifying the isolation degree, the local number density of the neighbour galaxies and the tidal forces affecting the isolated galaxies. (Abridged)Comment: 10 pages, 12 figures, proposed for acceptance A&

CRISPR-mediated antiviral defence in prokaryotes

cum laude graduation (with distinction

Ricin B chain targeted to the endoplasmic reticulum of tobacco protoplasts is degraded by a CDC48- and vacuole-independent mechanism

The B chain of ricin was expressed and delivered to the endoplasmic reticulum of tobacco protoplasts where it disappeared with time in a manner consistent with degradation. This turnover did not occur in the vacuoles or upon secretion. Indeed, several lines of evidence indicate that, in contrast to the turnover of endoplasmic reticulum-targeted ricin A chain in the cytosol, the bulk of expressed ricin B chain was degraded in the secretory pathway