On the quality and value of probabilistic forecasts of wind generation

International audienceWhile most of the current forecasting methods provide single estimates of future wind generation, some methods now allow one to have probabilistic predictions of wind power. They are often given in the form of prediction intervals or quantile forecasts. Such forecasts, since they include the uncertainty information, can be seen as optimal for the management or trading of wind generation. This paper explores the differences and relations between the quality (i.e. statistical performance) and the operational value of these forecasts. An application is presented on the use of probabilistic predictions for bidding in a European electricity market. The benefits of a probabilistic view of wind power forecasting are clearly demonstrated

Data mining for wind power forecasting

International audienceShort-term forecasting of wind energy production up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution for reliable large-scale wind power integration. Increasing the value of wind generation through the improvement of prediction systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research needs for the coming years. This paper aims to evaluate Data Mining type of models for wind power forecasting. Models that are examined include neural networks, support vector machines, the recently proposed regression trees approach, and others. Evaluation results are presented for several real wind farms

Uncertainty estimation of wind power forecasts: Comparison of Probabilistic Modelling Approaches

International audienceShort-term wind power forecasting tools providing “single-valued” (spot) predictions are nowadays widely used. However, end-users may require to have additional information on the uncertainty associated to the future wind power production for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves estimation, unit commitment, trading in electricity markets, a.o. Several models for on-line uncertainty estimation have been proposed in the literature and new products from numerical weather prediction systems (ensemble predictions) have recently become available, which has increased the modelling possibilities. In order to provide efficient on-line uncertainty estimation, choices have to be made on which model and modelling architecture should be preferred. Towards this goal we proposes to classify different approaches and modelling architectures for probabilistic wind power forecasting. Then, a comparison is carried out on representatives models using real data from several wind farms

Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting based on kernel density estimators

International audienceShort-term wind power forecasting tools have been developed for some time. The majority of such tools usually provide single-valued (spot) predictions. Such predictions are however often not adequate when the aim is decision-making under uncertainty. In that case there is a clear requirement by end-users to have additional information on the uncertainty of the predictions for performing efficiently functions such as reserves estimation, unit commitment, trading in electricity markets, a.o. In this paper, we propose a method for producing the complete predictive probability density function (PDF) for each time step of the prediction horizon based on the kernel density estimation technique. The performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated using real data from several wind farms. Comparisons to state-of-the-art methods from both outside and inside the wind power forecasting community are presented illustrating the performances of the proposed method

Advanced strategies for wind power trading in short-term electricity markets

International audienceIndependent power producers have the possibility to participate in short-term electricity markets to trade wind power energy in several countries in Europe. Under such market context, penalties may apply for differences between the contracted energy and the produced energy. The limited predictability of the wind resource may thus result to a reduction of the competitiveness of wind power generation. In this paper, we propose a risk-based decision approach for optimizing the benefits of an energy producer who submits energy bids in a day-ahead electricity market. Loss functions are used to model the penalties resulting from imbalances. For achieving this, we use wind power probabilistic forecasts. The benefits from the approach are demonstrated using real-word data for a whole year

Reconnaissance Study on the Implementation of Case-Based Payments

To improve PhilHealth's benefits framework, enhance hospital services, and achieve one of the Universal Health Care's thrusts, greater financial protection, the case-based payment (CBP) scheme was implemented in 2011. CBP is a provider payment scheme initially implemented with rates for the 23 most common medical and surgical cases. This study investigates what has happened with CBP after its nationwide implementation through the perspectives of the following stakeholders, such as PhilHealth, administrators of health facilities, and health care providers. This also concerns operational aspects of the implementation not an assessment whether CBP helped achieve Universal Health Coverage for the Philippines. The approach used in this study is a mix of qualitative methods including desk review of the legal framework of health financing, administrative orders related to CBP, key informant interviews, and survey on health care providers. Areas of implementation were thematically grouped into four categories based on the results of interviews and survey, namely: 1) administration and system, 2) human resources, 3) medical integrity, and 4) financing.Overall, CBP needs improvement on the turnaround time for reimbursements to both health providers and hospitals, electronic updating of claims, membership directory, and physicians' accreditation statuses, shifting of policies from different implementing agencies, transparency, and impact evaluation processes for health outcomes

Feasibility of Supplemental Funds from the Private Sector for Catastrophic Illness Financing

