Inequality in developing economies: The role of institutional development

In the present paper we study the distributive impact of institutional change in developing countries. In such economies, economic institutions, such as property rights systems, may act to preserve the interests of a rich minority, but this depends crucially on the level of political equality. For example, dominant classes can control key-markets, access to assets and investment opportunities, especially if they enjoy disproportionate political power. We test this hypothesis using cross-section and panel data methods on a sample of low- and middle-income economies from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Results suggest that: (a) increasing the protection of property rights increases income inequality; (b) such an effect is larger in low-democracy environments; (c) a minority of countries have developed a set political institutions capable of counterbalancing this effect.Inequality, developing economies, institutions, property rights, democracy

Inflation Expectations and the Two Forms of Inattentiveness

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the structure and dynamics of professionals' forecast of inflation. Recent papers have focused on their forecast errors and how they may be affected by informational rigidities, or inattentiveness. In this paper we extend the existing literature by considering a second form of inattentiveness. While showing that both types of inattentiveness are closely related, we focus on the inattentiveness that forecasters face when undertaking multi-period forecast and, thereby, the expected momentum of inflation. Using number survey-based data for the US and UK, we establish a new structure for the professional's forecast error with direct implications for the persistence of real effect

Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Who Are the 'Active' and 'Passive' Learners?

Recent research has established that households learn from professional forecasters as they form their inflation expectations. Professionals forecasts are transmitted, or ‘absorbed’, throughout the population slowly but eventually. This provides the microfoundations for ‘sticky information expectations’. The present paper considers whether absorption rates take place heterogeneously amongst households. We consider whether various segments of the population absorb the professional’s forecasts at different rates. Using a unique survey-based dataset covering various segments of the UK population we identify ‘active’ and ‘passive’ learners in the population. ‘Active’ and ‘passive’ learners are identified and distinguished by their respective absorption rates. The present analyses also consider whether these absorption rates are non-linear

Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey

The purpose of the present paper is to study how households form inflation expectations. Using a novel survey-base dataset of Italian households’ opinions of inflation we investigate two separate, but related, types of behavior: ‘inattentiveness’ and ‘anchoring’. The present analysis extends the existing literature by incorporating explicitly inflation targets and distinguishing between aggregate and disaggregate dynamics based on demographic groups. In addition, we extend the literature by considering both the short- and long-run dynamics as households update their inflation expectations while also accounting for their state-varying behavior. All these issues provide important insights into understanding actual inflation dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy

Household Inflation Expectations: Information Gathering, Inattentive or ‘Stubborn’?

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the microfoundations of how non-experts’ (or general public) form inflation expectations. Using a unique dataset we investigate the range of near rational inflation expectations. An important contribution to understanding how non-experts form their expectations is ‘sticky information expectations’, specifically the epidemiological model. Our analysis uses an extended version of the epidemiological model. We find that the general public are best depicted as those who are either information gathers or inattentive. In addition, the inattentive general public can be either forward-looking or ‘stubborn’, that is persistent

Inequality in Developing Economies: The Role of Institutional Development

This paper studies the distributive impact of institutional change in developing countries. In such economies, property rights systems may preserve the interests of an influential minority, who can control key-markets, access to assets and investment opportunities, especially if they enjoy disproportionate political power. We test this hypothesis using cross-section and panel data methods on a sample of low- and middle-income economies from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Results suggest that: (a) increasing property rights protection increases income inequality; (b) this effect is larger in low-democracy environments; (c) few countries have developed political institutions capable of counterbalancing this effect.Inequality, developing economies, institutions, property rights, democracy.

Tobacco smoking and all-cause mortality in a large Australian cohort study: findings from a mature epidemic with current low smoking prevalence

This study finds that up to two-thirds of deaths in current smokers  in Australia can be attributed to smoking. Abstract Background The smoking epidemic in Australia is characterised by historic levels of prolonged smoking, heavy smoking, very high levels of long-term cessation, and low current smoking prevalence, with 13% of adults reporting that they smoked daily in 2013. Large-scale quantitative evidence on the relationship of tobacco smoking to mortality in Australia is not available despite the potential to provide independent international evidence about the contemporary risks of smoking. Methods This is a prospective study of 204,953 individuals aged ≥45 years sampled from the general population of New South Wales, Australia, who joined the 45 and Up Study from 2006–2009, with linked questionnaire, hospitalisation, and mortality data to mid-2012 and with no history of cancer (other than melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer), heart disease, stroke, or thrombosis. Hazard ratios (described here as relative risks, RRs) for all-cause mortality among current and past smokers compared to never-smokers were estimated, adjusting for age, education, income, region of residence, alcohol, and body mass index. Results Overall, 5,593 deaths accrued during follow-up (874,120 person-years; mean: 4.26 years); 7.7% of participants were current smokers and 34.1% past smokers at baseline. Compared to never-smokers, the adjusted RR (95% CI) of mortality was 2.96 (2.69–3.25) in current smokers and was similar in men (2.82 (2.49–3.19)) and women (3.08 (2.63–3.60)) and according to birth cohort. Mortality RRs increased with increasing smoking intensity, with around two- and four-fold increases in mortality in current smokers of ≤14 (mean 10/day) and ≥25 cigarettes/day, respectively, compared to never-smokers. Among past smokers, mortality diminished gradually with increasing time since cessation and did not differ significantly from never-smokers in those quitting prior to age 45. Current smokers are estimated to die an average of 10 years earlier than non-smokers. Conclusions In Australia, up to two-thirds of deaths in current smokers can be attributed to smoking. Cessation reduces mortality compared with continuing to smoke, with cessation earlier in life resulting in greater reductions