Catastrophic illnesses can push a household into poverty by causing unmanageable, or catastrophic, expenditures for their treatment or management. Kalusugan Pangkalahatan aims to provide financial risk protection for the poor. Hence, insurance coverage for catastrophic illnesses need to be strengthened. However, the scope of the PhilHealth Z benefits, which was developed to protect Filipinos affected with certain medical conditions from financial catastrophe, is limited. This report provides an analysis of the feasibility of supplemental funds from the private sector, specifically from health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and self-insured companies, for the Z benefits program. Key informant interviews were conducted with representatives of PhilHealth, HMOs, and self-insured companies to determine the constraints, prospects, and requirements to implement a supplemental fund. Results were analyzed thematically.Establishing a supplemental fund from the private sector for catastrophic illness financing is currently not feasible. The supplemental fund can be lodged in PhilHealth or outsourced to HMOs. However, managing a supplemental fund would require operational, institutional, and legal changes to be made by PhilHealth. On the other hand, better regulation of the HMO industry is also required. Regardless of how the supplemental fund will be managed and implemented, it is imperative to conduct studies on the incidence and costing of catastrophic illnesses first to make the supplemental fund viable

Gouverner les SCOP comme un bien commun : une analyse en termes de cadrages/débordements

L’objectif de cet article est, premièrement, de contribuer positivement à une appréhension fine du fonctionnement démocratique des SCOP en identifiant leur spécificité (relativement à d’autres configurations organisationnelles) et en révélant leur diversité interne (malgré certaines caractéristiques communes). Notre raisonnement sera structuré comme suit : dans une première partie, on introduit un cadre analytique fondé sur l’articulation des principes hiérarchiques et démocratiques afin d’appréhender la spécificité (en statique et en dynamique) de l’entreprise coopérative (SCOP). Dans une seconde partie, on procède à une présentation ordonnée des résultats d’une étude portant sur la gouvernance des SCOP en Rhône Alpes. Ouvrir la boite noire des SCOP nous conduit alors à rendre compte de la diversité empirique de cette configuration productive et des tensions contradictoires qui structurent son développement. Le déploiement d’une telle démarche nous conduira à envisager le fonctionnement socio-économique concret des SCOP comme un art d’organiser démocratiquement les productions de valeurs, ce dernier devant prendre appui sur une diversité d’institutions de valorisation (Eymard-Duvernay, 2009) afin d’être "soutenable"

La qualité des relations sociales au sein des SCOP : premiers enseignements d'une enquête en Rhône-Alpes

Ce travail de recherche a été mené depuis le printemps 2012 jusqu'à l'automne 2013 et nous a amenés à enquêter auprès de 40 SCOP. Dans la première partie de ce rapport, nous présentons les éléments saillants de nos observations qui sont ressortis comme récurrents dans un grand nombre de cas. Nous en tirons un constat résumé par le titre de "la qualité des relations humaines au sein des SCOP" pour pointer des caractéristiques communes présentées en trois chapitres qui portent sur : - les indicateurs favorables de qualité de l'emploi ; - des collectifs participatifs et cohésifs ; - des organisations introspectives et adaptatives. En outre, la diversité est extrême à l'intérieur du monde des SCOP. Ce sera l'objet de la seconde partie de ce rapport où nous tenterons de développer des analyses pertinentes des différences entre les SCOP qui ressortent de notre enquête. C'est à travers trois chapitres que nous avancerons ces propositions d'analyse en nous fondant sur : - les diverses données recueillies sur les SCOP ; - les résultats des questionnaires adressés aux salariés ; - un essai de typologie des SCOP en 7 catégories

Insiders: Louisiana journalists Sallie Rhett Roman, Helen Grey Gilkison, Iris Turner Kelso

Sallie Rhett Roman, Helen Grey Gilkison and Iris Turner Kelso were three women journalists in Louisiana, active in consecutive time periods from 1891 to 1996. Their work brings up five particular questions. First, Why did these women start working and how did they negotiate public employment? Second, how did they balance the relationship between work and home since they did find employment outside of the home? Third, how did they fit into their contemporary image of women and journalists? Fourth, how did they use written language to portray a particular voice to the reader for a particular purpose? Fifth, did they choose to cover specifically male or female topics in their articles? Answering these questions reveals that these three women challenged traditional roles for women in different ways. Sallie Rhett Roman, wrote from 1891 to 1909, had to negotiate much more strict societal norms for women and portrayed herself as a male writer to her audience. Helen Grey Gilkison, active from the late 1920s to the late 1940s, did not mask her gender but encouraged the idea that she was a member of the political social club with political access. Iris Turner Kelso, working after World War II, portrayed herself as having access to politicians and political events, but only as a way to suggest that she could provide the reader the “straight scoop.” Each woman in her own way created an image of herself as an insider in the political process. By relying on the image of “insider,” these women did not overtly challenge the political or social system but rather supported it. Kelso was the only one who criticized those in politics and even she did not promote significant change in the political systems of New Orleans or the state of Louisiana