Diagnóstico de la empresa familiar “Foto Estudio Matagalpa”, Matagalpa, al 2011

En el presente estudio se realizo un diagnóstico de la empresa familiar “Foto Estudio Matagalpa”, en Matagalpa, al 2011, el cual permite saber cómo es la situación de la empresa familiar “Foto Estudio Matagalpa”, tomando en cuenta los factores que afectan y los factores que favorecen al desarrollo de la empresa. Los resultados obtenidos revelaron que en la empresa familiar “Foto Estudio Matagalpa” todos los trabajadores son miembros de la familia y el propietario promueve un adecuado clima organizacional, ya que existe constante comunicación entre el propietario y los trabajadores y se sienten motivados a trabajar, sin embargo no están claramente definidas las áreas funcionales de la empresa, ni las funciones de cada trabajador. Los clientes consideran que la atención brindada en “Foto Estudio Matagalpa” es excelente en comparación con otros centros fotográficos, ya que las personas que los atienden son amables; también opinan que la calidad de la foto es excelente por lo que recomendarían este servicio a otras personas y estarían dispuestos a volver a visitar el negocio. El propietario de la empresa tiene ideas innovadoras para el crecimiento del negocio y el apoyo de su familia para desarrollar nuevos proyectos. Para analizar la situación financiera de la empresa es necesario llevar una contabilidad formal que permita tomar decisiones efectivas en la empresa. Es importante definir las funciones de cada trabajador de acuerdo a sus puestos de trabajo para mejorar el funcionamiento de la empresa. La empresa tiene que utilizar diferentes medios publicitarios para adquirir una mayor demanda del producto e incrementar el volumen de venta

Erectile Dysfunction Severity as a Risk Marker for Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalisation and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Erectile dysfunction is an emerging risk marker for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events; however, evidence on dose response and specific CVD outcomes is limited. This study investigates the relationship between severity of erectile dysfunction and specific CVD outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS We conducted a prospective population-based Australian study (the 45 and Up Study) linking questionnaire data from 2006-2009 with hospitalisation and death data to 30 June and 31 Dec 2010 respectively for 95,038 men aged ≥45 y. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the relationship of reported severity of erectile dysfunction to all-cause mortality and first CVD-related hospitalisation since baseline in men with and without previous CVD, adjusting for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, marital status, income, education, physical activity, body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension and/or hypercholesterolaemia treatment. There were 7,855 incident admissions for CVD and 2,304 deaths during follow-up (mean time from recruitment, 2.2 y for CVD admission and 2.8 y for mortality). Risks of CVD and death increased steadily with severity of erectile dysfunction. Among men without previous CVD, those with severe versus no erectile dysfunction had significantly increased risks of ischaemic heart disease (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.60, 95% CI 1.31-1.95), heart failure (8.00, 2.64-24.2), peripheral vascular disease (1.92, 1.12-3.29), "other" CVD (1.26, 1.05-1.51), all CVD combined (1.35, 1.19-1.53), and all-cause mortality (1.93, 1.52-2.44). For men with previous CVD, corresponding RRs (95% CI) were 1.70 (1.46-1.98), 4.40 (2.64-7.33), 2.46 (1.63-3.70), 1.40 (1.21-1.63), 1.64 (1.48-1.81), and 2.37 (1.87-3.01), respectively. Among men without previous CVD, RRs of more specific CVDs increased significantly with severe versus no erectile dysfunction, including acute myocardial infarction (1.66, 1.22-2.26), atrioventricular and left bundle branch block (6.62, 1.86-23.56), and (peripheral) atherosclerosis (2.47, 1.18-5.15), with no significant difference in risk for conditions such as primary hypertension (0.61, 0.16-2.35) and intracerebral haemorrhage (0.78, 0.20-2.97). CONCLUSIONS These findings give support for CVD risk assessment in men with erectile dysfunction who have not already undergone assessment. The utility of erectile dysfunction as a clinical risk prediction tool requires specific testing.JC has received research grants from Servier, administered through the University of Sydney and The George Institute, as principal investigator for the ADVANCE trial and ADVANCE-ON post trial follow-up study, and have received honoraria from Servier for speaking about ADVANCE at Scientific meetings. PM has received payment from Pfizer for giving a lecture on the treatment of pulmonary hypertension. All other authors have declared that no competing interests exis